cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm concerned about the 4km NAM showing what may be quasi-discrete convection in the metro later. This seems like a situation where there might be an unwelcomed lake-driven baroclinicity-induced surprise in the metro or NWI this evening. Yeah that model definitely looks a bit concerning.. Updraft helicity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm concerned about the 4km NAM showing what may be quasi-discrete convection in the metro later. This seems like a situation where there might be an unwelcomed lake-driven baroclinicity-induced surprise in the metro or NWI this evening. Yeah just looked. That sure is interesting. Add the training and heavy rainfall threat late tonight on that run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Areas just northwest of Champaign and into Champaign have received 4 to 7" of rain per reports. Champaign alone has received 4.60" in the last 4 hours, just goes to show you how juicy the atmosphere is today. If Chicago were to get trained this evening into tonight it could get very bad very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The 14z HRRR is pretty scary for eastern IA with that all by itself supercell. You can see it enhancing it's near storm environment in the sfc wind field and sig tor max out to it's immediate SE in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The 14z HRRR is pretty scary for eastern IA with that all by itself supercell. You can see it enhancing it's near storm environment in the sfc wind field and sig tor max out to it's immediate SE in model land. Yeah it shows that beast riding along an area of some higher mid-level support as well. Showing a nice pocket of 55kts at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Yeah it shows that beast riding along an area of some higher mid-level support as well. Showing a nice pocket of 55kts at H5. I'd hope you're heading west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'd hope you're heading west Yeah I just might. 15z HRRR came in a bit wimpy. Hopefully it's just an off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 12z god model also very interesting with a long E-W line of supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 More subtle forcing and stronger deep layer shear seem to suggest supercells. Anyone else remember this event? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20070815 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 patches of blue sky overhead.....72/71 currently low level clouds hauling butt out of the SW .... mid level clouds sliding at much lower pace due east... a casual non-met obs that i'm sure is obvious to most but.....the racing low level clouds always seems to be indicative of a decent event in the making down the road in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Really afraid of any more rain. Leaking in basement and have never had an issue. All my friends and neighbors also getting water. Most of us never had any issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 New day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS TO WRN PA/NY... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS OREGON. ..SYNOPSIS A LARGE POSITIVELY-TITLED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES. MIDLEVEL IMPULSES...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE REGIONS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF CA NEAR 35.5N/133.7W REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ORE/WA AFTER 14/00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD THROUGH THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION MOVING INTO OK AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE NERN EXTENT OF THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ..OH/MID MS VALLEYS A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW OF 1.75-2+ INCHES/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIABATIC HEATING AND THE RICH MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. GRADUALLY-STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THESE SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 35-40 KT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Gonna head out towards Marshalltown here in a bit and hope for the best. At the least I'm hoping I can get some decent structure shots with the new Nikon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Still no sun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 DVN: .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT MIDDAY WILL LEAD TOCONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THESOUTH...AS CLEARING SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER S CENTRAL IAPROGRESSES EASTWARD. MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THENORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CAP HIGHS CLOSER TO80...WHILE THE SOUTH SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO90. SEVERAL MOSTLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL MESOSCALEBOUNDARIES IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL BE WATCHED AS CONVECTION ISLIKELY TO BREAK OUT WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND AMID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY ACTS AS ATRIGGER. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE LOW LEVELBACKING SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL STORMS WITHDAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THISTIME...THIS IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NW AFTER 3 PM ANDSPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THE PARAMETERS FROM OUR 18Z SPECIAL UPPERAIR SOUNDING THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Yeah low level clouds are zipping by. Dark skies to the west with some clear spots here currently. The air has that feeling like something's gonna happen. Had the windows recaulked this morning. Should be put to the test tonight. patches of blue sky overhead.....72/71 currently low level clouds hauling butt out of the SW .... mid level clouds sliding at much lower pace due east... a casual non-met obs that i'm sure is obvious to most but.....the racing low level clouds always seems to be indicative of a decent event in the making down the road in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Yeah low level clouds are zipping by. Dark skies to the west with some clear spots here currently. The air has that feeling like something's gonna happen. Had the windows recaulked this morning. Should be put to the test tonight. good luck with the caulk job! weaker ribbon of convergence running from Galesburg to Des Moines @ 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 12z god model also very interesting with a long E-W line of supercells I'm kind of confused about which model is the "god" model. I know it is one of the versions of the 4 km WRF, but which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm kind of confused about which model is the "god" model. I know it is one of the versions of the 4 km WRF, but which one? Most people refer to the god model, or disciple model which is just the WRF-NMM 4km SPC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Most people refer to the god model, or disciple model which is just the WRF-NMM 4km SPC run. Ah, I thought it was actually separate from the SPC WRF, thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 5% tor probs extended well east on the 20z update, into Lower MI/N IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 MCD for southern half or so of Iowa.... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SRN HALF OF IA / FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 122048Z - 122245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMING REMAINS UNCLEAR BUT THE POTENTIAL ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT OVER CNTRL IA WWD INTO FAR ERN NEB. CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAVE RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CNTRL IL ARCING WNWWD INTO W-CNTRL IA INTERSECTING THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND INTO THE LOWER 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 19Z RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z DVN RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER SRN IA...RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE REMAINING CINH AND UPWARDS OF 1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE. THE KDMX VWP SHOWS AROUND 40 KT AT H5 FLOW AND WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS --ONCE STORMS FORM. DESPITE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING NEWD ACROSS WI INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT INFLUENCING THE REGION NAMELY IN THE FORM OF UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION AND THE CONCURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND NRN IL WILL BE NEEDED TO PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..SMITH/HART.. 07/12/2014 90/77 @ SDA in SW Iowa.... shticky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet on this thread but the heavy rains earlier today wiped out the Taste of Chicago in its entirety for today (it's still on for tomorrow). Tribune story: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-weather-forecast-20140712,0,4965822.story?track=rss Also the John Deere Classic PGA tournament in the QCs (Silvis) is also within the area noted in the SPC's latest MD (plus the CBS announcers said earlier that the overnight rains and the threat of more storms today resulted in split-course play (IIRC--I am not a golf expert, I just have it on TV now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Davenport to Galena starting to pop a bit.... and the HRRR advertised Des Moines area cell starting to pop too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 21z mesoanalysis of T/Td shows a pretty good thermodynamic boundary lied out across nrn IL/nrn IN. Gotta really watch storms in that area this evening. Boundary could serve as a solenoidal vorticity generation zone and a region of increased helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA NORTHWEST ILLINOIS NORTHERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAMONI IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH MID-EVE IN MOIST...VERY WARM...AND CONFLUENT WSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF ACCELERATING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NE IA TO SE NEB. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ENE ACROSS NEB/IA AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER SRN MB. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING LLJ...MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 If the DVN storm can survive it's slow trek east awhile I'm going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 If the DVN storm can survive it's slow trek east awhile I'm going for it. Got a nice hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Got a nice hook. That has become very nice very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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