IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Most of the area around Tabernacle on Rte 206 is all woods, in the middle of the Pinelands. It's only 20 minutes from my house, lol. That's part of the reason I was skeptical in the PHL thread. While it's mostly woods it is mostly flat and I'm sure we would both agree that most of southwest NJ is farmland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not sure if you're familiar with the terrain of NJ but that part of the state is fairly flat with mostly farms. And that cell was fairly discrete when the warning was issued before it got swallowd up by the main part of the line. Tracked it down.. took some cropping and playing around. http://tornadoes.webonline-videos.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Tornado-Chase-Adairsville-13013-USA.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Tracked it down.. took some cropping and playing around. http://tornadoes.webonline-videos.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Tornado-Chase-Adairsville-13013-USA.jpg pwned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 While it's mostly woods it is mostly flat and I'm sure we would both agree that most of southwest NJ is farmland.Oh god yea, SW of me into Salem and Cumberland Co. Is a ton of farmland, just not up there. Flat, but wooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks nasty... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014071512/nam4km_ref_neus_3.png Can you back it up 2 hrs? Like 19z and 20z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here was the velocity, you can see some small couplets. Anyway someone posted that NWS survery has confirmed a tornado did touch down so whether that photo is legit or not I guess is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here was the velocity, you can see some small couplets. Anyway someone posted that NWS survery has confirmed a tornado did touch down so whether that photo is legit or not I guess is irrelevant. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (NO TORNADO) IN BURLINGTON COUNTY YESTERDAY... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TRACKED ACROSS BURLINGTON COUNTY NEW JERSEY FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO SOUTHAMPTON BETWEEN 8:15 AND 8:30 PM LAST NIGHT JULY 14TH. SCATTERED FALLEN TREES AND BRANCHES, POWER LINES, AND A DISPLACED IRRIGATION PIPE WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHAMPTON AREA. THIS DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS. EYEWITNESS REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. THE NWS THANKS BURLINGTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WHO HELPED WITH TODAY/S DAMAGE SURVEY AND THE EYEWITNESSES WH0 TALKED WITH US ALONG THE WAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Can you back it up 2 hrs? Like 19z and 20z? Come on Yoda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Come on Yoda... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Come on Yoda... I am out of the office on my phone and I don't have that link at all or the main link to get that radar on my phone... that's why I asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (NO TORNADO) IN BURLINGTON COUNTY YESTERDAY... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TRACKED ACROSS BURLINGTON COUNTY NEW JERSEY FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO SOUTHAMPTON BETWEEN 8:15 AND 8:30 PM LAST NIGHT JULY 14TH. SCATTERED FALLEN TREES AND BRANCHES, POWER LINES, AND A DISPLACED IRRIGATION PIPE WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHAMPTON AREA. THIS DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS. EYEWITNESS REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. THE NWS THANKS BURLINGTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WHO HELPED WITH TODAY/S DAMAGE SURVEY AND THE EYEWITNESSES WH0 TALKED WITH US ALONG THE WAY. guess that's what I get for listening to some posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I am out of the office on my phone and I don't have that link at all or the main link to get that radar on my phone... that's why I asked If you change the last number you get other hours. But it looks like it's only every 3 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Can you back it up 2 hrs? Like 19z and 20z? Yeah, sorry lol. Here's the loop- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014071512/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here was the velocity, you can see some small couplets. Anyway someone posted that NWS survery has confirmed a tornado did touch down so whether that photo is legit or not I guess is irrelevant. Nah man, it was confirmed one did not touch down. 60-70 mph straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks like the storms "skip" the area a bit on the HRRR model, but I assume it is a direct hit though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (NO TORNADO) IN BURLINGTON COUNTY YESTERDAY... Pics showing up on the twitter do indicate some impressive impact from those winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 so we're covering the Jersey Shore weather in here today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Pics showing up on the twitter do indicate some impressive impact from those winds image.jpg One of the eyewitnessess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Nah man, it was confirmed one did not touch down. 60-70 mph straight line winds. Yup as noted I made the mistake of trusting some information that turned out to be false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 LWX Seems bullish...still would like to see more breaks in the clouds along the I-81 corridor. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE SRN PLAINS WILLGRADUALLY TREK ACROSS THE REGION IN THE COMING HRS. THE BOUNDARYIS CURRENTLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE CNTRL APLCNS...ASDAYTIME HEATING BUILDS INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD IT. WITH LESSER SHEARAVAILABLE FOR YESTERDAY'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...A NUMBER OF CELLSWERE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. THOUGH A LARGELYUNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW W/ THE CURRENT OVERHEAD ENVIRONMENT...THESHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STRONGER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.BOUNDARY LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL LIKELYINCREASE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE HEADING INTO THE MID-AFTN HRS.INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND E OF I-95 W/ THEHIGHER HEATING/MOISTURE VALUES AND LONGER RESIDENCE TIME UNDERCLEAR/M CLR SKIES. SFC CAPES ARE QUITE LARGE W/ MODIFIED SOUNDINGVALUES...BUT CUEING OFF YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY THAT HAD MORE OF AMOIST-ADIABATIC CHARACTERISTIC TO UPDRAFT INITIATION...WE'LL GO W/MORE OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSIS OF A GENERAL 1-1.5K MU CAPE AND GOODABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STEERING FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun has been out at times, still humid as fook 79.2/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Decent CAPE out there. Mesoanalysis has a pocket of 2500 surface based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Effective bulk shear - nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 84/73 at DCA. Some (slight) clearing to the west? This is from 1030am, latest update I can get from here ---http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/lwx/vis-l.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 hehe - a poster over the NYC subforum thinks SPC might go hatched wind. Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 hehe - a poster over the NYC subforum thinks SPC might go hatched wind. Doubtful If widespread convection taps the shear could be pretty sizable damage reports. Thought they might hatch originally days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 If widespread convection taps the shear could be pretty sizable damage reports. Thought they might hatch originally days ago. Maybe I guess. I still think we could get sizeable damage without the hatching. SPC has been pretty shy since removing that D6 risk. Maybe a marginal hatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 hehe - a poster over the NYC subforum thinks SPC might go hatched wind. Doubtful Well with what PHL put out in their SWS... you would think its possible they would go hatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well with what PHL put out in their SWS... you would think its possible they would go hatch I guess we will see at 1630z. I'm thinking along the lines of a very strongly worded 30% wind. ..but not hatching. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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