Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Morning wedges!!!!!! Seriously though...definitely seems like agreement now that the 500 low will go right around that general area. Timing seems to be locking in too. That's a shame...it's always something, right? Would be a shame.. great look other than timing. Either way Tue still looks like a storm day on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I had to dig deep to pull this one out. I think it pretty much sums up what our operating philosophy should be in this part of the world lol The funny thing is you remembered that this existed lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 nam4 for tomorrow.. 4 hr streaks ending 7p so i don't need to post 4 images. basically a broken to numerous line passing thru in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Maryland is going to get a LOT of rain. We should be south of most of the forcing. After this passes through. the rest of the week should be seasonal, low 90s with lows around 75. I dont know where people got a big cooldown from. This is mid July, not late November. (Never trust hype about cool weather in mid summer in Washington. it will never happen.) Lets get this quarter inch of rain over with in Virginia. I want the sun back! It's a good thing I got the klingon anti storm shield back in perfect working order! My lawn was over a foot tall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Maryland is going to get a LOT of rain. We should be south of most of the forcing. After this passes through. the rest of the week should be seasonal, low 90s with lows around 75. I dont know where people got a big cooldown from. This is mid July, not late November. (Never trust hype about cool weather in mid summer in Washington. it will never happen.) Lets get this quarter inch of rain over with in Virginia. I want the sun back! rain maybe. isn't this the big polar vortex that the weather channel is calling for? (lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Maryland is going to get a LOT of rain. We should be south of most of the forcing. After this passes through. the rest of the week should be seasonal, low 90s with lows around 75. I dont know where people got a big cooldown from. This is mid July, not late November. (Never trust hype about cool weather in mid summer in Washington. it will never happen.) Lets get this quarter inch of rain over with in Virginia. I want the sun back! It's a good thing I got the klingon anti storm shield back in perfect working order! My lawn was over a foot tall! Good luck with that forecast, Jeb Going to be a decent amount lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 I had to dig deep to pull this one out. I think it pretty much sums up what our operating philosophy should be in this part of the world lol I feel like a famous person right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Tue still looks ok for general slight risk svr storms to me so it's not super meh other than it could have been more and that seems tough to salvage at this pt. Maybe we can get training to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 rain maybe. isn't this the big polar vortex that the weather channel is calling for? (lol). the only thing the weather channel cares about is money. they hype for ratings which translates into cash. they dont care about anyone else, not even in tornado weather. weather channel only cares about making money, not saving lives. thats why they hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Good luck with that forecast, Jeb Going to be a decent amount lower than that. You got me KML. Its going to be 84 for a high. Thats about four degrees below normal. WOW BIG Polar Vortex! Man its REALLY gonna cool down! Maybe in Barrow Alaska lmfao, not in Washington in mid July. Four degrees below normal is no cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Good luck with that forecast, Jeb Going to be a decent amount lower than that. Jeb is just taunting mother. Making her mad. He might get us some frost. The variability for many months in a row has been awesome hasn't it? From an enthusiest pov, July has been quite entertaining. 2 shots of Canadian air and decent storms in the first 2 weeks of July? Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 You got me KML. Its going to be 84 for a high. Thats about four degrees below normal. WOW BIG Polar Vortex! Man its REALLY gonna cool down! Maybe in Barrow Alaska lmfao, not in Washington in mid July. Four degrees below normal is no cool down. Didn't say it'd be huge. but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few highs in the low 80s and some lows decently down into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I keep thinking that this is about to end, but the TSR is slow to move east, and the line behind it near Leesburg has intensified and even has some lightning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Well, all it took for us to get a little rain was for me to leave town. Been watching storm after storm going over my house on radar from here in lynchburg. Hope my sump is working fine... Even better, I'll miss the refreshing cool shot later this week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 GFS is similar - it might be a hair slower...which would be good for any storms on Tuesday. Timing is still off by a bit but that's what we've been expecting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Tomorrow I could see being 5/5/30 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Tomorrow I could see being 5/5/30 day I'm going with 2/5/15 for the 0600z outlook. Subject to change at 13z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'm going with 2/5/15 for the 0600z outlook. Subject to change at 13z.I'd go with that. Not sure there will be 5 tor or even 30 wind anywhere. Best tor area looks like it might be njish up to eastern ny with better sfc backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'd think they could bring day 2 up 95 and east at least as well. GFS still not too gung-ho west of that around here tho not completely sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'd go with that. Not sure there will be 5 tor or even 30 wind anywhere. Best tor area looks like it might be njish up to eastern ny with better sfc backing. Quincy seems to agree with you on that tor potential placement. I could still see 30% wind as I feel like we've gotten it with less favorable setups. But for the 06z at least 2/5/15 is the guess I'll go with. Even if they do push to 30% I could see it waiting until 1630z when things are starting to kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'd think they could bring day 2 up 95 and east at least as well. GFS still not too gung-ho west of that around here tho not completely sure why. Well on the COD site it keeps a lot of the CAPE to the east. I haven't looked but do dews lower? Maybe that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Pouring outside again. Looks like quick hitting cells pushing thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Radar is a line of storms across the entire freakin' country. Just had a few flashes and saw some towering cumulus to my nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Wow another fantastic storm in columbia. Multiple CGs in the neighborhood with torrential rain and gusting to 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 only lasted 8 minutes but what a doozy downpour, 0.40", and gust to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 partly cloudy and mild, some humidity. no storm anywhere close to Woodbridge. nice night for a summer campout I dont expect any rain til late tomorrow afternoon and even then maybe a sprinkle. I'm well south of the main forcing. Maylanders - you are in the sweet spot. You're gonna need a bigger boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New Day 1 0600 out... (2/0/15)... 2 TOR goes from DCAish to BAL and into PA/NJ ..MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AREAS OF EARLY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY NON-SEVERE. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS VA IN THE LEE TROUGH...WITH SLY SURFACE WINDS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS FROM THE DELMARVA NWD TO THE OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN PA/SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NRN VA ACROSS ERN PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG...SMALL LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT COULD HELP A FEW STORMS ACQUIRE ROTATION...WITH A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE AND/OR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WITH SMALL BOWS. THE GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP HAIL MAINLY SMALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 In other words DCA is on the south periphery of this event. That was fairly evident earlier this evening, with Maryland and NE getting severely waterboarded while we were nice and dry. I expect that pattern to persist into late Tuesday night. DCA has a chance. I am too far south. NWS had Woodbridge Virginia carrying 60 percent pops for Sunday night!!!!! WHAT A FAIL! We were partly cloudy! Only later, around 2am did they finally summon up some spine and lower tonight's pop to 30 percent LMAO! One thing I find obscene is NWS having Woodbridge Virginia under Heavy Rain from Monday thru Tuesday night. FOUR FREAKIN' PERIODS! Monday, Monday Night, Tuesday, and Tuesday Night. Thats pure hype. Woodbridge Virginia should be under 40% pops for the entire period. Also some forecasters need to go back to meteorology school for about thirty years. There is wayyyyyy too much hype in the weather community these days. Every event is hyped. Polar Vortex my ass. A high of 84 degrees is not a cooldown, it's a LETDOWN, it is near normal summer weather for daytime highs in mid July in northern Virginia/ Washington DC. Now, Maryland and northeast ---- Those regions are another, completely different story with this weather system. Those areas carry a slight chance of severe and definitely a few inches of rain. They will be under flood watches by Monday night. As of 315am, there is another red thunderstorm in MD. This weather system is a Maryland Special. As of 430am, most of the moisture comin from the west is drying up as it passes over northern Virginia. What an epic fail. What An Epic Fail. If there is one thing that the Washington Metropolitan Region does very well with weather ---- IT IS EPIC FAIL. That, we are very good at. We have postgraduate HONORS in epic fail. This is ALL Maryland's event. We are too far south. As for northern Virginia..............Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Morning AFD from LWX: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC357 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONSACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THEAREA TUESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THEEASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...ZONE OF CONVERGENCE/LIFT FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA NORTHEASTTHROUGH NORTHERN MARYLAND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SCATTEREDSHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS NO SEVERERISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS GENERAL AREAWILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE EPISODES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.HRRR AND LWX WFR-ARW SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE BYDAYBREAK...BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TOLIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THEN...TRANSITIONING TO NO MENTIONOF WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT/LOWER SOUTHERNMARYLAND.SYNOPTICALLY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSSTHE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT STILL RESIDES OVER THE GREATLAKES. A LEE TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE CWA...AND THIS WILL BE IN PLACETODAY/TONIGHT AND COUPLE WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TO PRODUCENUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITHDEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES AND PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL MORNINGBREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1K-2K J/KG OF CAPE BYAFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...NAM SUGGESTS 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TOOR ABOVE 30 KT THUS PROVIDING THE EXPECTATION FOR ORGANIZED STRONGTO SEVERE CONVECTION /MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS/. PRIMARY RISKWILL BE DAMAGING WINDS HOWEVER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATEDTORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT.IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUESRAISE THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. AT THISTIME...EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT EASTWARDSTORM MOTION WHERE FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE LOCALIZED AND FOUNDWITHIN AREAS OF LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND/OR AREAS THATEXPERIENCE LOCALIZED TRAINING. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESERISKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Euro still says Tuesday is a go, 6Z NAM also seemed slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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