IsentropicLift Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Heaviest rains come in Tuesday night as a wave develops on the front and rides north. That's fairly well agreed upon in the modeling today. Some places could pick up a quick 1-3" in that time period alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 WPC reduced the precip amounts in the metro - if this verifies should be few flooding problems considering how dry its been the last few weeks maybe some localized brief flooding in poor drainage areas http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 WPC reduced the precip amounts in the metro - if this verifies should be few flooding problems considering how dry its been the last few weeks maybe some localized brief flooding in poor drainage areas http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif We could definitely use it on Long Island, where it's been bone dry since June. Luckily, these kind of systems that are more synoptic in nature during the summer can deliver it to us. Quick frontal boundary passages and T-storm outbreaks are usually DOA once past Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 We could definitely use it on Long Island, where it's been bone dry since June. Luckily, these kind of systems that are more synoptic in nature during the summer can deliver it to us. Quick frontal boundary passages and T-storm outbreaks are usually DOA once past Queens. YUP! couldn't of said it better. if storms don't hit in the morning or we don't get synoptic rains over a frontal passage its VERY boring around here, save for the rogue summer thunderstorm of garden variety. same every year, winter-spring with some rain then a boring summer, maybe some autumn coastal storms than back into winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 YUP! couldn't of said it better. if storms don't hit in the morning or we don't get synoptic rains over a frontal passage its VERY boring around here, save for the rogue summer thunderstorm of garden variety. same every year, winter-spring with some rain then a boring summer, maybe some autumn coastal storms than back into winter By your descriptions, anyone who's a weather enthusiast on Long Island should just jump in the tub with a toaster and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 WPC reduced the precip amounts in the metro - if this verifies should be few flooding problems considering how dry its been the last few weeks maybe some localized brief flooding in poor drainage areas http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif I've always thought that 2-3" was a safe bet with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 So far 21z SREF and 00z NAM have really upped QPF. 00z NAM doesn't clear out eastern sections until Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 358 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THEFOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERNFAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERNNEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEWJERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERNSUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERNWESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER ANDSOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK.* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSSTHE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE FORTHESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE TORRENTIALDOWNPOURS...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES.LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCREASE THEFLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.* THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OFURBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREASOF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAYEXCEED BANKFULL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONSHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 358 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX... SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC... EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX... WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. obviously flooding is a concern these next couple days but I still feel fairly confident in a decent severe threat today and tomorrow, especially for tomorrow anywhere in the tri state area chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 obviously flooding is a concern these next couple days but I still feel fairly confident in a decent severe threat today and tomorrow, especially for tomorrow anywhere in the tri state area chris Yeah, we often get severe storms during these flash flood threats this time of year. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... AREAS OF EARLY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY NON-SEVERE. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS VA IN THE LEE TROUGH...WITH SLY SURFACE WINDS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS FROM THE DELMARVA NWD TO THE OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN PA/SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NRN VA ACROSS ERN PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG...SMALL LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT COULD HELP A FEW STORMS ACQUIRE ROTATION...WITH A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE AND/OR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WITH SMALL BOWS. THE GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP HAIL MAINLY SMALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Flash point today on the 09z SREF is from about 18z to 00z and then coverage should be widespread till about 09z. Then tommorrow flash point is between 12z and 15z with widespread activity by 18z-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 .68" yesterday and overnight... look forward to seeing what today offers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 03z SREF plumes were pretty impressive west of the city. Precip went up some on the 09z SREF mean so I would assume we should see another uptick in these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The NAM seems to be focusing on tonight and then again tomorrow night into Wednesday morning as the timeframes for heaviest rain with tomorrow during the day mostly dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Latest 09z SREF plumes max of 4.77" at KMMU, 2.68" at KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Not really getting talked about much but parts of the Passaic river are actually forecasted to rise to minor flood levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The NAM seems to be focusing on tonight and then again tomorrow night into Wednesday morning as the timeframes for heaviest rain with tomorrow during the day mostly dry Sometimes these training events are underforecasted-I know that no model had anyone having over 10" of rain before the deluge in August 2011 a week before Irene like my town did. 2-3" of rain is probably the safe bet but it wouldn't surprise me if places see more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sometimes these training events are underforecasted-I know that no model had anyone having over 10" of rain before the deluge in August 2011 a week before Irene like my town did. 2-3" of rain is probably the safe bet but it wouldn't surprise me if places see more than that. Seeing many SREF members > 3" with a few much higher than that is definitly a wet signal. Flash flooding seems likely. A lot of this could fall in relativly short bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Seeing many SREF members > 3" with a few much higher than that is definitly a wet signal. Flash flooding seems likely. A lot of this could fall in relativly short bursts. 100% agree here especially in short bursts with a heavier thunderstorm where you can pick up 1"+ in no time. The areas with the most convective activity through wednesday morning will jackpot, however west and east of NYC is still a wild card. Ive seen situations where totals were high west and east of NYC with less in NYC proper so this should be interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 100% agree here especially in short bursts with a heavier thunderstorm where you can pick up 1"+ in no time. The areas with the most convective activity through wednesday morning will jackpot, however west and east of NYC is still a wild card. Ive seen situations where totals were high west and east of NYC with less in NYC proper so this should be interesting to say the least It's sort of interesting, the 12z NAM has the heaviest activity over eastern sections between 2AM and 8AM on Wednesday. I think most people think we'll have cleared out by then. The mainstream media certainly seems to be portraying that Wednesday will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 1.15" here from the storms last night...that serves as a nice precursor event to saturate the ground for whatever falls today and tomorrow. I think a widespread 2-3" is likely but higher amounts are definitely possible in localized areas. HRRR has 2-3" of rain in much of the immediate metro area just through 10 pm tonight so we'll see. And it has 40+ kts of 0-6 km shear just west of the city in NNJ later today which could definitely make things interesting. Looks like convection will become widespread in the area after about 2 pm. Then let the fun begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 1.15" here from the storms last night...that serves as a nice precursor event to saturate the ground for whatever falls today and tomorrow. I think a widespread 2-3" is likely but higher amounts are definitely possible in localized areas. HRRR has 2-3" of rain in much of the immediate metro area just through 10 pm tonight so we'll see. And it has 40+ kts of 0-6 km shear just west of the city in NNJ later today which could definitely make things interesting. Looks like convection will become widespread in the area after about 2 pm. Then let the fun begin. From your lips to God's ears. It's been awhile since we've had an event like this on our doorstep. Most have fizzled out as we drew closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Update from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z GFS really slowed down. Wow Euro win! Deluge now on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z GFS really slowed down. Wow Euro win! Deluge now on Wednesday. lets combine the 2 threads please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 lets combine the 2 threads please I'm not a moderator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY753 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0739 PM FLASH FLOOD WESTPORT 41.12N 73.35W07/14/2014 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTERWIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING REPORTED. 1 CAR STRANDED ONMYRTLE AVE. ROADS IMPASSABLE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY743 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0738 PM FLASH FLOOD PATERSON 40.91N 74.16W07/14/2014 PASSAIC NJ PUBLICRIVER STREET IN PATERSON IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY733 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0727 PM FLASH FLOOD THORNWOOD 41.11N 73.76W07/14/2014 WESTCHESTER NY PUBLICWATER RESCUES ON THE TACONIC STATE PARKWAY NEAR STEVENSAVENUE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY731 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0729 PM FLASH FLOOD GLEN ROCK 40.96N 74.13W07/14/2014 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTERMAPLE AVENUE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING JUST WEST OF ROCKROAD INTERSECTION. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY656 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0630 PM FLASH FLOOD MOUNT PLEASANT 41.10N 73.79W07/14/2014 WESTCHESTER NY LAW ENFORCEMENTSEVERAL CARS STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS UP TO CAR DOORSNEAR BRADHURST AVENUE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY652 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0646 PM FLASH FLOOD CHAPPAQUA 41.16N 73.77W07/14/2014 WESTCHESTER NY PUBLICNORTH GREELEY AVENUE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 0454 PM FLASH FLOOD LAKEWOOD 40.10N 74.22W07/14/2014 OCEAN NJ 911 CALL CENTERWIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IN LAKEWOOD WITHROADS IMPASSABLE AND SOME CLOSURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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