yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 NAM looks like it's closer to the Euro than the GFS.. cold front back in OH at 12z on Tue with a shortwave rounding the low.. probably a quality setup for the day. It looks mighty interesting late Monday too around DC. 00z NAM sounding for IAD at 00z TUES.... decent hodo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Euro shows some pretty big rounds of severe potential til wed... Gfs is done by Monday evening... Quite a disconnect on amplitude and timing for being inside 100 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Monday from SPC... SLGT risk area =15% due to complexities of the forecast ..SYNOPSIS A TROUGH OF SUBSTANTIAL AMPLITUDE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M PER 12H FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM MN/WI TO MI/OH/INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...PER LATEST ECMWF. THE FORECAST IS MADE MORE COMPLEX GIVEN A MORE DIFFUSE FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PRECEDE THE STRONGER COLD FRONT...AND THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG/NEAR BOTH BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW. ELSEWHERE...AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ..MID MS VALLEY TO NJ/PA/NY AND NRN DELMARVA AREAS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST COMPLEXITIES ONLY A BROAD ZONE OF RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES CAN BE DEPICTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. THE LEADING FRONT WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND LIKELY ONGOING STORMS...THAT SHOULD SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST INTO A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND FORCING AS DEPICTED IN BOTH NAM AND PARALLEL NAM...AS WELL AS GFS AND ECMWF...WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TO SEVERAL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Euro shows some pretty big rounds of severe potential til wed... Gfs is done by Monday evening... Quite a disconnect on amplitude and timing for being inside 100 hours.... It's typical for the GFS to be too progressive like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 VALID 151200Z - 201200Z ..DISCUSSION GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE A TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ..DAY 4 UNUSUALLY LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE GFS INDICATING 1) FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND 2) FASTER DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW LOCATION IN CENTRAL QUEBEC BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR/ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH MIDDLE OF DAY 4. MEANWHILE...DETERMINISTIC UKMET IS A COMPROMISE AND SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 00 UTC 16 JULY/TUESDAY EVENING. A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUING AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST ON DAY 4/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT SUCH A RELATIVELY SHORT FORECAST RANGE...THE PRUDENT APPROACH IS TO FORECAST PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 One thing is very obvious. All of you are very very excited at the prospect of tornadoes with this weather system next week. I hope you get them. I hope it is far worse than the 1974 Superoutbreak. That way you will all be happy. Hell, I'll enjoy the tornadoes with you all, I'll even cheer EF4 tornadoes on. But all I want to know is this: How cool with this cold airmass be next week? Are we talking about highs only around 80 degrees? 75 degrees? 70 degrees? The way I heard people talking about "super cold weather next week" it made me think of high temperatures in the 50s and lows around freezing. I dont want hype. I HATE HYPE. I just want to know how cool will it be next week. I bet we end up with highs around 87 degrees all week with dewpoints around 70 degrees. I can't stand hype. I am sick to death of hype about cold weather in July because I know that is an impossibility. It will NOT be cold next week in northern Virginia. It will be 90 degrees with dewpoints around 70, partly cloudy with a light south wind and a high pressure over the west Atlantic. Cold weather in northern Virginia in mid July is an utter impossibility. It will not happen next week. It will be warm and humid with a chance of storms each day as is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I have no idea how you can all root for tornadoes. There are just so many densely populated areas to root for a strong tornado. That said, I guess the NIMBY rule applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Are we expecting conditions favorable for Tornados, or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Not sure about the tor, but Jeb, the "cold" is just hype. It's just below normal temps for a couple days, seriously, like two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm not that optimistic about Tuesday right now, GFS/GEFS and SREF's really don't show much on Tuesday. The difference between the GFS/NAM suite and CMC/ECMWF is clear. We just need to see what comes out on top. Monday looks like the best day but timing might be off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm not that optimistic about Tuesday right now, GFS/GEFS and SREF's really don't show much on Tuesday. The difference between the GFS/NAM suite and CMC/ECMWF is clear. We just need to see what comes out on top. Monday looks like the best day but timing might be off Did something change on the NAM? As of last night it was looking impressive. Also, the SREF is at it's longer ranges right now and I'm not sure I'd put too much stock into it. At this point I'd be most concerned about the GFS holding onto it's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Did something change on the NAM? As of last night it was looking impressive. Also, the SREF is at it's longer ranges right now and I'm not sure I'd put too much stock into it. At this point I'd be most concerned about the GFS holding onto it's solution.12z NAM definitely trended toward the GFS for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Somehow the euro was a touch slower than prior last night. Silly ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Somehow the euro was a touch slower than prior last night. Silly ULL. Model Battles sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS looks pretty similar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS looks a little bit more favorable now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS looks a little bit more favorable now Trenddddd maybe lol - we'll see if it holds on subsequent runs and if the Euro holds it's slower solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Huge step toward Euro on 12z GFS. Tuesday is warm and humid and the Front doesn't really push through until midnight or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Huge step toward Euro on 12z GFS. Tuesday is warm and humid and the Front doesn't really push through until midnight or so Yeah by Tuesday at H5 the different to 6z GFS is pretty large. Nice round closed low just NE of MI on the 12z as opposed to a messy 552 contour a good bit NE of that on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 I wonder if we'll get two decent days of severe or one bust and one significant day...though I guess we could bust both days as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Still not a great run but it seems it might be catching on. Positive small steps at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I wonder if we'll get two decent days of severe or one bust and one significant day...though I guess we could bust both days as well Right now I am focusing more on Monday.... if we get something Tuesday, I will consider it a bonus IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Still not a great run but it seems it might be catching on. Positive small steps at least. I noticed on the Euro run the 500 low goes roughly through the center of MI - is that what we are looking for on the GFS? GFS presently takes it not very deeply into MI on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I think this sums up the difference between the EURO and the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I noticed on the Euro run the 500 low goes roughly through the center of MI - is that what we are looking for on the GFS? GFS presently takes it not very deeply into MI on this run. Yeah, basically.. the GFS isn't digging as much initially and then weakens/lifts out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The MON 21z sounding for KIAD from the 12z GFS is decent... but very high PWATs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 If it is anyway like the past Tue-Thurs timeframe I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 The MON 21z sounding for KIAD from the 12z GFS is decent... but very high PWATs Well I guess if nothing else we can look forward to hearing about the usual idiots driving their car into rushing water and needing water rescues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Well I guess if nothing else we can look forward to hearing about the usual idiots driving their car into rushing water and needing water rescues. Probably... PWATs Monday afternoon near 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The MON 21z sounding for KIAD from the 12z GFS is decent... but very high PWATs Monday should be OK.. we'll get storms. But shear is marginal so prob big rainers/microbursts etc. I guess that's standard for us though. Might be a window between like 21-0z for rotating storms as shear picks up but that's always a stretch around here from range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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