Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Would be nice if we could have EML on a day like today. Need moar cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Going to have a 2 minute meso to watch thingy. Kind of surprised that there is no MD yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Kind of surprised that there is no MD yet They usually wait until storms are at least in beginning stages of forming unless it's absolutely certain they will form. We should see one shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Kind of surprised that there is no MD yet not going up too fast.. top wise at least. would imagine it's coming any minute tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here comes your WW: http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/acus11.1407151724.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY...NJ...DE...FAR SE PA...MD...ERNVA...NE NCCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 151723Z - 151900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NE NCEXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORKCITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BETHE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONWITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE SRNAND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROMSRN PA SWD INTO VA AND NRN NC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE INTHE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THEDEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA ISSUGGESTING THAT TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THE FIRSTIS LOCATED IN SRN NJ WITH THE SECOND OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC WHEREMLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WSR-88D VWPS FROM WASHINGTON DCNNEWD ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR NEWARK NJ SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDPROFILES WITH 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 5 KM LAYER. THIS IS CREATINGMODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BEFAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ANYSUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE ANDISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE AWIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MORESUBSTANTIAL IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LARGER LINE SEGMENTS WITH ACOLD POOL ORGANIZING...BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun is back out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Seems like the "line" wants to organize over the metro. It will probably really crank once it's just east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watching that storm south of Warrenton carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watching that storm south of Warrenton carefully. It's got 25 minutes to make my tor warn guess.. go storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Must have hit convective temp. Showers everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Mix of sun and clouds. 91/78 It is baking outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 It's got 25 minutes to make my tor warn guess.. go storm! Echo tops increasing on it. Seems like the most promising one for now to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That Chantilly storm already gusted out...wow. Decent downpours with these lead cells though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The cell near Crofton AACo. is my storm, notice the winds at Annapolis are 120°@9kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watch coming out now until 1:00 UTC Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 977 WWUS30 KWNS 151741 SAW3 SPC AWW 151741 WW 423 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NC NJ NY PA VA WV CW 151745Z - 160100Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NW BDR/BRIDGEPORT CT/ - 25WSW AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /49WSW BDL - 44NNE RDU/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. LAT...LON 41567223 36547712 36547981 41567512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0423.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Organizing nicely it seems. Immediate metro areas looking good at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hearing a good bit of thunder rolling out of the cell to my sw. No rockville split for round 1 it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Might be some flooding issues if this keeps up in western Fairfax Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thunder and Rain...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Flash Flood Watch posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Might be some flooding issues if this keeps up in western Fairfax Co. CWOP EW4183 already had 1.03" as of 1:52p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Whoa...is that a hailcore on the Fairfax/MoCo storm? Purples showing up in a big patch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Pretty nice ZDR column it looks like on that storm I just referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Storm north of Bowie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Whoa...is that a hailcore on the Fairfax/MoCo storm? Purples showing up in a big patch. Heavy rain, ZDR at sfc is +5-7, not hail. Big rain drops, and lots of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Heavy rain, ZDR at sfc is +5-7, not hail. Big rain drops, and lots of them. Very impressive. That storm has 60-70 VILs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Getting outflowed. Down to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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