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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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  On 7/15/2014 at 1:48 AM, doncat said:

2.05" here since about 11:30 last night.

 

 

Absolutely demolished here. Drove from Long Branch and back the past few hours and almost had to pull over.

 

2.24" of much needed rain. Impressive lightning as well.

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  On 7/15/2014 at 1:30 AM, IsentropicLift said:

21z SREF looks really good for NJ tomorrow. Hopefully a convection train sets up as modeled.

How does tomorrow look for western long island? ?

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Got 1.17" today in Bridgewater, making for a total of 2.32" since 11 pm last night. Nothing earth-shattering here so far, but still enough to cause some ponding of water on roads, and a part of 202 was apparently briefly closed. Convection took a little longer than expected to develop with the cloudcover, and by the time the main cluster arrived the sun had gone down and instability had decreased. And of course some areas got a lot "luckier" than others. In any event, still have all of tomorrow and part of Wednesday to get through as well...

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  On 7/15/2014 at 11:14 AM, REDMK6GLI said:

That line is W.NY moving southeast looks pretty good at the moment. Would that impact the area later on or will that weaken as the morning progresses?

Our activity for later should come from the southwest. That activity is moving towards New England.

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  On 7/15/2014 at 12:40 PM, IsentropicLift said:

We have a weak cap in place this morning that should easily be broken. In any event MUCAPE looks good and so does the effective bulk shear, especially the further northwest you travel.

 

mucp.gif?1405427924308

 

eshr.gif?1405428019324

 

thus far I think parameters look better than yesterday throughout our area. today was suppose to be the best SVR day so we will see what the HRRR/HiRes NAM has to say later on.

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