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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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Some damage here to signs and some outdoor furniture was thrown airborne into a fence so it had to be 50 maybe 60 plus mph tons of lightning still. It had to be long islands day eventually

 

Yeah, we had a terrific storm here. Tons of CGs and booming thunder. We did very well on LI today thanks to the SB CAPE verifying much higher than forecast.

 

12z NAM 6-hour forecast on the left, 18z NAM initialization on the left.

 

post-73-0-96764900-1405456428_thumb.gif

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Was in Lynbrook earlier during those training cells. There was flooding along

Merrick Rd and Peninsula Blvd.The radar estimate of around 2.00" looks good.

Intense CG strikes and very little wind. The best thunderstorm of the year

so far.

 

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If this keeps up the drainage system might be in trouble again around Long Beach-it flooded last night and might again today if the training sets up overhead. It's never really been repaired after Sandy and floods easily. The NAM however moves the axis of rain back west and doesn't have much else for Long Island. We'll have to see what happens since we had almost 2" of rain last night when little was predicted (and probably over 0.5" already today)

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Finally getting into some clearing here with some real nice towering CU off to my west. Might have jumped the gun on declaring the threat dead. We'll see if the stuff in south Jersey can make it up here.

im watching that line just west of wilkes-barre PA and seems to be moving due west as well

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