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July 13-15 storm risk


Kmlwx

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   145 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT
     DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
     DELAWARE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
     NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
     NEW JERSEY
     SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
     SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
     EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
     900 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   BRIDGEPORT CONNECTICUT TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH HILL
   VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING WITHIN A MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE NYC AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NC.
   RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE
   RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24030.

 

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Marine now issued.

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD...
  TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT 8
  NM SOUTHWEST OF BRENT POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

* THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HIGH WAVES AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

&&
 

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Still no warnings except for that special marine warning that just went out. Not seeing any impressive areas of rotation at this point either. Radar really lighting up though!

No wedges.. bust. 

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The trouble with all this house construction in Arlington VA:

 

1..  I can't tell if a rumble means thunder or a megatruck carrying mounds of ex-hillside from point A to point B.

 

2. I won't know if a landslip from point B down over point A onto the roadway is happening unless it spills all the way onto I-395.

 

(the overall slope was even steeper than The Hill Of Doom (mymark), so they wouldn't let the housebuilders put a street through.)

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