danstorm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:22 PM, DiehardFF said: Wow. Upper bucks gets 2". Central 1" and Lower 3". How do the sig values look? Keep in mind that models and summertime QPF oftentimes don't mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The 12z GFS is really wet for tomorrow developing yet another low right along the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:30 PM, danstorm said: Keep in mind that models and summertime QPF oftentimes don't mix. While nobody is going to take the 6.5" bullseye verbatim the HRRR probably will have the best handle on where the heaviest amounts fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:32 PM, IsentropicLift said: The 12z GFS is really wet for tomorrow developing yet another low right along the NJ coast. best fireworks show in NJ is tomorrow 11pm in Berkeley heights....better not ruin my fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:33 PM, friedmators said: best fireworks show in NJ is tomorrow 11pm in Berkeley heights....better not ruin my fun Fireworks at 11PM on a Wednesday night? Anyway it looks to taper off after 18z but there could still be some showers around. My main concern about tomrrow is that if the front slows down by another 6 hours or so it could be another drencher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 After some breaks of blue earlier we're completely socked into clouds again here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:36 PM, IsentropicLift said: After some breaks of blue earlier we're completely socked into clouds again here in Ramsey. Looks like an incoming clearing sky before the main show still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 We seem to be under the perfect combination of moderate shear and moderate SBCAPE. This is indicaed by ideal Bulk Richardson values. Often times we end up with high shear and low CAPE or low shear and high CAPE. Not the case today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Anyone notice that the Mt. Holly 0930 SWS seems to have been taken down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:33 PM, friedmators said: best fireworks show in NJ is tomorrow 11pm in Berkeley heights....better not ruin my fun Nothing beats the ones at liberty state park on the Fourth of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:43 PM, mikemost said: Anyone notice that the Mt. Holly 0930 SWS seems to have been taken down?They don't leave them up all day. Not unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:43 PM, mikemost said: Anyone notice that the Mt. Holly 0930 SWS seems to have been taken down? It was only in effect until 11:30AM. It was just a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:45 PM, SmokeEater said: They don't leave them up all day. Not unusual. True - Though given the nature of the wording indicating that those conditions could arrive later today, I figured they'd leave it up, or add it into the HWO. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:45 PM, seanick said: Nothing beats the ones at liberty state park on the Fourth of July. My personal favorites are the ones Harrahs launches in AC. We usually park on Rt. 30 on the Absecon border and watch them from across the bay. Kind of cool because you're usually too far away to hear them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:46 PM, mikemost said: True - Though given the nature of the wording indicating that those conditions could arrive later today, I figured they'd leave it up, or add it into the HWO. No big deal. I'm sure that we'll be under a watch by early afternoon and that should take care of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:30 PM, danstorm said: Keep in mind that models and summertime QPF oftentimes don't mix. O ya, I certainly understand that. Just interesting in the difference of QPF from PA - NJ to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:46 PM, mikemost said: True - Though given the nature of the wording indicating that those conditions could arrive later today, I figured they'd leave it up, or add it into the HWO. No big deal.The headline about swaths of damaging storms is in the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:36 PM, IsentropicLift said: Fireworks at 11PM on a Wednesday night? Anyway it looks to taper off after 18z but there could still be some showers around. My main concern about tomrrow is that if the front slows down by another 6 hours or so it could be another drencher. i just read they are rain or shine so no worries...mt carmel...they are amazing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:49 PM, friedmators said: i just read they are rain or shine so no worries...mt carmel...they are amazing..They're nuts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:50 PM, SmokeEater said: They're nuts lol. its put on by garden state fireworks and always incorporates new and unique features. has shells and effects not seen in mainstream shows...the beer garden also helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:51 PM, friedmators said: its put on by garden state fireworks and always incorporates new and unique features. has shells and effects not seen in mainstream shows...the beer garden also helps I'm sure the fireworks with lightning in the background will make for some dramatic photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun should be on the way for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:49 PM, SmokeEater said: The headline about swaths of damaging storms is in the HWO. Somehow missed that... doh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Eh, there are days where you look at the models and the hairs on your neck stand up a little, today isn't one of those, but it's close. Hearing some chatter that they are going 30% hatched next update on the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 More and more sun peeking out in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:52 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'm sure the fireworks with lightning in the background will make for some dramatic photos. It would but highly doubt there will be any lightning tomorrow at 11am let alone 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Incoming clearing skies as noted earlier for N NJ, NYC, etc. Central and Southern Jersey already clearing. Awaiting next SPC probs outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 MUCAPE's are now pushing 3000 J/KG in C/SNJ with LI's of < -4 and low level lapse rates 6.5-7.0 C/KM. Those ripe thermodynamic parameters juxtaposed with the arrival of 45+ knots of bulk effective shear over the next couple hours should mean fairly explosive convective development near I-95, likely by 2-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Mostly sunny and 85/77 here. Incredibly tropical. I've never been to the Amazon but this is as close as I'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:57 PM, Plfdwxdude said: It would but highly doubt there will be any lightning tomorrow at 11am let alone 11pm It might happen if the GFS verifies. Also it's 11PM not AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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