Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looking back, today was a decent day. I know lightning doesn't count as svr, but there seemed to be a good amount of cg throughout the region. There were also a few wind/damage reports in the District and elsewhere. Can't really complain. Tomorrow could be another interesting day. Maybe. You never know around these parts Well, it looks better than it has at least. I can't give up on tomorrow till it fails at this point lol. Problems with getting invested 6 days out. Too much convection too early and mostly unidirectional shear could be issues in keeping instability long enough and not just training into flooders. But man I love big ULLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well, it looks better than it has at least. I can't give up on tomorrow till it fails at this point lol. Problems with getting invested 6 days out. Too much convection too early and mostly unidirectional shear could be issues in keeping instability long enough and not just training into flooders. But man I love big ULLs. I just looked. It looks like it slowed down a bit again! What was interesting to me is the degree of difference from the 0 hr panel on the 00z to the 6 hr panel on the 18z - some differences all over the map. I'm kind of excited for tomorrow...now if only we can keep crapvection out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I just looked. It looks like it slowed down a bit again! What was interesting to me is the degree of difference from the 0 hr panel on the 00z to the 6 hr panel on the 18z - some differences all over the map. I'm kind of excited for tomorrow...now if only we can keep crapvection out of the way. Still looks like an earliesh show but as is not super early.. like 11a or something. RAP .. I know .. lol.. is popping a sfc low in C VA which helps back the winds at the sfc. I'll feel like a goober when SPC outlook sucks I guess but I still think we'll see a 5% tor somewhere in the region. Hard not to favor east.. I still like SE VA maybe the best for that but the bulk shear is iffier down there. So maybe just east of us? I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Maybe I'll go east tomorrow and actually travel to storms. I want to see a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I mostly want a win for pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 0z NAM4km pretty much initiates storms a hair west of the metro area and then blows stuff up overhead or just east. FWIW it is indicating us to be relatively cloud free through 16 or 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 My guess for 06z SPC outlook (does not apply to later outlooks)Slight risk (mainly east tho could extend to a nanometer west of DC)Probs:Torn: 2% (5% someplace nearby perhaps) Wind: 15%Hail 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wedges or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wedges or bust. EF0 wedge!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Tors for one, tors for all! First tor warning.... 12-1p 1-2p? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not sure if this has already been mentioned or not. The NWS confirmed an EF-1 tornado touched down in Martinsburg WV at 8:41 last night. Lots of downed trees and a roof was partially lifted off a house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 My guess for 06z SPC outlook (does not apply to later outlooks) Slight risk (mainly east tho could extend to a nanometer west of DC) Probs: Torn: 2% (5% someplace nearby perhaps) Wind: 15% Hail 5% I will go 5/0/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 GFS still not great at the sfc in the area.Early convection blah blah blah. Has gotten progressively slightly better at mid levels today but not much change with outcome in the end. May be time to hug the hi res models. HRRR in range soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 GFS still not great at the sfc in the area.Early convection blah blah blah. Has gotten progressively slightly better at mid levels today but not much change with outcome in the end. May be time to hug the hi res models. HRRR in range soon. Isn't this type of thing exactly what the NAM is supposed to be good at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Isn't this type of thing exactly what the NAM is supposed to be good at? Supposedly. HRRR and RAP are both dry thru at least noonish as well. That's probably about all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Confident Quincy's house will have a tornado pass nearby. Everywhere else is still tricky. 500mb low in the lakes is a good way to get a lee low around here tho.. and models suck at catching that. We shall see in the morning--I should be in bed already, 4 star tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Confident Quincy's house will have a tornado pass nearby. Everywhere else is still tricky. 500mb low in the lakes is a good way to get a lee low around here tho.. and models suck at catching that. We shall see in the morning--I should be in bed already, 4 star tomorrow am. I'll be sure to spam you with private messages and tweets when the 06z outlook has 30% tornado probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 areas of rain west of us are drying up with appalling rapidity then again, we wont get rain here in northern Virginia. I am too far south for rain, I need to move to Maryland to find cool enough climes for rain lmao I am laughing myself silly at the NWS, who has Woodbridge under 90 percent pops for "heavy rain" Tuesday afternoon. Maybe we'll see about four particles of drizzle. If I see drizzle, I will hold a block party with about 400 kegs of beer. Rain is getting as rare here as it is in deep south Texas geeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 areas of rain west of us are drying up with appalling rapidity then again, we wont get rain here in northern Virginia. I am too far south for rain, I need to move to Maryland to find cool enough climes for rain lmao Good news for us that want storms - we don't want precip around in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wow...00z hi resolution models are pretty impressive...especially the NMM - just wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Good news for us that want storms - we don't want precip around in the morning. I am cheering on the storms, I am really pulling for those in favored areas as Maryland and southeast VA, but it is too bad that northern VA can't at least get a couple inches of badly needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 0600 OTLK -- 0/5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Its Tuesday morning. Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Long Island and much of southeastern SNE - You are under the gun for massive rainfall today into tonight. Expect flooding threats especially in areas that have had a lot of antecedent rainfall. Southeastern VA and southern Maryland - You are likely to see severe weather this afternoon with the slight possibility of tornadoes. Northern VA - We will see some showers, but most of the focus for significant weather will be well north and east and also well southeast in VA and in Maryland. Woodbridge could see as much as a quarter inch of rain by late tonight, then clearing out and staying warm and humid. Remember NWS had northern Virginia forecast for HEAVY RAIN for FOUR FREAKING PERIODS, Monday, Monday Night, Tuesday, Tuesday Night. What a clusterfvck!!!! That might be realized if we were talking about a slow moving tropical storm or tropical depression - but this massive, epic FAIL is not that, not even close. In Maryland it may have verified in places, but not in North Virginia. Some of those mets desperately need refresher courses! Damn I am so damn jealous of Maryland! In winter Maryland gets waist deep snowpack. In summer Maryland gets plentiful rainfall. Maryland is THE PLACE TO BE in the Mid Atlantic, ten times out of ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF WY AND CO... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CAROLINAS. ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WI IS FORECAST TO TURN EWD LATER TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...A COMPACT BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO SERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT ARCING SWD AND SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS/LOWER MS VALLEY BY EVENING...AND CONTINUING TO A NEW ENGLAND/ERN CAROLINAS/NRN GULF COAST LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL SPREAD EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL PROMOTE ZONES OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AMPLE MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT /ESPECIALLY FROM NRN VA INTO NEW ENGLAND/ WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL /MAINLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP/. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS MOVE NEWD BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY 03Z AS THE EFFECTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT REDUCES THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. ...CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF WY AND CO... MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND APPROACH OF THE NRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN/CENTRAL WY INTO THE CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD WITHIN THE BROAD REGION OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE ERN US UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AS SELY LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND BECOME NWLY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WITH RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...SERN STATES... CURRENT STORMS FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN AL AND NRN GA ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES DURING THE MORNING...REGIONS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL ENHANCE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO NEW CONVECTION INITIATION BY LATE MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BUT GENERALLY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 20 KT WILL FAVOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND PULSE STORM STRUCTURES. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..WEISS/MOSIER.. 07/15/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC343 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...DEEPENING TROF AXIS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AS S/WVENERGY CROSSES WRN GRTLKS/UPR MIDWEST. DEWPTS IN THIS RGN ONLY 50F.MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...NOT MUCH AS CHANGED. STILL HV A LEE TROFACRS ERN CNTYS W/ A CDFNT NEAR THE OHVLY. CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR W/DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S. THERE/S PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLDS...MID-HIGHLVL...WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING LOW CLDS/FOG LMTD THUS FAR. SINCETHERE/S AMPLE MSTR...IF ANY RADL COOLING WERE TO TAKE PLACE...FOGCUD BECOME MORE WDSPRD. WL ADJUST AS NEEDED.ONCE WHATEVER EXISTING FOG/LOCLDS ERODE...AREA WL BE POISED FORANTHR DAY OF NMRS TSRA. SHUD HV ENUF HEATING FOR AMPLE INSTBY TODVLP. GDNC SUGGESTING SBCAPES WL EASILY EXCEED 1000 J/KG. DEWPTSREMAINING AOA 70F W/ PROVIDE EXTRA FUEL. THE LEE TROF AND APPRCHGCDFNT BOTH WL PROVIDE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. CWFA WL BE W/IN RRQ OFUPR JET ROUNDING BASE OF MID-UPR TROF...ADDING TO THE LIFT.OVERALL...THERES ENUF SWLY FLOW FOR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS.THUS...THINK THAT TSRA SHUD BE ABLE TO DVLP BY MIDDAY AND MATURE BYAFTN. AM GOING W/ LKLY-CAT POPS...ON HIGH END OF GDNC...W/CONTRIBUTION FM SREF. MOREOVER...GIVEN ABV SETUP...BAROCLINICCONTRAST OF THE FNT...AND AMS HISTORY PAST CPL DAYS...SEE NO REASONWHY ANTHR ROUND OF SVR WX WONT EVOLVE BY AFTN. DMGG WIND SHUD THETHE PRIMARY CONCERN.IN TERMS OF RAFL POTL...PWAT CLOSE TO 2 INCHES TDA...BUT INDIV CELLSSHUD BE PROGRESSIVE. RAFL FM PAST CPL DAYS HASNT MADE A BIG IMPACTON ANTECEDENT CONDS OUTSIDE OF METRO BALT. THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPESTMSTR TDA SHUD BE JUST E OF I-95...WHERE FFG STILL QUITE HIGH. ISSUESMAY ARISE IF CELLS START TRAINING...OR IF AXIS FURTHER W THANANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 DC Split already showing up on radar. great call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Jebs whining is sorta played out, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Are we still looking at a 1 1-10ish time frame for today? Thanks to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Are we still looking at a 11-1ish time frame for today for everything kicking off? Thanks to everyone! Edited* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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