Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I just really want to see 45-50kt bulk shear overspread a 3k cape warm sector. I'll even not make fun of snow weenies if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Monday should be OK.. we'll get storms. But shear is marginal so prob big rainers/microbursts etc. I guess that's standard for us though. Might be a window between like 21-0z for rotating storms as shear picks up but that's always a stretch around here from range. 30 kts bulk shear should be enough IMO... but we shall see. Agree with the rest of what you are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Tuesday is okay through 18z... 40 kts bulk shear and 1500-2000 SBCAPE at DCA... MLCAPE blows though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 30 kts bulk shear should be enough IMO... but we shall see. Agree with the rest of what you are saying I'd want 40+ 30kts is not too hard to get around here and it's fairly marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 In other news 12z GGEM trends backwards in favor of the old GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 In other news 12z GGEM trends backwards in favor of the old GFS runs And the battle continues. Starting to think we won't have a good handle on this until Sunday afternoon or evening This feels like winter storm waffling in the middle of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I just really want to see 45-50kt bulk shear overspread a 3k cape warm sector. I'll even not make fun of snow weenies if that happens. Yeah thats pretty rare in this area. Our severe events are cold front driven, with the flow aloft parallel to the front. Instability ahead, and any significant shear lagging behind. This looks like a typical linear mode event with bowing segments and a straight line wind threat. And some prolific rainers with the high PW and possible training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Fixed. I can't take model battles in the middle of July lol This should be a decent severe event. Probably favoring Monday. Given its mid July, kinda doubt the trough is going to dig too far south and go negative tilt. Pretty impressive ridge pumping in W. Canada though, so who knows. I would be happy with some frequent lightning and torrential downpours with flash floods lol. Wind damage is cool and all, but not IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 What's the good free Canadian site? WxBell isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 This is a cool thread. It's like a junior version of the winter model watching threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 This is a cool thread. It's like a junior version of the winter model watching threads. Except most people actually know what they're talking about, unlike snow threat threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Except most people actually know what they're talking about, unlike snow threat threads. Ok now you're just getting picky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Except most people actually know what they're talking about, unlike snow threat threads. I think the difference is most people are more objective and less IMBY focused with severe weather than snow threats. The weenie factor isn't there so much with severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Euro looks great for Monday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 WxBell is all borked.. Euro not coming in either. Euro does look faster than it was but still solid. Of course it was really slow last night.. my current maps aren't hi res but that's how it appears at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 WxBell is all borked.. Euro not coming in either. Euro does look faster than it was but still solid. Of course it was really slow last night.. my current maps aren't hi res but that's how it appears at least. Solid as in good severe storm potential? I just want to make sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Solid as in good severe storm potential? Yeah for this area. In Oklahoma in May it would be one of the more calm days. 850mb winds look stronger over PA/NY/SNE on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Solid as in good severe storm potential? I just want to make sure No, like a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 No, like a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 No, like a brick. Just trying to learn a lil besides C and P the warnings on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 WxBell is all borked.. Euro not coming in either. Euro does look faster than it was but still solid. Of course it was really slow last night.. my current maps aren't hi res but that's how it appears at least. Ryan N. Maue @RyanMaue 1m Server crashed while I was walking to Pensacola beach. Rebooted just as Blue Angels warped across the beach. Models 12z ECMWF gets priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 18z NAM out to 36hrs on NCEP. Closed contour where there wasn't one at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 18z NAM is much, much slower. Front doesn't clear the coast yet through the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 18z NAM is much, much slower. Front doesn't clear the coast yet through the end of its run. Pretty disjointed though in the mid-levels.. winds are meh most of the late day Tue. On balance I think we're probably almost safe with not having the front pass early on Tue.. the rest is still pretty questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 What does it look like? Just non-tornadic storms or are we looking at tornadoes too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 What does it look like? Just non-tornadic storms or are we looking at tornadoes too? We'll get back to you on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 18z 4km NAM looks intriguing for tomorrow evening/night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS is pretty different again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Might want to add July 13th to the thread as well... LWX hints as much in their HWO and the 18z 4km NAM was intriguing of itself for tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 So far on 00z NAM, closed 552DM h5 low in SW Ontario at hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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