Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Think that language from LWX is standard anyway. Pretty much any severe event could have tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Yeah, I get that. I agree that the AFD isn't really a tool that the public consumes or a tool made for them. Color me cautious, but if you are providing forecasts, it seems like you'd want to highlight and downplay like hell. Then again, I imagine the second you mention possible tors most people stop focusing on the real threats (rain and wind). People love shock value - That's one of the areas where social media has done this field a great disservice. False and exaggerated info is fanned out way quicker and w/o verification of accuracy. I know Ian and most folks who have been in the hobby a while hate the "tornado pictures" that are not tornadoes at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if SPC paints a 30% for tomorrow on a day 1 outlook. Not sure exactly what the placement would be but I think we've seen less favorable setups get a 30% for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if SPC paints a 30% for tomorrow on a day 1 outlook. Not sure exactly what the placement would be but I think we've seen less favorable setups get a 30% for wind. Kinda doubt it locally.. maybe for NW parts of the area. Maybe SW PA back into WV/OH/KY? edit: I see OH isn't even in the slight risk so maybe I need to look closer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Kinda doubt it locally.. maybe for NW parts of the area. Maybe SW PA back into WV/OH/KY? edit: I see OH isn't even in the slight risk so maybe I need to look closer lol. If we somehow got better shear tomorrow maybe I guess. This has turned into a more run-of-the-mill event for us I suppose. Waste of such an anomalous 500mb feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 If we somehow got better shear tomorrow maybe I guess. This has turned into a more run-of-the-mill event for us I suppose. Waste of such an anomalous 500mb feature. CIPS likes NW but then up into New England. I suppose that makes sense. Jul 1994 still there near the top. Mon Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 If current models hold I'd think we get back into a svr zone for Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 If current models hold I'd think we get back into a svr zone for Tue. Let's go for back to back 15% days - tho I'm sure somebody in the usual suspect zone in N or NE MD will report a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 If current models hold I'd think we get back into a svr zone for Tue. If 12z GFS is truth then there does appear to be a small window on Tuesday where there is decent instability and bulk shear. If I had to put money on it, I would still say the best chances for Tue are further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Real or imagined? To be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 10% chance of STP getting above 1 on Tuesday. 0 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Hmm...should be an interesting two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 If I was a layperson Didn't realize you is clergy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Didn't realize you is clergy lol - which you are a part of. Most if not everyone who posts on this board have a higher knowledge of weather than the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Glanced at the Euro - looks a little slower from what I've seen so far with the progression at H5 (comparing to 0z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Does this thread also include today's threat? If so... 90/76.. Toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Does this thread also include today's threat? If so... 90/76.. Toasty. Is it sunny down there? Been under clouds all day, it's only 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Hmm...should be an interesting two days. If you like run of the mill showers. Seems like people are grasping at straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 If you like run of the mill showers. Seems like people are grasping at straws here. Good way to make your point quite poorly. Kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Euro still has a nice vort pass tue but it's like 6 hrs too early maybe. Could still work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Does this thread also include today's threat? If so... 90/76.. Toasty. My reading also. Maxed at 91.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Tonight risk from LWX AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...AS OF 18Z...THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS SET UP WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THEAREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN A COUPLE DEGREES TO AROUND 70F SINCEDAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING WSW FROM THEERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH INDIANAPOLIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVEBROKEN OUT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THESE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE MOSTSIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHT IS A GOODOPERATIVE WORD AS THE 15Z HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THEPOTOMAC HIGHLANDS AROUND 6PM AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA AFTERTHAT. 6PM TO 2AM IS THE ANTICIPATED TIMEFRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOENTER THE AREA AND REACH THE BALT-WASH METRO. THE COLD FRONT WILLSTALL OR EVEN RETROGRADE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVEMONDAY.INCREASING MOISTURE IS MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE AFTERNOON. RAPESTIMATES FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE DEPICTS 1500 TO 3000 J/KG SOUTHOF DC. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE THAT HAS BEEN STRONGSOUTHEAST OF DC. AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD SEE SOME TSTMDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH THE CU FIELD CURRENTLY SEEMSTO BE STRUGGLING TO TAKE HOLD). WITH BULK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS THISWOULD BE PULSE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...IT IS A WAITING GAME FOR THEOHIO ACTIVITY WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE SINCE 18Z.TONIGHT...BULK SHEAR INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWINGMULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. PWATS APPROACHING 2IN WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVYRAIN...SO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SLYFLOW KEEP MIN TEMPS UP...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Monday from LWX AFD .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SECONDARY LOBE OF DEEP LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES SWINGS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AMPLIFYING THETROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST STATES INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE STALLEDFRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT FOR OVER 24 HRS. THERE SHOULDBE A DIURNAL EBB AND FLOW OF ACTIVITY WITH MONDAY EVENING (ACROSSTHE CWA) AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE)BEING THE MOST HIGH IMPACT TIMES. SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVELSHEAR PROFILES STILL LOOK TOO WEAK TO PROVIDE A TORNADO THREAT.HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC DAY 2 UPDATEDOES MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.THIS WOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME TORNADO THREAT...SO THAT THREATWILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED BY SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 New MD just to our north. Possibility of the watch being expanded further east across central/eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 New MD just to our north. Possibility of the watch being expanded further east across central/eastern PA. WOUS64 KWNS 132004WOU4 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 405 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-021-043-140300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0414.140713T2005Z-140714T0300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY FREDERICK WASHINGTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS VALLEY INTO NY/PA... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE FORECAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OREGON...EASTERN COLORADO...AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. ADDED A SMALL AREA OF LOW SVR WIND PROBS TO PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WWD-MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW. LOCALIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL HAVE SOME ENHANCED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PW VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES...AND MID-LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WRAPPING AROUND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. MINOR EWD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SLIGHT RISK WERE MADE OVER PORTIONS OF MD/WV/PA WHERE UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS HAVE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MOVING EWD WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. SEE ALSO MCD 1356 FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NY AND MUCH OF PA. ISOLATED SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN WY...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. REF MCD 1355 FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM THINKING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. ..BUNTING.. 07/13/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/ ...MID MS VALLEY INTO NY/PA... A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MO/IL INTO NY/PA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN PA/SOUTHERN NY INTO IND/IL ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY...PROMOTING ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FROM MO INTO KS/OK. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...EASTERN CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ...AZ... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. ENHANCED EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL AFFECT AZ TODAY...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ. FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 The sun has finally decided to make an appearance up here, just as we got out of the pool. Anywho, nice cluster of storms way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 18z NAM is not quite as deep with the 500mb low as it was on the 12z run but it also looks maybeee a hair slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 On the COD side NAM really confines best instability on Tuesday east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Seems like decent consensus at this pt the shortwave embedded in the ULL makes its best pass around 18z tue. Perhaps we can screw up both days if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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