Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Having a closed ull dropping in like this in July can't be common. I don't remember any in recent memory but I don't track severe so I could be missing plenty of things. Even in my simpleton knowledge I'm kinda excited about the setup. I love ul dynamics. They bring surprises more often than not. Somewhere along the ec could see some unusually strong tornados if things time right. Back to lurking I didn't find one in July but didn't look that hard. That said, July can have some big events around here with similar setups of a strong 500mb trough pushing thru the lakes etc. July is also technically our peak severe storm month locally.. tho it's arguably basically the same as June and we're getting out of peak now. Latest models don't appear quite as intense with bulk shear but it's probably within a margin of error. If the low ends up shifting north that lowers our risk a bit probably but may increase it to the northeast. Definitely can't sleep on a pattern like still shown. From this range it's impossible to say much with certainty but it's the type of setup that can create some havoc. I'd probably still favor Tuesday locally.. last night's Euro pumped the CAPE back up for Tue. GFS has shifted a bit north with the low which is not as ideal, but I'll hug the Euro for now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 At this far of a lead I'm going to toss out a guess just for fun - I'll go with a higher end slight risk both Monday and Tuesday but not moderate (maybe there will be one in other areas). Locally:15/15/0-2 Monday (wind,hail,tor) 30(hatched?)/15/5 Tuesday Tues could be a mod somewhere maybe around here but hard to say at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I didn't find one in July but didn't look that hard. That said, July can have some big events around here with similar setups of a strong 500mb trough pushing thru the lakes etc. July is also technically our peak severe storm month locally.. tho it's arguably basically the same as June and we're getting out of peak now. Latest models don't appear quite as intense with bulk shear but it's probably within a margin of error. If the low ends up shifting north that lowers our risk a bit probably but may increase it to the northeast. Definitely can't sleep on a pattern like still shown. From this range it's impossible to say much with certainty but it's the type of setup that can create some havoc. I'd probably still favor Tuesday locally.. last night's Euro pumped the CAPE back up for Tue. GFS has shifted a bit north with the low which is not as ideal, but I'll hug the Euro for now lol. for some reason wxbell doesn't load previous ensemble runs so I can't directly compare but I agree about margin of error with overall placement. it's pretty amplified on the means. Even if we don't get a near perfect setup, it's going to be an energetic day or 2 in these parts. Pretty strong fropa as well so that could be fun for wind if there's organized convection along it unless there's a surface/ml lag. Probably will be to some extent no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Locally: 15/15/0-2 Monday (wind,hail,tor) 30(hatched?)/15/5 Tuesday Tues could be a mod somewhere maybe around here but hard to say at this pt. Pretty bullish for this range. With how many CAPEdays we wasted with no shear this year I'll take some good shear and hash out CAPE later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Thanks, Disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 for some reason wxbell doesn't load previous ensemble runs so I can't directly compare but I agree about margin of error with overall placement. it's pretty amplified on the means. Even if we don't get a near perfect setup, it's going to be an energetic day or 2 in these parts. Pretty strong fropa as well so that could be fun for wind if there's organized convection along it unless there's a surface/ml lag. Probably will be to some extent no matter what.You know I love me some fat 500mb systems. Timing is def my main concern tho I think we will get storms regardless. Models wouldn't usually show much tor potential at this range still but if you get the 500 low in the right spot and time a shortwave well it's def a risk in these setups and could be a big one intermixed. Low level winds are a bit anemic maybe but pop a lee low and that changes things. On balance this is turning into a decent storm season I think so there's that atmospheric memory in our favor as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 lol the GFS just crapped all over Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 lol the GFS just crapped all over Tuesday. Imma ride the Euro all the way...unless that follows suit of course. How does GFS look for Monday? And re: the lee low aspect - is that a decent potential occurrance in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Imma ride the Euro all the way...unless that follows suit of course. How does GFS look for Monday? And re: the lee low aspect - is that a decent potential occurrance in this setup? Monday looks OK still.. could work. I think overall it's faster and it weakens/lifts the 500mb low quicker. The front passes during the midday.. wonky run compared to others at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Monday looks OK still.. could work. I think overall it's faster and it weakens/lifts the 500mb low quicker. The front passes during the midday.. wonky run compared to others at least. The 12z GGEM is much slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Monday looks OK still.. could work. I think overall it's faster and it weakens/lifts the 500mb low quicker. The front passes during the midday.. wonky run compared to others at least. Mid-70s dews and pwats >2 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Overhype kiss of death from SPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Overhype kiss of death from SPC: that outlook is a day old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Someone I know is flying from California to DC on Tuesday, landing late afternoon. I wouldn't want to fly thru that front and land here that day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Most important Euro run of July inbound. Where is Ji??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 So far the Euro has more of a NW to SE tilt with the vortex so the front is a tad east of it's 00z positon as of 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The base of the trough is definitly flatter this run so far. Sunday looks moist north of the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The Euro is not nearly as wet now for Monday unless you're well south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 here's what i wrote.. mostly last night then an hour of refurb this morning. i dunno what to think at present. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/11/severe-thunderstorm-event-early-next-week-history-and-current-outlooks-say-maybe/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Trough looks pretty blah so far...not looking like a big deal anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Trough looks pretty blah so far...not looking like a big deal anymore. thru 12z tue euro looks pretty good for tue to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 thru 12z tue euro looks pretty good for tue to me Remember - he is always "meh" on storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 thru 12z tue euro looks pretty good for tue to me Tuesday still looks good on the Euro. It's only the GFS that crapped the bed. The trough was definitly ever so slightly more progressive this run so it's something to watch with 4 days still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Also excellent writeup Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Remember - he is always "meh" on storm chances I'd take my chances lol. Probably one of the better Euro runs for Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Yeah, that looks like a really healthy run of the Euro. I wonder if SPC tomorrow doesn't even put us in a slight for Monday at D3 but adds back in a D4 threat for Tuesday. Severe weather is one heck of a roller coaster ride to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Remember - he is always "meh" on storm chances I still have the faux MOD risk from last June fresh in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 I still have the faux MOD risk from last June fresh in my memory. Weren't there a few tornado reports around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 LWX afternoon AFD has a good write-up for Tuesday .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED. ANANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FOR THIS TIME OFYEAR...WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THEBEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE WE WILL HAVEALL OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. THEMID-ATLANTIC WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANUPPER LEVEL JET MAX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TOENHANCED DESTABILIZATION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROMTHE WEST...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM FORORGANIZED CONVECTION...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION VIA OTHERMEANS...SUCH AS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...REMNANT OUTFLOWBOUNDARIES...AND SEA BREEZES...IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. 0-6 KM SHEARVALUES NEAR 50 KTS SHOULD ENSURE CONVECTION REMAINS ORGANIZED ASWELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS HAS LED SPC HAS PUTMUCH OF OUR AREA IN THE DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Pretty bullish for them. They seem to have ignored the 12z GFS.. probably wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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