IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The good shear axis is finally advecting into the area. PWAT's are >2.0" It gonna pour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 7.8" bullseye hrrr_t_precip_nyc_15.png It's in Monmouth County, so that's the only reason it'd be 10% believable rather than 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 It's in Monmouth County, so that's the only reason it'd be 10% believable rather than 0%. If the convection increases in coverage like it's forecast to do so I would not be shocked to see some prolific totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Each consecutive run of the HRRR has become more and more meh. As you can see the line it had moving through between 3 and 5PM was nothing but fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 storm in EPA just went severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 storm in EPA just went severe. Supercell might be dropping golf-ball sized hail: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 343 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR SKIPPACK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LANSDALE AND HATFIELD AROUND 355 PM EDT... FRICKS AROUND 400 PM EDT... CHALFONT AROUND 405 PM EDT... DUBLIN AND HATBORO AROUND 410 PM EDT... DOYLESTOWN AND ROBESONIA AROUND 415 PM EDT... GARDENVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE INCH OR LARGER. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Each consecutive run of the HRRR has become more and more meh. As you can see the line it had moving through between 3 and 5PM was nothing but fantasy. that was obvious as I mentioned around noon - what is also becoming obvious is the Severe Watch might have to be extended past 8PM because of poor timing by NWS- not 100% sure yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Some breaks of sun here now. I'm getting very impatient. When the storms do finally get here they better dump for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 that was obvious as I mentioned around noon The 18z NAM is about as meh as it gets. Barely 0.25" near the city through 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 let's all forget that the models often struggle with convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 18z NAM is about as meh as it gets. Barely 0.25" near the city through 12z tomorrow. now that will be a bust too low in some locations BUT in others might be close - but most of us will see over 0.25 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Great consistency today by the HRRR hrrr_ref_nyc_7.png Great inconsistency by the HRRR - wasn't even close - I think we can ignore this model the rest of the way regarding details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Great inconsistency by the HRRR - wasn't even close - I think we can ignore this model the rest of the way regarding details It was good for a few runs in a row and then around the 13z run it crapped the bed. I never thought activity would be so sparse that some areas might stay dry today. Never in a million years. The 12z Euro today had widespread convection before 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 now that will be a bust too low in some locations BUT in others might be close - but most of us will see over 0.25 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Do people still not realize some areas can pick up a quick couple of inches literally in minutes? Also do people not realize that modeled QPF amounts and convection do not mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun is out here..feels pretty humid outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Do people still not realize some areas can pick up a quick couple of inches literally in minutes? Also do people not realize that modeled QPF amounts and convection do not mix? Part of the freakout, at least from my end was that the upstream radar wasn't looking that good until the last few frames. I guess I just expected a total washout deluge given what the models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Do people still not realize some areas can pick up a quick couple of inches literally in minutes? Also do people not realize that modeled QPF amounts and convection do not mix? Quoted for Yanks, who, quite fittingly, is getting the ol' 7-10 spliteroo by the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Ff warning for monmouth. . BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 428 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LONG BRANCH...ASBURY PARK...SANDY HOOK... NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 830 PM EDT * AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE BORDER BETWEEN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN EXTIMATED SO FAR. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PLEASANT PLAINS...MANTOLOKING...MANASQUAN...LEISURE VILLAGE...LAKEWOOD... LAKEHURST...CEDAR GLEN LAKES...BRICK TOWNSHIP...WOODRUFF... WHITING...POINT PLEASANT BEACH AND JACKSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Part of the freakout, at least from my end was that the upstream radar wasn't looking that good until the last few frames. I guess I just expected a total washout deluge given what the models were showing.Things most definitely will ramp up more later, but I agree that I would have thought there'd be bigger storms than there are now.....also a bit more numerous. (Though the one near Reading does look to pack a punch with a nice bow echo) But given the hype for this event, the outcome for many of us would be less than favorable Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 looks like the stores by the jersey shore are coming this way....With all the shear each cluster is moving in slightly different directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Flash flood warning now for Monmouth County. Under a severe warning here at work in Bergan County although I expect the storms to miss mostly to my north and go into NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Strong line segment forming to my south. Looks fairly impressive on radar. Very frequent thunder already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Thunder here now in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Well the HRRR got the Monmouth County bullsye correct, just setting up in the southern part of the county instead of northern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like a line forming in PA with a bowing look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Central NJ is not in a favorable location right now for severe as that storm entering NJ close to trenton has lost its severe warnings which it had in PA http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like my best shot at home is for the activity currently near Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Dopplar radar estimates are already exceeding 3" in southern Monmouth County. That's total fallen, not per hour rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Well the HRRR got the Monmouth County bullsye correct, just setting up in the southern part of the county instead of northern. Yeah it looks like southern Monmouth still will get 4-6" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Central NJ is not in a favorable location right now for severe as that storm entering NJ close to trenton has lost its severe warnings which it had in PA http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 I hope those die so the line can develop better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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