Superstorm93 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Would really appreciate it if someone could take a look at some BUFKIT profiles for the EWR area from now until about 4pm and give me a general rundown on how much lightning these things might be able to produce. I'm working construction and the boss wants to know if he should just call the day at noon. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Would really appreciate it if someone could take a look at some BUFKIT profiles for the EWR area from now until about 4pm and give me a general rundown on how much lightning these things might be able to produce. I'm working construction and the boss wants to know if he should just call the day at noon. Thanks. Here is the 12z OKX sounding. I will let you be the judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like the HRRR really gets the fun going after 7PM. If nothing else, what a dumpage over the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I know this is banter - but can a mod combine the 2 threads for this event since the svr and the flash flooding usually happen together - would make things less confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I know this is banter - but can a mod combine the 2 threads for this event since the svr and the flash flooding usually happen together - would make things less confusing No I agree. This thread should have never been started. Its all basically one long event, severe, flooding, whatever and should be in one thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This time neither of you can blame me. I didn't start either of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This time neither of you can blame me. I didn't start either of them I shall still blame you for nostalgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like the HRRR gives the area around Freehold 4-6" of rain. Not just a snow magnet, a precip magnet Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This time neither of you can blame me. I didn't start either of them Flooding is always going to be the biggest threat around here. I doubt we see tornadoes or large hail. At most we'll see some storms produce wind gusts, but some places will have 3-4" of rain+ from last night thru Wednesday so that is the bigger story. Not saying we shouldn't talk about the severe potential its just that we know how that usually plays out around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Are we supposed to clear out. It's really cloudy right now which I assume would kill the severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Are we supposed to clear out. It's really cloudy right now which I assume would kill the severe chances. I think we were supposed to be cloudy all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 If this comes close to verifying some areas might see serious flooding. This is only through midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 12z GFS is 1-2" just today with the heaviest right over NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Great consistency today by the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Now THAT is one hell of a bowed squall line coming through around 5 PM! That would be a sight to see for sure. You have to promise us all that if this verifies you'll stop whining about the SW Suffolk County screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 so basically between 3 and 5 is when the storms/flash flooding return today according to the HRRR ? Questionable how much severe we get since daytime heating and more instability is in question with this cloud cover in place http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 also watch this radar looks kind of anemic right now if late this afternoon verifies this is going to have to start getting more active in the next hour or so especially to the southwest of us since the main flow is from that direction with a very slow east movement http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 You have to promise us all that if this verifies you'll stop whining about the SW Suffolk County screw zone hrrr_ref_nyc_8.png I promise that if i get a severe thunderstorm today and not a sloppy second im used to from mother nature you have a deal sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Northern NJ has real severe potential if things can clear out. HRRR showing 40-50kts of shear in place by mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Northern NJ has real severe potential if things can clear out. HRRR showing 40-50kts of shear in place by mid-afternoon. Northern NJ has some real potential for some spinups/small tornadoes and wind damage. Just have to see how the atmosphere destabilizes through this afternoon. If sun wins out today watch out NJ onto LI, HRRR/NAM hi-res thats been posted today already several times is already advertising a fairly potent bow segment squall line forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Visible satellite indicates most of us should see some breaks over the next 1-2 hours before convection fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Visible satellite indicates most of us should see some breaks over the next 1-2 hours before convection fires.Ive already got sun and clouds and it feels humid today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Visible satellite indicates most of us should see some breaks over the next 1-2 hours before convection fires. really ? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 really ? The patch over the PA NJ border might be able to get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 ESE winds at LGA. Greatest directional shear is in the NE NJ-NYC area. Will see if they can destabilize enough later, since that's some really strong backing in the low-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The patch over the PA NJ border might be able to get here that at best is hazy partial sunshine - IMO its beginning to look like the heavy rain storms is going to be later then sooner http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 that at best is hazy partial sunshine - IMO its beginning to look like the heavy rain storms is going to be later then sooner http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Wayyyy too early to be throwing in the towel on storm chances right now. IMO we do get some storms hitting the tri state area around 5-7pm severity just may be limited due to factors related to instability like sunshine or lack thereof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 that at best is hazy partial sunshine - IMO its beginning to look like the heavy rain storms is going to be later then sooner http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Getting sun now. I don't see much activity getting into the area for at least a few more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Wayyyy too early to be throwing in the towel on storm chances right now. IMO we do get some storms hitting the tri state area around 5-7pm severity just may be limited due to factors related to instability like sunshine or lack thereof One thing that will help us on the coast is a lack of a strong onshore flow. It's humid and still here right now! I think we have a shot today based on experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 One thing that will help us on the coast is a lack of a strong onshore flow. It's humid and still here right now! I think we have a shot today based on experienceGot that feeling as well! NEG NAO is making even me look better with him being a debbie downer right now that alone is victory enough for me today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun's emerging from the clouds here. Muggy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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