IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 That is actually incorrect, the watch also includes Middlesex County.Middlesex isn't really east of Morris, it's south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Middlesex isn't really east of Morris, it's south. that line might not even make it to most of middlesex county by 11 pm http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I guess we shall see what happens...the last one was suppose to break up and we ended up with 50mph winds. Lots of trees down from the gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 well if that is to verify they either have to extend the time of the watch or forgetaboutit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I guess we shall see what happens...the last one was suppose to break up and we ended up with 50mph winds. Lots of trees down from the gusts i don't think this one has the same velocity winds the other one had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the big question now is wil the Yankees/Baltimore game in Baltimore become an official game before the line makes it there - bet YanksFan is sweating this one out since his team is losing lol http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the big question now is wil the Yankees/Baltimore game in Baltimore become an official game before the line makes it there - bet YanksFan is sweating this one out since his team is losing lol http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Should be in and out fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Who cares Yankees are losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the line is moving through hunterton county now and the severe warnings are not being extended east http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 ok the severe has been extended through morris and northern somerset and hunterton http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Visible lightning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 hope you guys don't mind if I interupt your sports talk that doesn't include any weather references - BUT the watch has been extended till midnight http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus61.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Downpour and some wind...not much thunder or lightning so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 No wind, some nasty lighting, not much thunder and brief downpour. A little underwhelming. Looks like it's starting to fall apart. Heavy rain looks like a good bet though for at least an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 No wind, some nasty lighting, not much thunder and brief downpour. A little underwhelming. Looks like it's starting to fall apart. Heavy rain looks like a good bet though for at least an hour or two. No more warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks interesting Monday midday/afternoon from N NJ into the lower Hudson Valley. Some sort of boundary draped across the area and 40 knots of shear. NAM actually has 120+ degrees of directional shear in the lowest 1km from CDW-HPN. Maybe a setup somewhat similar to last July (1st?) when there were scattered tor reports from N NJ into CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Should be in and out fairly quickly you busted on that one pal - the line was moving so slow the game never got past the 5th in Baltimore last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Think we get some decent severe storms even down to the coast today and tommorow. Primary threat besides torrential rains is winds and possible spinups with these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 you busted on that one pal - the line was moving so slow the game never got past the 5th in Baltimore last night Yeah it looked pretty weak. Even the announcers said they were told 30 minutes at most. Gotta love mlb..4 1/2 innings can be an official game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 6z NAM and GFS still forms a boundary or low over the area, that causes the low-level winds to back to SE. Hodographs indicate an isolated tornado threat highest over NNJ and LHV, with more CAPE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The models are coming around to the idea that the biggest flood threat is probably just away from the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 These are the factors going against much severe weather today:: 1. Without much cap, we more convective debris or showers/storms forming early.2. Poor mid-level lapse rates and high freezing levels don't support large hail. 3. S-SE winds keeping coastal areas more stable. As typical around here, we may not know, if how favorable conditions become, until a few hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Cell just quickly popped up NW of Trenton on the PA/NJ border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 These are the factors going against much severe weather today:: 1. Without much cap, we more convective debris or showers/storms forming early. 2. Poor mid-level lapse rates and high freezing levels don't support large hail. 3. S-SE winds keeping coastal areas more stable. As typical around here, we may not know, if how favorable conditions become, until a few hours before the event. I've always felt that the coverage of storms today and tomorrow would be too numerous to support much severe weather but the models do indicate modest shear and CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks to get interesting after 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks to get interesting after 2pm. Now THAT is one hell of a bowed squall line coming through around 5 PM! That would be a sight to see for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This looks pretty severe, nice bowing segment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This looks pretty severe, nice bowing segment hrrr_ref_nyc_7.png One thing of concern is the "other" convection firing out ahead of the main squall line taking away some punch for the main show. Severe days lately not even close to the coast have had this problem. Ideally we want maximum sun with no convective debris to prohibit these storms from reaching and maintaining they're maximum potential all the way to coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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