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July 13-15 storm risk


Kmlwx

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anything more on tornado?  power in and out here internet not working well/.... can't get much info

 

TORNADO WARNING

MDC005-025-142230-

/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0017.140714T2155Z-140714T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

555 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

EASTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 555 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS NEAR PERRY HALL...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOODRING...

AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

KINGSVILLE...

PLEASANT HILLS...

BEL AIR...

PERRYMAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR

VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 7627 3946 7620 3939 7648 3947 7651

TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 241DEG 21KT 3943 7647

$

CS

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Just had lightning strike the spire of an old building directly across the street from where we were eating dinner. Saw chunks of wood in the road and the fire alarm was going off as we drove by.

Edit: In Charles Town, WV...

Sent from my iPhone

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that was last night out here--today the 2 storms didn't produce lightning until they were east of me.

That's what I meant. Should still be anvil stuff mainly in the stratiform rain or lack of behind the updrafts. Most intense lightning here was after the heavy rain passed and that's how it's looked in a lot of the storms.
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Lightning is fascinating. I don't think anyone can really predict it with any great accuracy. In general a FL like air mass will give you more lightning but not always.. same with a roaring/strengthening updraft. Location in the storm is another matter.

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Heavy rain for quite some while.  It was perfectly calm outside the entire storm and then for about 10 minutes we got an ominous strong wind.  completely calm again.  Seems like the clouds were right over us had potential but maybe just could never make landfall.  tor warnings just expired.

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Lightning is fascinating. I don't think anyone can really predict it with any great accuracy. In general a FL like air mass will give you more lightning but not always.. same with a roaring/strengthening updraft. Location in the storm is another matter.

I've always had the weird thought that if lightning was as rare as tornadoes on this planet, chasers would drive just as far and spend as much time chasing just to see and hear one instance of lightning/thunder.

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Not sure how accurate it is but the Weather Channel showed the radar going through early tomorrow and it showed us just getting pounded from like 10 pm to 4 am with thunderstorms just continuously training and redeveloping right over top of 95 from DC to Bmore.

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I've always had the weird thought that if lightning was as rare as tornadoes on this planet, chasers would drive just as far and spend as much time chasing just to see and hear one instance of lightning/thunder.

Probably. Most of them will take a good evening show as a consolation prize! Considering how much more of it there is you'd think the science of it would be considerably better.
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Not sure how accurate it is but the Weather Channel showed the radar going through early tomorrow and it showed us just getting pounded from like 10 pm to 4 am with thunderstorms just continuously training and redeveloping right over top of 95 from DC to Bmore.

Looks like the heaviest rain will mostly likely be east of I-95 tomorrow and tomorrow night. I hope that is the case because I am heading west tomorrow morning out to Harpers Ferry area and then Cunningham Falls on Wed. I want it to be pouring at my house- while I am not there.

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Very nice sunset here.  :lol:

:P I need the rain so no complaints. Tomorrow is likely going to be worse for heavy rain as the front moves slowly through. Instability will be waning so severe risk is kinda meh...maybe a brief window. Biggest threat tomorrow is flash flooding esp I-95 and east. I will be out west in the mountains by then though :)

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Not sure how accurate it is but the Weather Channel showed the radar going through early tomorrow and it showed us just getting pounded from like 10 pm to 4 am with thunderstorms just continuously training and redeveloping right over top of 95 from DC to Bmore.

I wish that were true for us in northern Virginia. However, I have learned through years of getting my heart broken from depending on the weather channel, not to watch TWC, just read this valuable forum and always expect a small amount of rain. If you live in Maryland though, you will get pounded by a lot of rain between now and Wednesday morning. Thats a given, Maryland and Pennsylvania are in the sweet spot for this weather system. Baltimore is going to get drowned tomorrow afternoon and evening by relentless storms, some of which may be severe.

 

For us in northern Virginia, the main forcing is well north of us. This is obvious from last night's radar as well as todays radar. Most of the rain has been focused over Maryland and SE Pennsylvania and north/central NJ. Tomorrow will unfold the same way. NoVa will get a shower or two with no more than a half inch of rain and even that is an outlier. The trough did not dig as far south as progged by models, and that also means we will have warm humid conditions all week, including Wednesday, maybe a high of 85 with a low of 67. Thats right on the money for mid July in these parts.

 

I should add that not only is Maryland, SE PA, and NJ at risk for potentially flooding rainfall through Wednesday morning, but also Long Island and a good chunk of SNE. This is a notable rain event for SNE and most of the northern Mid Atlantic except for northern Virginia and south. West Virginia has also seen good rains with this. Washington DC may get in on some of the action but there is a sharp cutoff about 5 miles south of the monument.

 

 

 

Next!

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