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July 13-15 storm risk


Kmlwx

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Is anyone else's AllisonHouse lightning feed not working?  Mine hasn't worked in months despite my loading a fresh placefile several times.  Have yet to hear back from the vendor too.

 

?? Have you gone to the AH website and copied and pasted the new url? They changed it about 4 months ago. If your just reloading the placefile that you had to begin with, that won't work.

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?? Have you gone to the AH website and copied and pasted the new url? They changed it about 4 months ago. If your just reloading the placefile that you had to begin with, that won't work.

Problem resolved.  They thought my subscription was canceled but kept on billing me -_-

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GFS keeps slowing it down, rain ends 4:00am West to 8:00am East on Wednesday, would that have definitive positive implications on tomorrow?

Has slowed slightly with the 500 low every run lately. Not sure we have enough time to slow it down to optimal but it's looking better unless we see crapvection all day.  

 

May be an enhanced tornado threat tomorrow somewhere in the region.. Euro would suggest SE VA area. 

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Has slowed slightly with the 500 low every run lately. Not sure we have enough time to slow it down to optimal but it's looking better unless we see crapvection all day.  

 

May be an enhanced tornado threat tomorrow somewhere in the region.. Euro would suggest SE VA area. 

 

gfsNE_con_3kmehi_030.gif

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Overall shear not as good further southeast but the sfc low the Euro popped would probably increase low level shear, plus longer time priming etc. May not happen.. a 500 low in that area of the lakes often tries to pop a sfc reflection somewhere locally tho. 

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Overall shear not as good further southeast but the sfc low the Euro popped would probably increase low level shear, plus longer time priming etc. May not happen.. a 500 low in that area of the lakes often tries to pop a sfc reflection somewhere locally tho. 

 

95 east day tomorrow for some naders. Today we all have a chance but best chance NE MD/SE PA. 

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IMHO greatest threat for tor's today will be with local backing along waterfront area's. Increases helicty and lowers LCL's

And those are pretty common areas for possible spinups too. Will have to watch areas down in Charles Co, St. Mary's etc. 

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

WS 0418
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  10%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

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I think it will ultimately back to the Blue Ridge given current guidance.

I agree. If current guidance holds, that is. Tomorrow might be a day where right around DC locally is the firing zone and stuff really cranks east. We will see. 12z NAM held some good winds at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb into the afternoon. Earlier runs really looked paltry with winds aloft. 

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