Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 thus far I think parameters look better than yesterday throughout our area. today was suppose to be the best SVR day so we will see what the HRRR/HiRes NAM has to say later on. I'd expect more heavy rain thunder and lightning tonight and not much more. Hopefully no watch is issued since it seems to be the kiss of death lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'd expect more heavy rain thunder and lightning tonight and not much more. Hopefully no watch is issued since it seems to be the kiss of death lately. agree with you on that. past couple summers a heralded SVR outbreak resulted in sub par results, however when just scattered "stronger" storms were forecasted we had some better SVR days, go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 According to here: http://www.westportnow.com/index.php?/v2_5/comments/49479/ My town's fire station stated they recieved 2.72 inches yesterday. Sure looked like with with the flooding that occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The 10z HRRR is pretty meh for this area with southwestern New England capitalizing. A narrow area of high CAPE develops right along the Hudson and then as activity slides north early afternoon the CAPE goes with it. Hopefully it's just a fluke run as the 09z run was a lot better. HRRR yesterday was not accurate - had the storms moving in too early between 3 and 5 so don't fully depend on that to make a forecast - today is another nowcasting day with the late afternoon till later tonight being the favored time period IMO - another problem might be all the ingredients working together to get severe at first BUT unlike yesterday there should be a strong squall line developing to our west over PA and moving right through this evening -pre-frontal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 HRRR yesterday was not accurate - had the storms moving in too early between 3 and 5 so don't fully depend on that to make a forecast - today is another nowcasting day with the late afternoon till later tonight being the favored time period IMO - another problem might be all the ingredients working together to get severe at first BUT unlike yesterday there should be a strong squall line developing to our west over PA and moving right through this evening -pre-frontal.... this is what should benefit us, a bowing squall line would be a better chance of getting more SVR into NYC-proper on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 HRRR yesterday was not accurate - had the storms moving in too early between 3 and 5 so don't fully depend on that to make a forecast - today is another nowcasting day with the late afternoon till later tonight being the favored time period IMO - another problem might be all the ingredients working together to get severe at first BUT unlike yesterday there should be a strong squall line developing to our west over PA and moving right through this evening -pre-frontal.... The HRRR has a nice quall line, MCS like feature but a majority of it goes to the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 30% wind added from NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not a bad sounding this morning from OKX, certainly a good amount of MUCAPE and a forecast of > 2000 J/KG SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The HRRR has a nice quall line, MCS like feature but a majority of it goes to the LHV. hrrr_ref_neng_9.png that cellular structure over NYC sure look interesting in front of the squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The HRRR has a nice quall line, MCS like feature but a majority of it goes to the LHV. hrrr_ref_neng_9.png ok - lets use this run as a reference and compare it to what the radar actually looks like at 3 PM today - my initial thoughts are that the model is once again rushing things along too fast with that squall line - but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 ok - lets use this run as a reference and compare it to what the radar actually looks like at 3 PM today - my initial thoughts are that the model is once again rushing things along too fast with that squall line - but we will see think that's fair but I do think today we have some more favorable parameters despite being socked in with clouds currently. the shear looks better today as well around our area thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 As Smokeater noted All others stayed the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun as been poking in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 As Smokeater noted All others stayed the same just outside that 30% damn it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 WPC still likes I-95 for heavy rainfall today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 A 2/5/30? Yesterday was 2/5/15. Suprised they think today is a greater wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 ok - lets use this run as a reference and compare it to what the radar actually looks like at 3 PM today - my initial thoughts are that the model is once again rushing things along too fast with that squall line - but we will see I do enjoy hourly updates, but its hard to take a model serious that thinks if its less than 0C at 850mb its gonna snow all the way down. Dumb thing produces some funny graphics in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Upton going with as much as 2" additional rainfall today through tommorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I do enjoy hourly updates, but its hard to take a model serious that thinks if its less than 0C at 850mb its gonna snow all the way down. Dumb thing produces some funny graphics in the winter. That model is much more useful for convection over snow. Many times this year already it has schooled the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That model is much more useful for convection over snow. Many times this year already it has schooled the globals. of course since it has a 3km grid meshed over a 13km grid...convection is a tough one to pinpoint though anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 of course since it has a 3km grid meshed over a 13km grid...convection is a tough one to pinpoint though anyway Yeah, and while it didn't do that great of a job yesterday it did sniff out the QPF bullseye over Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not a bad sounding this morning from OKX, certainly a good amount of MUCAPE and a forecast of > 2000 J/KG SBCAPE. Unlike yesterday, we have more cap and mid-level lapse rates aren't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wow the SWS just issued down here... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151530- NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX- WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON... WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK... OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE... POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...SWATHS OF HIGH IMPACT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING... THE PRIMARY LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN NEAR 90 DEGREE HEAT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM AND THEN MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER DAMAGE. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR WOULD PROMOTE POCKETS OF RENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY ROLL THROUGH AN AREA FOR 2 HOURS AND PRODUCE 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS. THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO TRENTON...PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE TRAVEL DELAYS IN SOME AREAS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE ROAD CLOSURES. POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE. THE RISK FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM. HAVE YOUR SAFETY PLAN IN MIND WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Weathergun, do you think today has a better chance of svr weather? I live in SEPA, but still under the 2 TOR and 30 wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151530-NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014...SWATHS OF HIGH IMPACT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODINGEXPECTED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING...THE PRIMARY LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN NEAR90 DEGREE HEAT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM ANDTHEN MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIALFOR MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER DAMAGE.RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR WOULD PROMOTE POCKETS OFRENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIALFOR MORE EXTENSIVE SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAN WHAT OCCURREDYESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY ROLL THROUGH AN AREAFOR 2 HOURS AND PRODUCE 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEINTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO TRENTON...PHILADELPHIAAND WILMINGTON INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUSTHUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE TRAVEL DELAYS INSOME AREAS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE ROAD CLOSURES.POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE.THE RISK FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM.HAVE YOUR SAFETY PLAN IN MIND WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wow the SWS just issued down here... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151530- NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX- WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON... WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK... OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE... POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...SWATHS OF HIGH IMPACT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING... THE PRIMARY LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN NEAR 90 DEGREE HEAT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM AND THEN MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER DAMAGE. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR WOULD PROMOTE POCKETS OF RENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY ROLL THROUGH AN AREA FOR 2 HOURS AND PRODUCE 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS. THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO TRENTON...PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE TRAVEL DELAYS IN SOME AREAS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE ROAD CLOSURES. POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE. THE RISK FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM. HAVE YOUR SAFETY PLAN IN MIND WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ Some fairly strong wording that is for sure smokeeater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thats all of Mt. Hollys CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Take it FWIW, but 11z HRRR sig tor values over the 1 threshold from C NJ right on up into CT. Spikes over 2 near NYC metro, which is at least a little bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Weathergun, do you think today has a better chance of svr weather? I live in SEPA, but still under the 2 TOR and 30 wind. If we get more sun, yes. We would destabilize faster underneath the cap. Before enough forcing arrives to overcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The sun is out here now. In any event, the 12z NAM looks "wet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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