Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Impressive...we are outlooked for a D6 threat on the 4-8 day outlook from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Impressive...we are outlooked for a D6 threat on the 4-8 day outlook from SPC. Haven't seen that in awhile... We also have a 5% chance for wind and hail today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 Haven't seen that in awhile... We also have a 5% chance for wind and hail today. Plenty of time for us to muck up the timing and stuff, though. Which in the DC area is always a good bet. I haven't looked at the models re: Day 6 at all but maybe later on the more knowledgeable severe folks can chime in. I know we have gotten our fair share of D4 and 5 outlooks but D6 is pretty unusual. One thing I've noticed often happens is you'll get a D6 from SPC and then it will disappear for D5 and D4 as you get closer and then show up again as a See Text on D3 and then slowly come back to a mundane slight risk with 15% wind probs by D1. We shall see (my catch phrase). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Plenty of time for us to muck up the timing and stuff, though. Which in the DC area is always a good bet. I haven't looked at the models re: Day 6 at all but maybe later on the more knowledgeable severe folks can chime in. I know we have gotten our fair share of D4 and 5 outlooks but D6 is pretty unusual. D6 outlooks for this area are indeed pretty rare, as there just usually so many uncertainties with regards to timing and impact of convection the previous day (or two). But I think that this one is justified. You have pretty impressive model agreement with a very anomalous trough and accompanying strong front approaching on Tuesday, and the strength of the forcing and wind fields along with likely moderate instability give that day some pretty significant potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Been kinda excited about potential with the fauxlar vortex. Euro last night would be a pretty big NE US event.. perhaps focused northeast of here. GFS still has a bit to go but it's perhaps moving in the right direction. Main concerns are timing and possibly tons of junk convection.. but that's a way off still to get too into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Trough and 500mb low location on 12z gfs is fairly classic for high end severe/tornado events.. tho long closed lows are often tricky with winds being right for tor outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 D6 outlooks for this area are indeed pretty rare, as there just usually so many uncertainties with regards to timing and impact of convection the previous day (or two). But I think that this one is justified. You have pretty impressive model agreement with a very anomalous trough and accompanying strong front approaching on Tuesday, and the strength of the forcing and wind fields along with likely moderate instability give that day some pretty significant potential here. Yeah this "polar vortex" thing looks extremely impressive for this time of year. It would be a shame to waste it on crapvection. Been kinda excited about potential with the fauxlar vortex. Euro last night would be a pretty big NE US event.. perhaps focused northeast of here. GFS still has a bit to go but it's perhaps moving in the right direction. Main concerns are timing and possibly tons of junk convection.. but that's a way off still to get too into. I feel it's sort of like winter where you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out - the models are bound to trend something less impressive for us. I like that we aren't on the fringe of that D6 outlook, though. Gives me a little more confidence in something at least somewhat exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 Trough and 500mb low location on 12z gfs is fairly classic for high end severe/tornado events.. tho long closed lows are often tricky with winds being right for tor outbreaks. Does the fact that it has those dual closed lows have any impact on the end result? Wonder if this is the kind of setup where someplace in the Mid-Atlantic to NE corridor gets a mod risk. Looks potentially exciting. I just wish it wasn't 6 days away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Does the fact that it has those dual closed lows have any impact on the end result? Wonder if this is the kind of setup where someplace in the Mid-Atlantic to NE corridor gets a mod risk. Looks potentially exciting. I just wish it wasn't 6 days away.... 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 This is from the CIPS site based on the 00z GFS from last night at 120hrs. Does seem to place more tornado threat NE of here at least based on that run. 12z hasn't updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I would imagine 12z will be "better" locally on analogs given the shift of the 500mb low on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 I would imagine 12z will be "better" locally on analogs given the shift of the 500mb low on the gfs. The New England subforum is weening out on this potential it seems. Wiz is really excited (naturally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 12z GFS sounding for 120 hrs (12z TUES) at KDCA (as far as Earl Barker goes): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The New England subforum is weening out on this potential it seems. Wiz is really excited (naturally). Timing is really the only issue for now... 12z GFS slowed down and shifted south a little. It's definitely better locally but still focuses 95 and east probably. Hefty signal tho from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Euro has good timing of the shortwave. Pops a leeside low as well. Also Monday looks like an iso type severe day at least on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Euro has good timing of the shortwave. Pops a leeside low as well. Also Monday looks like an iso type severe day at least on the Euro. ecmwf_z500_vort_conus2_23.png Nice CAPE on Monday, not so much on Tuesday from the Euro. Not going to fret at this lead time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Nice CAPE on Monday, not so much on Tuesday from the Euro. Not going to fret at this lead time, though. Yeah, tho it has pockets up to about 2k or so .. fires early and then blows up between 18z and 0z too. Usually high shear is low CAPE around here so we can't do both right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Yeah, tho it has pockets up to about 2k or so .. fires early and then blows up between 18z and 0z too. Usually high shear is low CAPE around here so we can't do both right? Stupid clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 SPC is now highlighting a D4 risk (skipped over a day) for us - the area is pretty different from the D6 outlook yesterday. Additionally, SPC alludes to a further threat along the eastern seaboard beyond D4 but it's not clear if they would include us in that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Chose a good event to write about for CWG lol. Uhh something may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Chose a good event to write about for CWG lol. Uhh something may happen. Ian writing about severe weather and its not meh? Stop the presses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Ian writing about severe weather and its not meh? Stop the presses! By Sunday he'll be mehing hard...don't you worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 A quick question- The Day 4-8 outlook is only issued when severe storms have a 30% chance of forming. So, does this mean that we are technically in the "Moderate" risk area this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Having a closed ull dropping in like this in July can't be common. I don't remember any in recent memory but I don't track severe so I could be missing plenty of things. Even in my simpleton knowledge I'm kinda excited about the setup. I love ul dynamics. They bring surprises more often than not. Somewhere along the ec could see some unusually strong tornados if things time right. Back to lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 A quick question- The Day 4-8 outlook is only issued when severe storms have a 30% chance of forming. So, does this mean that we are technically in the "Moderate" risk area this far out? 30% is slight still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Having a closed ull dropping in like this in July can't be common. I don't remember any in recent memory but I don't track severe so I could be missing plenty of things. Even in my simpleton knowledge I'm kinda excited about the setup. I love ul dynamics. They bring surprises more often than not. Somewhere along the ec could see some unusually strong tornados if things time right. Back to lurking Yes...definitely a situation to watch. I'm excited but I've been beaten down by too many DC area severe failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 From the CIPS 00z Analog Guidance These are from the 72hr period, 96hr period and the 120hr period. Not too shabby - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 30% is slight still. Would you happen to know the Moderate requirements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Warrior Bigfoot, on 11 Jul 2014 - 11:26 AM, said:Warrior Bigfoot, on 11 Jul 2014 - 11:26 AM, said:Warrior Bigfoot, on 11 Jul 2014 - 11:26 AM, said:Would you happen to know the Moderate requirements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 At this far of a lead I'm going to toss out a guess just for fun - I'll go with a higher end slight risk both Monday and Tuesday but not moderate (maybe there will be one in other areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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