Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 NAM seems a bit slower than its 18z run but we are not seeing that closed contour 500 low right through MI. Might still be okay - who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 NAM seems a bit slower than its 18z run but we are not seeing that closed contour 500 low right through MI. Might still be okay - who knows. certainly keeps the front back enough to allow Tuesday to be another storm day, and the winds aloft look robust. But man, the progged 850 flow Tuesday afternoon is anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 On my phone but doesn't look super great for Tue. Losing faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 certainly keeps the front back enough to allow Tuesday to be another storm day, and the winds aloft look robust. But man, the progged 850 flow Tuesday afternoon is anemic. Winds are pretty mediocre after the morning all around. We'd get storms prob on the early side but nothing super special probably. At this rate it's hard to think the Euro is completely right and the wimpier solutions are wrong... not to mention the Euro didn't look as good at 12z as it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 I get back to DC just before the "event" is progged to begin, so the bust calls will probably verify #atmosphericmemory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 I could be mistaken, but didn't June 1989 also have the height falls/SW flow without the speedier winds below 700mb? Certainly didn't stop that storm from blasting the trees on Connecticut Ave to smithereens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Winds are pretty mediocre after the morning all around. We'd get storms prob on the early side but nothing super special probably. At this rate it's hard to think the Euro is completely right and the wimpier solutions are wrong... not to mention the Euro didn't look as good at 12z as it has. I guess if Tuesday starts to slip out from under us we have Monday - let's just crank Monday and consider anything Tuesday a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 GFS is pretty different again... And again, deeper @ 500mb over MI with that lobe. Haven't looked at sfc yet, or anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 And again, deeper @ 500mb over MI with that lobe. Haven't looked at sfc yet, or anything else Remember tho that earlier runs had that 552 contour closing off over central MI. This is a decent bit north. We'll probably get severe on Monday - Tuesday might be an anemic day - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 We'll get back to you on that one. Thanks for the help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Thanks for the help Can't really tell whether we're getting tornadoes or not this far out - all we can really say is that severe weather is possible. As you can see the models are shifting a good bit with each cycle. Tornadoes are very small scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Remember tho that earlier runs had that 552 contour closing off over central MI. This is a decent bit north. We'll probably get severe on Monday - Tuesday might be an anemic day - we'll see. My guess is we end up compromising on timing of the 2nd front, but I'm not sure about the lobe over MI. The GFS has been oscillating w/ that feature quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Still rolling out on COD so hard to say much but can't imagine it's amazing Tue with the 500 low so far north. Euro might be wrong. But, we will get storms at least either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Still rolling out on COD so hard to say much but can't imagine it's amazing Tue with the 500 low so far north. Euro might be wrong. But, we will get storms at least either way. Monday looks pretty decent with sup comp parameter on the 00z NAM. Tuesday looks pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Monday looks pretty decent with sup comp parameter on the 00z NAM. Tuesday looks pretty meh. It's hard to punt Tue yet but I'm having trouble being too excited about it at this point that's for sure. Shear is not coupled with instability on the American models and the ULL is either like 6-12 ours too fast or just too far north. Weird we went from mid-range models all looking alike with the speed max coming in off the base during the day Tue to a split like this.. Well, maybe not weird, but still. SPC going with a day 6 got everyone excited maybe heh. One interesting thing is the GFS does kick the trough negative briefly on Tue afternoon just way north. Hard not to focus on Monday for now. Shear is marginal initially but becomes somewhat respectable late esp nearer the PA/MD border. Well, discounting the Euro which is marginal throughout given the trough differences. Hate Euro battles.. it's not as good as we all think it is but since it has big wins we always over defer to it. But 12z on the whole was a move toward the other solutions, at least slightly. If it holds I'll probably still try to hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO/WY... ...SUMMARY... AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS WELL AS THE CAROLINAS AND OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY MODESTLY WEAKENS. ...CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES... THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH ONE OR MORE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIKELY OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND DETAILS OF PRECEDING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A SUFFICIENT COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY NEAR THE FRONT TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AS THIS OCCURS...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE VICINITY COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES. AIDED BY DPVA/OROGRAPHIC LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE/INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WY/CO. A FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/TN VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF A GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE. ...OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES... GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION...STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ARE ANTICIPATED AS MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL BE INFLUENTIAL FACTORS...WITH SUBSEQUENT TSTM REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES. THIS INCLUDES A CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY/TN VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR A BIT FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OZARKS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN VICINITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND/OR OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEND SOMEWHAT STRONGER FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE GREAT BASIN ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL ACT TO STEER MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WEST TO WHERE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NY... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED HAIL REPORT ARE LIKELY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OREGON...AS WELL AS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND WWD ACROSS NRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY WIND. TO THE W...A COMPACT AND SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT OREGON...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN AZ AS WELL AS DAYTIME STORMS MOVE WWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...SERN MO EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO WRN NY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE SWWD ACROSS OH/IND/IL. THE MOIST AIR MASS TO THE E WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH SIMILAR 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MIXED-MODE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR WILL BE FROM NRN KY INTO PA. ...CNTRL OREGON... STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ABOVE 600 MB WILL ALSO EXIST AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A RASH OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL OREGON AND PERHAPS INTO SRN WA. THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LITTLE RAIN ARE LIKELY. ...SERN CO...TX PANHANDLES EWD ACROSS KS AND OK... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR A STALLED BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. ...ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HELPING TO CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY. A SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL EXIST...BUT A FEW SHALLOW STORMS MAY FORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 07/13/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Monday looks pretty decent with sup comp parameter on the 00z NAM. Tuesday looks pretty meh. Not only SPC, but LWX are now more concerned about Mon than Tue. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 355 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOUND WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL SETS OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND LWX WRF-ARW SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK. ACCORDING TO THESE MODELS...SOME DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE /BY 06Z/ AND THE RADAR HAS YET TO INDICATE AS SUCH EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR MARTINSBURG. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION...BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK /EXCEPT FOR ACCOUNTING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWER/ AND AMEND IF TRENDS CHANGE. WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...ANY EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE USUAL FOG PRONE AREAS. WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODELS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF A TROUGH WILL ALSO BE APPARENT AND BELIEVE THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. INITIATION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR FIRST NEAR/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CONVECTION THEN MAY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z NAM/03Z SREFS GUIDANCE. WHILE SHEAR MAY INITIALLY BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LWX WRF-ARW ACTUALLY DOESN/T PROJECT A LOT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...INSTEAD FOCUSING MORE ON ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA THAT WOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHILE BELIEVE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME INITIAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EVEN THOUGH IT/S NOT WELL DEPICTED ON THE WRF-ARW...ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD SINK SOUTHEASTWARD DURING BY LATE EVENING. THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT/TIMING OF SUCH CONVECTION AND THUS AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SHEAR MAY BE A BETTER BY THAT TIME THIS CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT THE CWA AND THUS A DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. BIAS CORRECTED SREFS HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR TEMPERATURES RECENTLY...AND USED THIS WITH A LITTLE BCADJMAV FOR MAXIMA/MINIMA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM SECTOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD...LIKELY RESIDING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THERE WILL BE AN EARLY MORNING LULL IN CONVECTION OR IF THERE COULD BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. WHETHER THIS IS THE CASE OR NOT...MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ACTIVE AS SREFS INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR BY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE BOTH THE SEVERE RISK AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT THE START OF TUE...THE CDFNT...WHILE APPROACHING...WL STILL RESIDE NW OF CWFA. THERE WL BE AN EVER STEEPENING TROF AXIS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. SUSPECT THAT THE TRUE CFP WL BE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS ENERGY FM THE FNT WL BE ABSORBED BY THE TROF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. BY MID-LT AFTN...THAT TRANSITION WL BE COMPLETE. SUCH A PROGRESSION WL GNLY KEEP THE MOST UNSTBL AIR ACRS THE TIDEWATER AND DELMARVA. HWVR...PLENTY OF SHEAR WL BE PRESENT...THX TO THE RRQ OF A 120 KT UPR JETMAX. GIVEN KINEMATICS AND FORCED SFC CNVGNC/ASCENT...STILL THINK THAT LKLY POPS THE WAY TO GO. SINCE AMS WL STILL BE VERY MOIST...W/ DEWPTS IN THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70F AND PWAT 1.5-2.0 INCHES...ANY TSRA WL BE HVY RAINERS. WHILE THE BEST COMBO OF INSTBY/LIFT WL BE SE OF AREA...IT/LL STILL BE PSBL TO HV LCL WET MICROBURSTS OR HAIL SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE... THE SVR WORDING WL REMAIN IN HWO. EVOLUTION OF SVR PROBS WL PARTLY BE DETERMINED BY CDFNTL PROGRESS AND MAY BE INHIBITED BY DEBRIS CLDS. MON LOOKS LIKE THE MORE VIOLENT DAY...BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK TUE AS WELL. A SHARP H5 TROF AXIS WL FOLLOW TUE NGT-WED. AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY THE SFC BNDRY WL CLEAR AREA AT FIRST. AM THEREFORE HOLDING ONTO SOME POPS ALONG THE BAY/SRN MD TUE NGT. HWVR...ONCE THE UPR AXIS SWEEPS THRU...ITLL KICK THE FNT TO THE COAST. COOL DRY CNDN AIR WL STREAM INTO CWFA THEREAFTER. THAT/LL SET UP SVRL ATYPICAL JULY DAYS. BY DAYS 6-7 /FRI-SAT/...HIPRES WL MV OFFSHORE...SETTING UP RETURN FLOW AND PERHAPS AN APPROACHING WMFNT. TSRA CHCS RETURN TO THE FCST DUE TO THE INHERENT INSTBY/LIFT. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS AT CHO/MRB...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRATUS SNEAKING INTO MTN/BWI. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY WARRANT VCTS INCLUSION BY 12Z TAF TIME. IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN PENNSYLVANIA SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT EVOLUTION/TIMING IS LOW. LEE TROUGH AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. SCT-NMRS TSRA DURING THE DAY TUE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EVNG FOR THE METROS. FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD W/IN STORMS ALTHO SHUD HV HEALTHY PDS OF VFR AS WELL. WED-THU...HIPRES BLDS. VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT TPLM2 CONTINUES TO GUST AOA 20 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 10Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING BUT THE LULL MAY NOT BE THAT LONG AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE IN SCA RANGE AGAIN. HAVE EXTENDED PREVIOUS SCA INTO THE NIGHT. AM UNCERTAIN WHETHER SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OR NOT...IT/LL BE CLOSE BUT DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND ADVISORY THAT FAR YET. ANOTHER NOTE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. TROF AXIS OVER WATERS TUE MRNG...TO BE JOINED BY CDFNT TUE AFTN-NGT. SINCE THERE WL BE A BNDRY NEARLY OVERHEAD...GRADIENT FLOW WL BE LGT-- SLY BCMG WLY. HWVR...THIS SETUP WL PRODUCE NMRS TSRA...EACH WL CONTAIN A GUSTY WND THREAT AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN. THUS...SMW/S XPCTD. COOLER/DRIER AIR WL SURGE INTO AREA WED AND STAY THRU THU. GDNC NOW STARTING TO PICK UP ON MIXING POTL IN THE MID BAY WED. WL ADD PSBL SCA TO SYN/HWO. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED TO 1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOOT ON THE BAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS MODEST INCREASE AND A FULL MOON IS ALL THATS NEEDED TO REACH MINOR THRESHOLD AT ANNAPOLIS FOR HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS UPCOMING MORNING. HAVE ISSUED CSTL FLOOD ADVY. DEPARTURES OF 1/4 TO 1/3 FT ON THE POTOMAC CAUSING NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME. THE MORNING TIDE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. WE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR SITUATION MON MORNING...W/ PERHAPS SW DC GETTING IN ON THE ACT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...BPP/HTS MARINE...BPP/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 I think we get the same takeaway from the AFD that we've gotten from what everyone in here has said the last few days. Monday is looking like the best day for severe chances. Tuesday is still in play, but it doesn't look as good right now when looking at timing and what needs to come together. The biggest concerns from any svr would be wind first, hail second, and tors in a distant third...not to mention flash flooding. Today could be sneaky for someone. Last nights 00z WRF SPC run showed a decent line coming through the entire area around 22--23z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Of course the 12z GFS is considerably slower with the 500 low now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Of course the 12z GFS is considerably slower with the 500 low now. Yep...was just about to post that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Yep...was just about to post that lol. I was just about to get all patriotic again with Euro 'caving.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 I was just about to get all patriotic again with Euro 'caving.' It still seems like the closed contours at H5 still don't get quite as far south as the early on "really favorable" euro runs. But it might not matter I guess. Looking side by side at the 6z GFS vs the 12z is pretty cool to see how much slower 12z is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 12z GFS gets decent CAPE mainly east of the mountains on Tuesday. If this solution is right we might salvage Tuesday as a severe day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 The BOX morning AFD mentioned how the 00z GFS and GEFS came around to the slower Euro depictions. What about the 500 placement? Any better for the region? A bit--still likely fast for a high end event but would probably be passable as is esp 95 area and east. On a side note not sure why ppl on social are hyperventilating about tomorrow. Should see storms but the shear is still awful borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 A bit--still likely fast for a high end event but would probably be passable as is esp 95 area and east. On a side note not sure why ppl on social are hyperventilating about tomorrow. Should see storms but the shear is still awful borderline. And SPC even mentioned multicells as a predominate mode. Sounds like a "usual" severe day around here with perhaps a little upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Well when SPC mentions multicells... and LWX mentions isolated tornadoes... of course people will go with what LWX says in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Well when SPC mentions multicells... and LWX mentions isolated tornadoes... of course people will go with what LWX says in their AFD Unfortunately I think that in the last 1-3 years with all of the new "armchair wx enthusiasts" a lot of people who don't really understand how to use forecast discussions are reading them and not really processing them properly. A lot of people don't seem to understand that a forecast discussion is not a final forecast. It's a topic for another thread but it also goes along with how the public a lot of times doesn't really understand the slight/mod/high categories from SPC. If I was a layperson I'd think slight meant a very small chance of severe storms. I believe initially the SPC outlooks were not intended to be used verbatim by the public - they were more for digestion by mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Sounds like a classic CYA deal where you mention it just because you don't want to find yourself dismissive only to miss the one TOR in the middle of nowhere tomorrow. I'd mention it too. Low likelihood, but not zero. Well the additional factor is that the AFD is a discussion for other meteorologists that just happens to be public material. 95% of the public will never read the AFD so they would never even see the iso tornado risk being mentioned unless it shows up in a more public oriented forecast. The whole point of that AFD is to discuss all the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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