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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15

Mikehobbyst

By Mikehobbyst,
in New York City Metro

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
Posted

Looking at Monday:

Looks like slight risk average of models

cape: 1500

LI: -3

Shear: 35 knts

Supercell: 10-15 composite

 

SPC like guess

SLGT

Wind 15% - Isolated Super cells or bowing line segments

Hail 15%

Tor 5%

 

 

Looking at Tuesday:

Looks like moderate risk average of models

cape: 2000

LI: -6

Shear: 40 knts

Supercell: 30 composite

 

SPC like guess

MOD

Wind 45% - Hatched for 65 knot winds - Super cells evolve into Bow Echo or large scale Derecho Squall line. Could be like Labor day '98 serious t'storm event....

Hail 15%

Tor 10%

 

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Mikehobbyist we had this kind of risk last year, i believe a 45% hatched risk and we got squat even around NYC. Once you get east of PA something signifigant like this materializing is going to be VERY tough. Only places that did decent last year were PA and upstate NY

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

SPC has us in 30% or greater risk on Tuesday:

 

post-187-0-36570800-1404987617_thumb.gif

DAY 6 /TUESDAY/ A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROMTHE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES AS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUMROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDPROFILES AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO BE INPLACE.
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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Anything is possible w/ weather, we'll see. The week of 7/20/14 maybe the first time in 20 years and one month of something significant. No choo-choo trains running on Long Island. That would be no joke if it happens.  No Cannon ball express to Hamptons. No train to see that expensive Broadway show. No train to get to work. #LIwouldgetscrewed #weneedchoochoo #noLIRRstrike

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Ill give you that mike would be the first time any notable storms occured on LI worth noting since 98' derecho. I mean nassau has had some isolated severe cells like the microburst i experienced i think in 2010 while i was at manhasset king kullen. That location has hail almost every storm that hit!

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

We see likely see a squall line form to our west with some gusty winds with the amount shear and forcing alone by Tuesday. But the moist SW flow in the mid-levels, reduces our steep lapse rate potential for high-end severe weather event in this area.

ALWAYS have a fly in the ointment during these "big severe days". This is favoring NE more than us by far with more widespread severe storms. I will predict once again suffolk county will not be included in any possible tornado/severe thunderstorm watches monday and/or tuesday
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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

The PV intrusion is going to be really impressive. Nearly closed 500mb lows penetrating this far south have often produced tornadoes and nice squall lines in our area. One thing I would worry about is convective debris from all of the lift, as well as the southerly flow from the cooler ocean stabilizing the immediate coast. 

 

post-73-0-00481400-1405027950_thumb.gif

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Judging by right now, what day looks to be the worst in the Catskills as far as storms are concerned, Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday?

Tuesday, im expecting nothing here but some decent looking structures in the distance but you may very well be in the cross hairs in the catskills away from any seabreeze and/ or crapvection that screws the pooch in these setups quite often

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

This could go in either direction, but right now I'd have to bet against tornadoes (wouldn't rule out a few, but climo strongly argues against an outbreak) and more towards a wind and hail threat.

The SW flow aloft combined with a fairly unidirectional shear pattern favors severe wind. With such a vigorous trough a hail threat exists too and even the 12z Euro had pockets of stronger instability. Even if the low level wind fields were somehow able to back more, then you'd see a SE marine influence. Most of the notable tornado events in these parts saw a W to NW upper level flow.

The analog data via CIPS does show a decent hail/wind threat, but the tornado reports were so scattered that not even a 2% delineation was noted.

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
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Posted

SPC is south and west of the NE now for Monday. Tuesday is less confident.  This summer pattern, also forget about those 582 1000-500 mb heights and century mark.  Best we can get is 90's inland and 577 1000-500 mb heights.  Our best shot a maybe hitting 1000-500 "580" mark is the week of 7/20-7/25. That would be just lovely with possible LIRR strike.  I am sure we get 95-98 degree temps that week with no LIRR.  The severe crowding everywhere will be bad, like the densely packed Book of Mormon musical ticket lottery. 350-400 people packed in front of the theatre. "Hasa Diga" LIRR strike.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Monday has some potential, mainly the NW burbs. Models are in decent agreement with about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE coupled with 30kts bulk shear and locally backed low-level winds. I'd expect at least an isolated severe threat, with an elevated, although still low-end, tornado threat from northern NJ into the lower Hudson Valley.

For Tuesday, the shear pattern goes more unidirectional and we'll probably suffer from less instability as well given the timing of the cold front. If it were later in the season and SSTs were higher, it might be more interesting for LI. We'll see how it plays out.

Even late this afternoon I could see a rogue strong to marginally severe storm NW of the City, but that's a long shot.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted 




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361



   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK



   0606 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014



   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...N NJ



   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...



   VALID 132306Z - 140030Z



   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414



   CONTINUES.



   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS



   EVENING...BUT MAY SUFFICIENTLY LINGER FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW AHEAD OF



   A BULGING CLUSTER TRACKING E FROM CNTRL PA. PROBABILITY OF



   DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE BY 01Z IS 40 PERCENT.



   DISCUSSION...BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED



   OUTSIDE OF A BULGING QLCS CENTERED FROM LYCOMING TO CENTRE COUNTIES.



   30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL WLYS HAVE BEEN SAMPLED IN CCX VWP DATA IN THE



   WAKE OF THIS BULGING STRUCTURE...CONSISTENT WITH FORWARD SPEED



   AROUND 35 KT AND AIDING IN TREE DAMAGE REPORTS WITH A 30 KT GUST



   MEASURED AT KUNV. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG FARTHER SE



   PER AMDAR DATA INVOF PHL. GIVEN WEEK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND



   SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL...OVERALL LINE INTENSITY



   SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK. STILL...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS



   PROBABLE NEAR-TERM OVER E-CNTRL PA AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN



   ADDITIONAL SHORT-DURATION WW.



   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014



   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...



   LAT...LON   41217718 41447683 41527584 41277472 41037439 40737433



               40177454 40037472 39957541 40027650 40147725 40207768



               40457783 40817741 41217718 










post-187-0-21784800-1405293485_thumb.gif



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		REDMK6GLI
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


REDMK6GLI
			

			

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...N NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...

   VALID 132306Z - 140030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
   EVENING...BUT MAY SUFFICIENTLY LINGER FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW AHEAD OF
   A BULGING CLUSTER TRACKING E FROM CNTRL PA. PROBABILITY OF
   DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE BY 01Z IS 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED
   OUTSIDE OF A BULGING QLCS CENTERED FROM LYCOMING TO CENTRE COUNTIES.
   30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL WLYS HAVE BEEN SAMPLED IN CCX VWP DATA IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS BULGING STRUCTURE...CONSISTENT WITH FORWARD SPEED
   AROUND 35 KT AND AIDING IN TREE DAMAGE REPORTS WITH A 30 KT GUST
   MEASURED AT KUNV. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG FARTHER SE
   PER AMDAR DATA INVOF PHL. GIVEN WEEK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL...OVERALL LINE INTENSITY
   SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK. STILL...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS
   PROBABLE NEAR-TERM OVER E-CNTRL PA AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL SHORT-DURATION WW.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41217718 41447683 41527584 41277472 41037439 40737433
               40177454 40037472 39957541 40027650 40147725 40207768
               40457783 40817741 41217718 

This will be dead before it reaches NYC, tommorow and tuesday should be slightly better for more organized convection in and around NYC in my opinion.

			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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Isotherm
			

			

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Tonight's skew-t for NYC valid 06z off the 18z GFS indicates a strong CAP of > 3 and elevated CINH values of >100. Instability is meager.


 


I would probably anticipate a rapidly weakening line of T-storms upon its final approach into NYC. Some heavy rain with a few rumbles of thunder should occur but I don't believe the convection will be strong by the time it reaches NYC. Parameters are better for most of EPA and interior NJ, so I would expect a healthy line of convection if you live near the DE river or west of NYC longitude.


 


nvns5e.gif



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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IsentropicLift
			

			

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Just saying tommorow and especially tuesday will be better for more widespread storms. Today favored further inland areas, wouldnt be surprised to see some spinups next couple days either along with some wind damage reports as well
I'm your friend and even I'm sick of hearing about how SW Suffolk county is the screw zone for storms.

			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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Rtd208
			

			

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I'm your friend and even I'm sick of hearing about how SW Suffolk county is the screw zone for storms.


That is getting pretty old, fast. Maybe we should give the Long Island folks their own "thunderstorm screw thread" so this way they can whine to each other and the rest of us don't have to deal with it.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		Rjay
	

				
				
				
				
			

		

		

			

				


Rjay
			

			

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That is getting pretty old, fast. Maybe we should give the Long Island folks their own "thunderstorm screw thread" so this way they can whine to each other and the rest of us don't have to deal with it.


 And you will have to listen to us whine when we change to rain in the winter. Lol.



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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NEG NAO
			

			

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this line of showers and storms is moving at a snails pace and probably won't make it into the city till close to 11 and will be in a weakened state by then 


 


http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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Hence why the watch is only to Morris County.

			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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