friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:33 PM, SnoSki14 said: I'm not enthused on severe threat. There's not enough fuel to add to the fire unless we magically clear out for a couple hours. It'll be mostly a heavy rain threat like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:43 PM, REDMK6GLI said: this will only expand east as well. clearing for me should commence fast for me before 12, satellite imagery has clearing heading towards me already. TOR values are pretty good as well TOR values actually popping up quite alarming on some model runs. Definitely a better day for severe wx in terms of parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:44 PM, friedmators said: saved for laughs, no matter what happens today you sir gave me a great laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:41 PM, Superstorm93 said: Shear already looks a time and a half better than it did at any point yesterday. Definitely agree with the wet-microburst potential later on. Might even see the SPC go hatched on the wind threat some time today. I have reason to believe that the cell which crossed from western Passaic County, across extreme northern Bergan and then into Rockland County might have been a wet microburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 HRRR has storms poppping everywhere ahead of the main line around 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:45 PM, IsentropicLift said: I have reason to believe that the cell which crossed from western Passaic County, across extreme northern Bergan and then into Rockland County might have been a wet microburst. gf didn't take pics but said they're were numerous trees down and power out. from what it sounded like it was a microburst due to all debris being shunted in one direction in her development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Damn fog just rolled in here. I have to assume when the clearing gets here it will burn off. I remember the weather on the day of the rockaway water spout/tornado a couple years ago being very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 FYI... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (NO TORNADO) IN BURLINGTON COUNTYYESTERDAY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TRACKED ACROSS BURLINGTON COUNTY NEW JERSEY FROMNEAR MEDFORD TO SOUTHAMPTON BETWEEN 8:15 AND 8:30 PM LAST NIGHTJULY 14TH. SCATTERED FALLEN TREES AND BRANCHES, POWER LINES, AND ADISPLACED IRRIGATION PIPE WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHAMPTON AREA.THIS DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS. EYEWITNESS REPORTSDID NOT INDICATE A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.THE NWS THANKS BURLINGTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNELWHO HELPED WITH TODAY/S DAMAGE SURVEY AND THE EYEWITNESSES WH0TALKED WITH US ALONG THE WAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Mostly cloudy but with some peeks of sun here in Midtown. It's humid enough outside that we should qualify as a rainforest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:52 PM, jm1220 said: Mostly cloudy but with some peeks of sun here in Midtown. It's humid enough outside that we should qualify as a rainforest. im socked in with low clouds here but according to visible satellite I should start seeing a good amount of sun in an hour. but your right the humidity, dew points outside are tropical to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Feels like I am living in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This looks fairly similar to what occured last night around 6-7PM around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:57 PM, IsentropicLift said: This looks fairly similar to what occured last night around 6-7PM around here hrrr_ref_neng_9.png today though looks FAR more potent. I know once the sun comes out here the atmosphere is going destabilize fast! I am excited for this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 We have all of the ingredients in place, at least for northeast standards. Probably better off at this point to just let things play out as they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Clearing taking place from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 One thing I think you can take to the bank is the flash flooding threat. The latest HRRR is an absolute dumpage right over the urbanized areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:04 PM, IsentropicLift said: One thing I think you can take to the bank is the flash flooding threat. The latest HRRR is an absolute dumpage right over the urbanized areas. nice little 5.0 for nyc and still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:08 PM, friedmators said: nice little 5.0 for nyc and still raining For selfish reasons I hope it's about 25 miles too far southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 2:58 PM, REDMK6GLI said: today though looks FAR more potent. I know once the sun comes out here the atmosphere is going destabilize fast! I am excited for this afternoon Its best to never get your hopes up too much lol. If it happens it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yanks, can you post HRRR graphics? Sim Radar and Precip Amounts(SEPA) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The rivers are a bit higher today after the dumping the last two nights. Especially over interior northeastern NJ. If someone picks up 3-5" there could be some main stem river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:10 PM, IsentropicLift said: For selfish reasons I hope it's about 25 miles too far southeast Agreed you can have all the mosquitoes and weeds that go along with half a foot of rain. On a serious note 11AM dewpoint roundup NYC: 73 EWR: 74 LGA: 71 JFK: 70 New Brunswick: 74 BLM: 73 TTN: 75 PHL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:14 PM, DiehardFF said: Yanks, can you post HRRR graphics? Sim Radar and Precip Amounts(SEPA) ? HRRR followes the RAP. Here is the link to the RAP. Hit "Latest" and region "Quebec" every hour and you get the latest run. Currently 14z or 10am. It continues to bullseye the NYC area, btw. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:14 PM, DiehardFF said: Yanks, can you post HRRR graphics? Sim Radar and Precip Amounts(SEPA) ? Here is the total precip through hr 13. southeast PA gets skipped over a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:16 PM, ag3 said: HRRR followes the RAP. Here is the link to the RAP. Hit "Latest" and region "Quebec" every hour and you get the latest run. Currently 14z or 10am. It continues to bullseye the NYC area, btw. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=rap Thanks buddy. I don't have wxbell anymore, so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:14 PM, SACRUS said: Agreed you can have all the mosquitoes and weeds that go along with half a foot of rain. On a serious note 11AM dewpoint roundup NYC: 73 EWR: 74 LGA: 71 JFK: 70 New Brunswick: 74 BLM: 73 TTN: 75 PHL: The humidity is absolutely atrocious outside-we're primed to have tons of rain when the right dynamics for it arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Keep in mind more rain falls after this as this is only through 11PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:17 PM, IsentropicLift said: Here is the total precip through hr 13. southeast PA gets skipped over a bit. hrrr_t_precip_harrisburg_14.png Wow. Upper bucks gets 2". Central 1" and Lower 3". How do the sig values look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 On 7/15/2014 at 3:21 PM, IsentropicLift said: Keep in mind more rain falls after this as this is only through 11PM. hrrr_t_precip_nyc_15.png 14z HRRR should be similar, looking at the 14z RAP. HRRR always follows the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The 12z GFS looks good. All systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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