REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:07 PM, Rtd208 said: Kinda surprised the SPC hasn't gone with a watch yet, I would think one will be issued within the hour. PDS Severe thunderstorm watch? To cover possibilities of tornado possibilities and of signifigant wind damage maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:09 PM, TWCCraig said: 100% overcast 80/75 Feel that seabreeze here too as well. Its certainly not that warm in my opinion. REALLY jealous of those from NYC on west who have actually seen sun today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:09 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Pretty good cell already moving into western Somerset county Looking at velocities, no wind and also not much lightning. Just some rain for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Im in somerville and the storm is passing to the north no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:11 PM, REDMK6GLI said: Feel that seabreeze here too as well. Its certainly not that warm in my opinion. REALLY jealous of those from NYC on west who have actually seen sun today It feels like an absolute sauna here today and I don't feel like having to commute through bad thunderstorms on my way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:10 PM, REDMK6GLI said: PDS Severe thunderstorm watch? To cover possibilities of tornado possibilities and of signifigant wind damage maybe? Possible but not likely, at least in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:11 PM, REDMK6GLI said: Feel that seabreeze here too as well. Its certainly not that warm in my opinion. REALLY jealous of those from NYC on west who have actually seen sun today I am in NE Queens at work in Bayside and have had no to very little sunshine so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The HRRR had these cells depicted nicely. Radar is exploding east of Trenton now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:14 PM, Rtd208 said: Possible but not likely, at least in my opinion. I would so it wouldn't require a red box to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:14 PM, IsentropicLift said: The HRRR had these cells depicted nicely. Radar is exploding east of Trenton now. Next HRRR should be as good or even better, looking at the 16z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watch and see how far east these cells make it. That will give you a pretty good idea as to how strong the winds are out of the south versus out of the west. The HRRR had these staying from NYC and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:14 PM, IsentropicLift said: The HRRR had these cells depicted nicely. Radar is exploding east of Trenton now. Yea the sun is out west of Philly now...thats where our line should start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 As far as PDS severe thunderstorm watch boxes go, they are very rare and would probably be reserved in cases where an imminent derecheo was approaching or highly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:17 PM, user13 said: Yea the sun is out west of Philly now...thats where our line should start RAP and HRRR have the severe line after 5pm. The stuff now is just a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The fact that SPC stayed 2/30/5 tell you that we'll have a run of the mil watch box when the time comes with perhaps some high wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:17 PM, IsentropicLift said: As far as PDS severe thunderstorm watch boxes go, they are very rare and would probably be reserved in cases where an imminent derecheo was approaching or highly likely. I know a PDS is highly strong language but I just threw it out to cover possibilities of tornadoes today In and around NYC. im not firmiliar with how the NWS/SPC goes along with issuing the proper watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:17 PM, IsentropicLift said: As far as PDS severe thunderstorm watch boxes go, they are very rare and would probably be reserved in cases where an imminent derecheo was approaching or highly likely. Correct. There is 0% chance of one being issued for this. It may be a widespread severe day but it is no where close to PDS watch standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:18 PM, ag3 said: RAP and HRRR have the severe line after 5pm. The stuff now is just a bonus. Yea I just hope we can get the clouds out of the way after they pass. The cell moving into SI looks like it is getting a little more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:18 PM, IsentropicLift said: The fact that SPC stayed 2/30/5 tell you that we'll have a run of the mil watch box when the time comes with perhaps some high wind probs. wouldn't these storms in front of the main line later this afternoon hurt it? I've seen it happen often in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:19 PM, The Iceman said: Correct. There is 0% chance of one being issued for this. It may be a widespread severe day but it is no where close to PDS watch standards. IT WAS AN OPINION! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:20 PM, REDMK6GLI said: wouldn't these storms in front of the main line later this afternoon hurt it? I've seen it happen often in the past. According to the RAP/HRRR, it doesn't hurt it as they both have been very persistent with showing the main/severe line for 5pm-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:19 PM, REDMK6GLI said: I know a PDS is highly strong language but I just threw it out to cover possibilities of tornadoes today In and around NYC. im not firmiliar with how the NWS/SPC goes along with issuing the proper watches If they thought tornados were that likely they would go red box. Based on the latest probs I hightly doubt that will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:15 PM, REDMK6GLI said: I would so it wouldn't require a red box to be issued. Tornadoes are covered under normal tstorm watch boxes. And if that was a big risk it would be a red box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:20 PM, REDMK6GLI said: wouldn't these storms in front of the main line later this afternoon hurt it? I've seen it happen often in the past. Negative, the HRRR is showing that these blow through quickly and get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:21 PM, ag3 said: According to the RAP/HRRR, it doesn't hurt it as they both have been very persistent with showing the main/severe line for 5pm-8pm. just referencing what has happened in the past with crapvection in front a squall line sapping energy from the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:22 PM, IsentropicLift said: Negative, the HRRR is showing that these blow through quickly and get out of the way. thanks for the information, in that case it should aid the clearing then once they blow through the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Starting to hear some thunder, freehold Nj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 5:22 PM, REDMK6GLI said: just referencing what has happened in the past with crapvection in front a squall line sapping energy from the main show Look at satellite though. Behind this initial line, there is plenty of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I just want to see the Euro hold serve and I'll be happy. The GGEM was a little east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The 12z RGEM focuses on NJ. Seems to be a concencus forming now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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