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July 13-15 storm risk


Kmlwx

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Having a closed ull dropping in like this in July can't be common. I don't remember any in recent memory but I don't track severe so I could be missing plenty of things. Even in my simpleton knowledge I'm kinda excited about the setup. I love ul dynamics. They bring surprises more often than not. Somewhere along the ec could see some unusually strong tornados if things time right.

Back to lurking

 

I didn't find one in July but didn't look that hard. That said, July can have some big events around here with similar setups of a strong 500mb trough pushing thru the lakes etc.  July is also technically our peak severe storm month locally.. tho it's arguably basically the same as June and we're getting out of peak now. 

 

Latest models don't appear quite as intense with bulk shear but it's probably within a margin of error. If the low ends up shifting north that lowers our risk a bit probably but may increase it to the northeast. 

 

Definitely can't sleep on a pattern like still shown.  From this range it's impossible to say much with certainty but it's the type of setup that can create some havoc.

 

I'd probably still favor Tuesday locally.. last night's Euro pumped the CAPE back up for Tue. GFS has shifted a bit north with the low which is not as ideal, but I'll hug the Euro for now lol. 

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At this far of a lead I'm going to toss out a guess just for fun -

I'll go with a higher end slight risk both Monday and Tuesday but not moderate (maybe there will be one in other areas).

Locally:

15/15/0-2 Monday (wind,hail,tor)

30(hatched?)/15/5 Tuesday

Tues could be a mod somewhere maybe around here but hard to say at this pt.

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I didn't find one in July but didn't look that hard. That said, July can have some big events around here with similar setups of a strong 500mb trough pushing thru the lakes etc. July is also technically our peak severe storm month locally.. tho it's arguably basically the same as June and we're getting out of peak now.

Latest models don't appear quite as intense with bulk shear but it's probably within a margin of error. If the low ends up shifting north that lowers our risk a bit probably but may increase it to the northeast.

Definitely can't sleep on a pattern like still shown. From this range it's impossible to say much with certainty but it's the type of setup that can create some havoc.

I'd probably still favor Tuesday locally.. last night's Euro pumped the CAPE back up for Tue. GFS has shifted a bit north with the low which is not as ideal, but I'll hug the Euro for now lol.

for some reason wxbell doesn't load previous ensemble runs so I can't directly compare but I agree about margin of error with overall placement. it's pretty amplified on the means. Even if we don't get a near perfect setup, it's going to be an energetic day or 2 in these parts. Pretty strong fropa as well so that could be fun for wind if there's organized convection along it unless there's a surface/ml lag. Probably will be to some extent no matter what.

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Locally:

15/15/0-2 Monday (wind,hail,tor)

30(hatched?)/15/5 Tuesday

Tues could be a mod somewhere maybe around here but hard to say at this pt.

Pretty bullish for this range. With how many CAPEdays we wasted with no shear this year I'll take some good shear and hash out CAPE later on

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for some reason wxbell doesn't load previous ensemble runs so I can't directly compare but I agree about margin of error with overall placement. it's pretty amplified on the means. Even if we don't get a near perfect setup, it's going to be an energetic day or 2 in these parts. Pretty strong fropa as well so that could be fun for wind if there's organized convection along it unless there's a surface/ml lag. Probably will be to some extent no matter what.

You know I love me some fat 500mb systems. ;)

Timing is def my main concern tho I think we will get storms regardless.

Models wouldn't usually show much tor potential at this range still but if you get the 500 low in the right spot and time a shortwave well it's def a risk in these setups and could be a big one intermixed. Low level winds are a bit anemic maybe but pop a lee low and that changes things.

On balance this is turning into a decent storm season I think so there's that atmospheric memory in our favor as well. ;)

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Imma ride the Euro all the way...unless that follows suit of course. How does GFS look for Monday?

And re: the lee low aspect - is that a decent potential occurrance in this setup?

Monday looks OK still.. could work. I think overall it's faster and it weakens/lifts the 500mb low quicker. The front passes during the midday.. wonky run compared to others at least.

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Yeah, that looks like a really healthy run of the Euro. I wonder if SPC tomorrow doesn't even put us in a slight for Monday at D3 but adds back in a D4 threat for Tuesday. Severe weather is one heck of a roller coaster ride to follow. 

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LWX afternoon AFD has a good write-up for Tuesday

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED. AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE WE WILL HAVE
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION VIA OTHER
MEANS...SUCH AS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND SEA BREEZES...IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 50 KTS SHOULD ENSURE CONVECTION REMAINS ORGANIZED AS
WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS HAS LED SPC HAS PUT
MUCH OF OUR AREA IN THE DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
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