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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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Gonna get bashed for this one lol.....but I've noticed that virtually ANY time we have a situation where the setup is ripe for storms, it simply does not pan out. However, when the forecast is for more of the "isolated storms" rather than numerous, those are the ones that can give us a big cell in the metro areas. Otherwise, the tendency is almost always break down or weaken "lines" or "clusters" of true severe storms before reaching the NENJ NYC metro

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Some sort of weak spout or something just came through lower Manhattan.

 

My office is at the Battery, facing southwest on the 38th floor.  All of a sudden, there was a slight increase in wind accompanied by cloud/fog, with a clearly deliniated boundary and a change in direction in wind. It was very loose and winds were week. For about 30 seconds, visibility dropped from ~1 mile or so to 0, with wind blown cloud with an upward motion rushing by the building.  Then on the other end, just as quickly, the visibility lifted, and a slowly swirling fog could be seen receding away to the north, again, with a clear edge to the cloud.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC021-023-025-151930-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0133.140715T1830Z-140715T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
CENTRAL MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR YARDVILLE-GROVEVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE
INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALLENTOWN AROUND 235 PM EDT...
WINDSOR AND EDINBURG AROUND 245 PM EDT...
HIGHTSTOWN AND ROOSEVELT AROUND 255 PM EDT...
CLEARBROOK PARK AND MANALAPAN AROUND 310 PM EDT...
DAYTON AROUND 315 PM EDT...
JAMESBURG AROUND 320 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 7463 4018 7469 4018 7472 4024 7480
4053 7440 4032 7412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 232DEG 17KT 4019 7465

$

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC005-025-029-151930-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0132.140715T1829Z-140715T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR MEDFORD LAKES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MEDFORD AND TABERNACLE AROUND 240 PM EDT...
LEISURETOWNE AND LUMBERTON AROUND 245 PM EDT...
MOUNT HOLLY AROUND 250 PM EDT...
PEMBERTON AROUND 255 PM EDT...
JOBSTOWN AROUND 300 PM EDT...
PRESIDENTIAL LAKES AND WRIGHTSTOWN AROUND 305 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

 

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Some sort of weak spout or something just came through lower Manhattan.

 

My office is at the Battery, facing southwest on the 38th floor.  All of a sudden, there was a slight increase in wind accompanied by cloud/fog, with a clearly deliniated boundary and a change in direction in wind. It was very loose and winds were week. For about 30 seconds, visibility dropped from ~1 mile or so to 0, with wind blown cloud with an upward motion rushing by the building.  Then on the other end, just as quickly, the visibility lifted, and a slowly swirling fog could be seen receding away to the north, again, with a clear edge to the cloud.

Could have been a low wall cloud at that height.

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