MCS_hunter Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Storms south of Cedar Rapids showing some nice rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 On 88 heading west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Nice looking cell. Looks like it's gonna ride 88 if it maintains, which it should given the environment out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Potent couplet west of Iowa City now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Hoping storm moving into IL can sustain itself. Looks okay for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Tornado watch likely coming for N IL/Chicagoland. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0551 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...N IL...SE IA...FAR NW INDCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...VALID 122251Z - 130015ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 411 ACROSS MUCH OFNRN IL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARYHAZARD...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BEPOSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...A PREVIOUSLY INTENSE STORM WITHIN WW 411 OVER CLINTONCOUNTY IA LIKELY PRODUCED A SEVERE DOWNBURST WITH 49 KT WINDSMEASURED AT 2220Z AT THE DEWITT RWIS SITE. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HASBECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF IL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURESIN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...AROUND 6 DEG C/KMFROM 700-500 MB PER 18Z DVN RAOB. BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BEFAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 40 KT PERLOT/DVN VWP DATA. STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSETO THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE S-CNTRL CANADIAN/N-CNTRLCONUS BORDER. SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOPEWD THROUGH THE EVENING CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...GRAMS.. 07/12/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Iowa City storm a Severe Warning with reports of funnel clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 78/75 in the brook.... 850 transport really kickin' now over central thru northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Stopped at Annie Glidden rd in DKB along 88. Seems messy now but waiting if it can get it's act together again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Weak mid level lapse rates seen to be making these storms struggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Weak mid level lapse rates seen to be making these storms struggle Yup, these are Northeast lapse rates that they are working with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Looking more decent and has that mini sup look on radar now west of Dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Rainfall is predicted to be around 2 to 5 inches, I don't see the need for a tornado watch. At least as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Tops of Sterling storm just shot up to 50kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Rainfall is predicted to be around 2 to 5 inches, I don't see the need for a tornado watch. At least as of right now. Parameters are decent enough with a strengthening LLJ and storms have already developed. Really not more time to wait to issue one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 81/78 at Morris, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 A more modest 79°/71° here. That cell near DBQ is really going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Thinking the cell merger about to take place on the Lee County IL cell might do the trick. Eff sig tor 2-3 and incredibly high humidity through the column should allow for a sustained tornado threat for several hours into the night if this storm can really organize itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 A more modest 79°/71° here. That cell near DBQ is really going. Was just gonna say....yeah, that thing looks nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 watch for N IL is imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 A more modest 79°/71° here. That cell near DBQ is really going. It is at that. The one by Ottumwa looks pretty wild as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 It is at that. The one by Ottumwa looks pretty wild as well. Well that one is severe warned ... yet! Cells really starting to fire off in S WI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 The one by Ottumwa seems to be weakening ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Happy I passed on today's potential chase and did other things instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 NW IL complex looks solid. Several WAA wing storms going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 So no tor watch for N IL it appears. Complex in NW IL holding it's own. Looks to march into much of LOT on its current path. 77/77 here. Swamp-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Wind and tornado threat likely increasing for Carroll County IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Backfilling out by Cedar Rapids. First glance at the radar wouldn't suggest Flash Flood potential, but looks to be a good setup out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Mesoscale Discussion 1350 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...N IL...SE IA/WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411... VALID 130209Z - 130315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE. STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WITH A CLUSTER EVOLVING E/SE FROM NW IL. DISCUSSION...DESPITE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR...TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO YIELD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BEYOND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY IN PART DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL STORM INTENSITY HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...EXCEPT FOR A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OVER STEPHENSON/CARROLL COUNTY IL. AMIDST LARGEST GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS N IL TO FAR S WI...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES TOWARD CHICAGOLAND. ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 40599195 40719221 40849228 41029215 41569078 42268993 42918868 42898775 42258751 41748740 41438765 40948865 40558972 40499074 40599195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Tornado likely forming in Mercer County, IL south of the Quad Cities. Very wrapped-up supercell intensifying in the low-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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