Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Tomorrow looks mostly southeast. was hoping it would slow down but it doesn't seem to want to. We suck. Maybe we should just close my thread. Nothing but boring failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Maybe instead of calling for meh storms today and tomorrow, I can reverse the jinx and call for generational severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Maybe we should just close my thread. Nothing but boring failures. Eh, won't be long till the snow weenies start returning. Only about 8 weeks of storm chances left before we go back to the pencil thin hope for a rumble stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 SLGT risk into DC... MOD risk in PA and NY as well as in extreme N WV and W MD D-word mentioned as well in mod risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Hmm, nice call by HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 I bet we get an MD by 3 or so... could be a pity one... but I am feeling today is a good day for storms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 FYI: N and W counties from LWX were grouped into the STW that was just issued.. Hagerstown/Martinsburg in watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4 has a line dying on my doorstep which seems reasonable. Double meh on tap today and tomorrow? NCEP WRFs do the same. HRRR is more aggressive, not killing off the line until it is near the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 SLGT risk into DC... MOD risk in PA and NY as well as in extreme N WV and W MD D-word mentioned as well in mod risk area Saw that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NCEP WRFs do the same. HRRR is more aggressive, not killing off the line until it is near the Bay. Doing a bit better in CAPE dept than models showed which is pretty standard I guess. Shear is still iffy, plus instability over the mtns is meh. If it gets here by like sunset or so HRRR may be right. Even it doesn't look too intense locally tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 I guess its good that the squall line/QLCS has been warned in C WV... moving east means better prospects for us <weenie hope> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 May not be much by the time it reaches us this evening, but I like the direction that the line of storms is taking across W VA right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 Maybe? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BARBOUR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF AUDRA STATE PARK... BRAXTON COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SUTTON... SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN GILMER COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... LEWIS COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WESTON... RANDOLPH COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ELKINS... EAST CENTRAL ROANE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... UPSHUR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BUCKHANNON... NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 332 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JACKSON MILL TO 10 MILES NORTH OF GASSAWAY TO 25 MILES WEST OF GASSAWAY... OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WESTON TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF GLENVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Tor warn on the cell near Morgantown, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Nice CAPE on mesoanalysis a bit west of DC. There is a relative min of CAPE over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 The lightning on RadarScope pro is win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 341 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN BARBOUR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILIPPI... HARRISON COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLARKSBURG... TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GRAFTON... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 336 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ENTERPRISE TO CLARKSBURG TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUTTER FORT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MANNINGTON TO CLARKSBURG TO 8 MILES NORTH OF WESTON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 More storms firing in S WV ahead of the QLCS/squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Tor warn on the cell near Morgantown, WV Just had that cell roll through. Lots of rotation in the clouds, couplet passed south of me by a couple miles, if there was any tor it was rain-wrapped. High winds and rain, if the line keeps intensifying you DCA cats will be in for a hell of a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4'd Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Bring it! Of course the HRRR has backed off.. still brings a line thru but pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Would be nice if we could ever get a good consensus on something around here.......that didn't fail, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Mesonalysis pretty decent. Pocket of higher bulk shear but not sure it will last? CAPE bullseye nearby, Craven Brooks bullseye nearby. West of 95 might be in decent shape at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 Woah woah... 90mph east movement? WTH Edit: LWX fixed it to 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Woah woah... 90mph east movement? WTF ??? I see 50-60mph movement in the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Damn....would love to be on some of those ridges along 219 when that passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 ??? I see 50-60mph movement in the warnings. Issued before they fixed it BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 427 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 530 PM EDT * AT 425 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES WEST OF PIEDMONT TO BAYARD TO 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAYARD...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 90 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 STW coming shortly -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1318.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MD...DE...NJ...SE PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 082042Z - 082145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN PA ACROSS CNTRL VA ALONG WHICH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THE LINE OVER ERN WV MOVES INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM RANGE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE. AT 2018Z...EKN REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 KT WHICH CONFIRMS A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE IN ERN WV. THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT 50 TO 55 KTS INTO NRN VA...MD AND SERN PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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