ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Many models, including the euro, bullseye the NYC area today. Latest RAP as well. That's what you want to see as you approach a convective event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE. .....JOY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The 12z NAM is developing a wave of low pressure near Baltimore, if legit, it will really aid in the turning of winds. It has a spoke of vorticy riding the NJ coast today and a spike in the LLJ that it just slightly displaced to the east of us. Honestly, I'm a little concerned. If we can realize these higher CAPE values by early afternoon we might get red boxed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun breaking out in jersey city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Some discrete development out ahead of the main line is certainly possible today. The HRRR has been hinting at this for a few runs in a row. Any of these could briefly spin up given the good shear values in place. It's not too often that we get this setup in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In the box . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 No sign of any sunlight yet. Heavy overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun is out in Lower Man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The sun is out here now. In any event, the 12z NAM looks "wet". Yeah but seems to have the heaviest after 8pm thru early morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This should be messy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 No sign of any sunlight yet. Heavy overcast Bigger breaks in clouds pushing NE from DE/SNJ. Should add some fuel for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well the 12z 4k NAM is enthused. It does want to weaken the line as it comes east but I don't think that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Very heavy rain yesterday. Flash flooding was horrible in the urban areas..this has been a great year for storms in my area. Have not seen this much in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Still cloudy out here. Anyone who gets in a cell out ahead of the main line watch out. Could see some serious micro bursts! Maybe not as bad as the forest hills queens one a few years ago but bad enough to send some trees flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 breaks of sun in warren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This is about as high as our dew points can go around here. Generally widespread 74-77F dews. That type of airmass invites convection when you have a strong forcing mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Very heavy rain yesterday. Flash flooding was horrible in the urban areas..this has been a great year for storms in my area. Have not seen this much in years Definitely. Just need one to combine all the elements. We got the damaging winds last week but with no rain or lightning, the week before incredible rain/lightning storms..and alot of run of the mill thunderstorms which are still cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This is about as high as our dew points can go around here. Generally widespread 74-77F dews. That type of airmass invites convection when you have a strong forcing mechanism. Seriously..even an 81 on there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This is about as high as our dew points can go around here. Generally widespread 74-77F dews. That type of airmass invites convection when you have a strong forcing mechanism. think once the sun comes out even in my area it will not be long before we start to see some convection and strong convection at that fire up. if there was ever a red box day today IS the day, even for my area for those discreet cells out ahead of the main line my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not enthused on severe threat. There's not enough fuel to add to the fire unless we magically clear out for a couple hours. It'll be mostly a heavy rain threat like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In North Bergen right now. Total sunshine and extremely humid. You can literally feel how unstable things are already. Would definitely watch the potential for supercells to initiate ahead of the line later on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 CIN is gone and SBCAPE is surging. Already > 1500 J/KG almost area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I have to say these are some of the more impressive shear profiles that I've seen in awhile coupled with decent instability. Might surprise some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not enthused on severe threat. There's not enough fuel to add to the fire unless we magically clear out for a couple hours. It'll be mostly a heavy rain threat like yesterday. this is totally false, SVR factors are already skyrocketing around the area, a few hours of sun will percolate the atmosphere extremely fast and the rest will be history my friend. exciting to say the least, coming from me in the convection black hole as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not enthused on severe threat. There's not enough fuel to add to the fire unless we magically clear out for a couple hours. It'll be mostly a heavy rain threat like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I have to say these are some of the more impressive shear profiles that I've seen in awhile coupled with decent instability. Might surprise some folks. we are already leaps and bounds ahead of the game compared to yesterday when the best bulk shear was west of us and never really had very good backing winds either. even LI has a very good shot at some discreet cell action before the mainline this afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE. .....JOY once again trees and power outages - how many storms do we have to go through before the power companies and towns realize it would be less expensive in the long run to make an effort to cut all trees near the lines down or below the power line ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I have to say these are some of the more impressive shear profiles that I've seen in awhile coupled with decent instability. Might surprise some folks. Shear already looks a time and a half better than it did at any point yesterday. Definitely agree with the wet-microburst potential later on. Might even see the SPC go hatched on the wind threat some time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Shear already looks a time and a half better than it did at any point yesterday. Definitely agree with the wet-microburst potential later on. Might even see the SPC go hatched on the wind threat some time today. Looking great all the way down right now. Patiently awaiting this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Shear already looks a time and a half better than it did at any point yesterday. Definitely agree with the wet-microburst potential later on. Might even see the SPC go hatched on the wind threat some time today. this will only expand east as well. clearing for me should commence fast for me before 12, satellite imagery has clearing heading towards me already. TOR values are pretty good as well Red boxes should be issued today, widespread tornadoes? no, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some spinups throughout the tri state area today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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