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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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Got 1.17" today in Bridgewater, making for a total of 2.32" since 11 pm last night. Nothing earth-shattering here so far, but still enough to cause some ponding of water on roads, and a part of 202 was apparently briefly closed. Convection took a little longer than expected to develop with the cloudcover, and by the time the main cluster arrived the sun had gone down and instability had decreased. And of course some areas got a lot "luckier" than others. In any event, still have all of tomorrow and part of Wednesday to get through as well...

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We have a weak cap in place this morning that should easily be broken. In any event MUCAPE looks good and so does the effective bulk shear, especially the further northwest you travel.

 

mucp.gif?1405427924308

 

eshr.gif?1405428019324

 

thus far I think parameters look better than yesterday throughout our area. today was suppose to be the best SVR day so we will see what the HRRR/HiRes NAM has to say later on.

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