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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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4-6" per hour rates now over southern Monmouth County. The shear is playing games there and redeveloping the cells over the same location.

basically with this type of setup its impossible to accurately predict amounts and locations of those amounts of qpf and the models for the most part don't have a clue right now

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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I can confirm that the cell over extreme northern Bergan County and western Rockland County is indeed rotating. The winds just to my east are out of the south while the winds just to my west are out of the northwest. You can clearly see the whole cloud structure rotating slowly.

 

Can also confirm that its definitely more "classic" than the junk to the south. 

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The rain shaft just missed me here on the Ramsey/Mahwah border. Some very impressive cloud structures and visible broad rotation.

I doubt there is enough rotation for anything tornadic. Just doesn't look that impressive on radar.

Meanwhile the sea breeze has kicked in nicely here which pretty much guarantees nothing severe here

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The rain shaft just missed me here on the Ramsey/Mahwah border. Some very impressive cloud structures and visible broad rotation.

I doubt there is enough rotation for anything tornadic. Just doesn't look that impressive on radar.

Meanwhile the sea breeze has kicked in nicely here which pretty much guarantees nothing severe here

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it clearly wasn't tornadaic but it looked great in person.

Hold the phone on that one. Girlfriend who lives in new city under that cell said she has large branches coming down everywhere in her development and wind is very gusty there currently. She even had some hail, told her to send some pictures to me once it passes for reference here....

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Hold the phone on that one. Girlfriend who lives in new city under that cell said she has large branches coming down everywhere in her development and wind is very gusty there currently. She even had some hail, told her to send some pictures to me once it passes for reference here....

Wet microburst
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Not sure why Upton canceled the warning

Have to say upton is particularly gun shy today in the midst of these storms. The last 15 minutes the radar has really started to light up big time! If anything may start seeing some blanket flask flood warnings with all the training since these storms are moving like molasses

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Getting convective debris from storm in Central NJ on Long Island. The strong cold pool with this cell is making the updraft lean upshear, and not straight up thus the air parcels can't reach the instability currently available, and is not initiating new convection. The shear is just not strong enough. By the time the shear is strong enough we will lose later the instability to initiate any new convection. 

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