yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 1500 SPC meso 2000 SBCAPE along BR... 2500 SBCAPE along I-95... 3000 Baltimore and just NE of DCA... 3500 on Eastern Shore 1500 MLCAPE along I-95 LCL heights are okay... better to the NE of LWX 40-55 kts effective bulk shear 40-50 kts 0-6 shear -2 to -4 left moving supercell composite 1.7 to 1.9 PWATs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 1500 SPC meso 2000 SBCAPE along BR... 2500 SBCAPE along I-95... 3000 Baltimore and just NE of DCA... 3500 on Eastern Shore 1500 MLCAPE along I-95 LCL heights are okay... better to the NE of LWX 40-55 kts effective bulk shear 40-50 kts 0-6 shear -2 to -4 left moving supercell composite 1.7 to 1.9 PWATs There's the Yoda we all know and, tolerate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 What is hatching? In addition to the probabilities for separate types of severe weather occurring, areas are shown where there is a 10% or greater chance of significant severe weather. Significant severe weather is defined as F2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 65 knots, or large hail 2" or greater in diameter. If the forecaster believes that there is less than a 10% chance of significant severe weather occurring in the outlook area, then the hatched area will not appear on the graphics. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I could see an upgrade to a moderate risk given that SBCAPE is now in exess of 2000 J/KG over a large region and shear profiles remain impressive. We've had moderate risks before in less impressive setups. I think SPC was a little bit worried that the higher instability wouldn't be realized. That seems to have sorted itself out. The most likely area to be upgraded would be from BWI to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Generally before a categorical upgrade from slight to moderate you'd see an MCD come out indicating that is what is about to happen. Considering next outlook is at 1630z (soonish) I'd go with still slight. But hatching is still a possibility maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Generally before a categorical upgrade from slight to moderate you'd see an MCD come out indicating that is what is about to happen. Considering next outlook is at 1630z (soonish) I'd go with still slight. But hatching is still a possibility maybe. I'm not saying that they are going to upgrade but one could certainly understand why they might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 $20 says 30% hatched wind on the new update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Generally before a categorical upgrade from slight to moderate you'd see an MCD come out indicating that is what is about to happen. Considering next outlook is at 1630z (soonish) I'd go with still slight. But hatching is still a possibility maybe. That's typically what I thought too, but do you remember if that was the case for the last Moderate a few weeks ago? I don't remember seeing a MCD before the upgrade, so I don't know if they always do that, but definitely correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 That's typically what I thought too, but do you remember if that was the case for the last Moderate a few weeks ago? I don't remember seeing a MCD before the upgrade, so I don't know if they always do that, but definitely correct me if I'm wrong. It might be when there is imminent storms that are the reason for the moderate. I just know that probably 90%+ of times we've been upgraded in this region on a 1630z outlook there's been an MCD - but that might not be a hard rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wedges or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 $20 says 30% hatched wind on the new update You have an unfair advantage - inside sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 $20 says 30% hatched wind on the new update I thought you thought LWX was too bullish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wedges or bust. http://www.kfc.com/food/sides/wedges.asp 'tis lunchtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 http://www.kfc.com/food/sides/wedges.asp 'tis lunchtime Congratulations - you just made this subforum hungry for lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Pics showing up on the twitter do indicate some impressive impact from those winds image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Effective bulk shear - nice! Is it good or bad that I'm in the bullseye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It might be when there is imminent storms that are the reason for the moderate. I just know that probably 90%+ of times we've been upgraded in this region on a 1630z outlook there's been an MCD - but that might not be a hard rule. Okay yeah that definitely makes sense, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I thought you thought LWX was too bullish? I still do...too much cloud cover upstream. EDIT: IMO, Delmarva is the place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thick cloud cover now in Reston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Apparently, the cold front just sped through IAD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Clouds prob don't matter all that much at this pt. 2000 sfc CAPE is more than sufficient. I'd be kinda surprised if they went mod tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 need more sun obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I would think flash flooding would be possible with PW's where they are? It feels like the Nicaraguan rain forest out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 need more sun obs Sunny here Wedges imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 need more sun obs Behind clouds. Stabilized at 85/75 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun in and out here 87 dew 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 87/77 at my PWS. Ick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I would think flash flooding would be possible with PW's where they are? It feels like the Nicaraguan rain forest out there From LWX AFD: IN TERMS OF RAFL POTL...PWAT CLOSE TO 2 INCHES TDA...BUT INDIV CELLSSHUD BE PROGRESSIVE. RAFL FM PAST CPL DAYS HASNT MADE A BIG IMPACT ON ANTECEDENT CONDS OUTSIDE OF METRO BALT. THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST MSTR TDA SHUD BE JUST E OF I-95...WHERE FFG STILL QUITE HIGH. ISSUES MAY ARISE IF CELLS START TRAINING...OR IF AXIS FURTHER W THAN ANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sunny here Wedges imminent I read this as wedgies. So juvenile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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