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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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I guess we shall see what happens...the last one was suppose to break up and we ended up with 50mph winds. Lots of trees down from the gusts

i don't think this one has the same velocity winds the other one had

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Should be in and out fairly quickly

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Looks interesting Monday midday/afternoon from N NJ into the lower Hudson Valley. Some sort of boundary draped across the area and 40 knots of shear. NAM actually has 120+ degrees of directional shear in the lowest 1km from CDW-HPN. Maybe a setup somewhat similar to last July (1st?) when there were scattered tor reports from N NJ into CT?

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These are the factors going against much severe weather today::

 

1. Without much cap, we more convective debris or showers/storms forming early.
2. Poor mid-level lapse rates and high freezing levels don't support large hail.

3. S-SE winds keeping coastal areas more stable.

 

As typical around here, we may not know, if how favorable conditions become, until a few hours before the event.

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These are the factors going against much severe weather today::

 

1. Without much cap, we more convective debris or showers/storms forming early.

2. Poor mid-level lapse rates and high freezing levels don't support large hail.

3. S-SE winds keeping coastal areas more stable.

 

As typical around here, we may not know, if how favorable conditions become, until a few hours before the event.

I've always felt that the coverage of storms today and tomorrow would be too numerous to support much severe weather but the models do indicate modest shear and CAPE.

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This looks pretty severe, nice bowing segment

hrrr_ref_nyc_7.png

One thing of concern is the "other" convection firing out ahead of the main squall line taking away some punch for the main show. Severe days lately not even close to the coast have had this problem. Ideally we want maximum sun with no convective debris to prohibit these storms from reaching and maintaining they're maximum potential all the way to coastal areas

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