arlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Maybe Tuesday too. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... . ...CAROLINAS/DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... THE BRUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST STATES AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...BUT STEADY HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS ABOUT EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ARE NOT CERTAIN...WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VA...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON BUOYANCY DETAILS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER. WHERE ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR...THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL INSTANCES OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Maybe Tuesday too. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... . ...CAROLINAS/DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... THE BRUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST STATES AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...BUT STEADY HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS ABOUT EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ARE NOT CERTAIN...WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VA...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON BUOYANCY DETAILS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER. WHERE ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR...THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL INSTANCES OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. Best instability south and east of I-95 on Tuesday. Still could be a decent severe day but today should be more widespread esp metro areas and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Is anyone else's AllisonHouse lightning feed not working? Mine hasn't worked in months despite my loading a fresh placefile several times. Have yet to hear back from the vendor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Wow another fantastic storm in columbia. Multiple CGs in the neighborhood with torrential rain and gusting to 45 Yes, woke me up right at this time. Storms better hold off today until later. I have a 455pm flight out of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 SPC thunderstorm outlook has us in the 70% shaded area between 20-0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Is anyone else's AllisonHouse lightning feed not working? Mine hasn't worked in months despite my loading a fresh placefile several times. Have yet to hear back from the vendor too. Mine has been working flawlessly. As well as all their other feeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Atmosphere seems primed for this slow moving front. Sun out here in Rockville. I think we're rocking & rolling pretty good this afternoon. Besides the usual severe aspects, I feel training storms may pose a FF threat. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Atmosphere seems primed for this slow moving front. Sun out here in Rockville. I think we're rocking & rolling pretty good this afternoon. Besides the usual severe aspects, I feel training storms may pose a FF threat. Just my 2 cents. Surprised LWX hasn't issued a FFW. They are usually pretty quick to pull the trigger on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yes, woke me up right at this time. Storms better hold off today until later. I have a 455pm flight out of DCA. The NAM and HRRR are not your friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z NAM is much better in regards to bulk shear this afternoon... keeps it around ~30-35 kts for a good period this afternoon which is much better for sustaining convection this evening SBCAPE of ~3700 and MLCAPE of ~2750 for 21z at KDCA Updated HWO as of 10:15 mentions isolated tornado and damaging wind gusts the primary threats... earlier said an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z NAM is much better in regards to bulk shear this afternoon... keeps it around ~30-35 kts for a good period this afternoon which is much better for sustaining convection this evening SBCAPE of ~3700 and MLCAPE of ~2750 for 21z at KDCA Updated HWO as of 10:15 mentions isolated tornado and damaging wind gusts the primary threats... earlier said an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out SREF is bullish in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We should continue cooking this morning into this afternoon... decent sun south of M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Through midnight on the 12z NAM 4km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Watch they'll be one tornadic cell over harrisburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Decent heating at home, sunny 81/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Still 77.6/76 imby, whole lotta H^2O out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 81/76 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Updated morning AFD from LWX... LWX still banging the TOR potential drum .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 10AM...OBS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ TEMPS IN THE M80S ANDDEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEG MARK - MAKE FOR HEAT INDICES NEAR90F. A MIX OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL DO LITTLE TOINHIBIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...WHICH IS INCREASING BYTHE MINUTE. 12Z KIAD SOUNDING...AS WELL AS SURROUNDING REGIONALOBS SHOW A FAIRLY LOADED OVERHEAD COLUMN - W/ SFC AND MUCAPESALREADY IN THE 2-2.5K RANGE ALREADY. FORECAST AND SOUNDINGMODIFICATIONS HAVE THESE VALUES BORDERING 4K J/KG HEADING INTO THEMID AFTN/MAX HEATING TIMES.WE`RE STILL UNDER THE BASE OF A LARGER UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSSTHE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL SEND A MINOR SHORTWAVE KINK IN THEUPPER FLOW TOWARD THE AREA IN THE COMING HRS. THIS FEATURE WILLDEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EWD AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WILLBE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO BE OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY ASSCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS NEAR THE APLCNS FROM THE WEST.LOCAL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A LEE SFC TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THEAPLCNS IN SHORT ORDER AND PRODUCING IT`S OWN CONVECTION FROM THENRN SHEN VLY AND EWD...FROM EARLY AFTN ONWARD. AS THE SHORTWAVETROUGH NEARS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/ERN SEABOARD...THE LOW LEVEL SHEARPARAMETERS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE - GIVING ONGOINGCONVECTION MORE ENERGY FOR ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIALLYMESOVORTICES AND/OR TORNADO PRODUCTION. NERN MD APPEARS TO THE BEMORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THESE ELEMENTS TO COME TOGETHER ACROSSOUR REGION...IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR/TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Updated morning AFD from LWX... LWX still banging the TOR potential drum The locally run ARW and NMM bring some decent storms in. WRF SPC run at 00z also develops storms over/near us. Seems like good consensus we'll get some sort of line through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z NAM supercell composite for 21z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We never get real super cells in the ma, only kidney beans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Still 77.6/76 imby, whole lotta H^2O out there sorry about that. There will be a lot less of me by Wednesday. I know I hate it when i am everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 sorry about that. There will be a lot less of me by Wednesday. I know I hate it when i am everywhere. You're no match for my dehumidifier. Get out of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Rooting for rain, cool winds, and some thunder, but nothing too drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Rooting for rain, cool winds, and some thunder, but nothing too drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 GFS is pretty wet for tomorrow. Maybe we pull it out. Cape over 2K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Think I am heading to NE MD for some chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 HRRR has some decent updraft helicity headed toward Balt later.. tho I am still not that sold on much tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z GFS advertising 9.7 C/KM low level lapse rates at KIAD at 18z... that would imply a good chance for strong damaging winds, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 1630 OTLK still 2/0/15... disco below ..WV/VA TO NJ/SRN NEW ENGLAND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IS TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF PA/WV. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN VA AND CENTRAL PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING FROM THIS AREA EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...30-40 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF WIND DAMAGE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT SOME RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO FROM NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA INTO NJ THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.