yoda Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Tues/Wed severe risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Models have had the timing off a bit both Tue and Wed. The main embedded shortwave appears to want to pass late for day 1 and then the front drags through early on day 2. Both subject to change of course. Looks like more shear than recent events at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Slight risk area coming into the western fringes on tuesday......even some 30% probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Lotsa shear next two days compared to previous. Tho SpC risk placement seems to indicate troubles noted above locally. Haven't looked at anything today yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 mmm mmm shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 12z GFS mildly intriguing for tomorrow evening... ML Lapse rates are nearly 7.0 C/KM... 1000 SBCAPE and decent SRH... shear is a marginal 30kts for both IAD and DCA Sneaky severe or meh severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Fringedddd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I don't think we'll see much if anything tomorrow east of the mtns. All my eggs are in Wednesday's messed up setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Are the models pretty locked in with messed up timing or is there hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Are the models pretty locked in with messed up timing or is there hope? Ian and HM on twitter seem to hint at some hope from 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Ian and HM on twitter seem to hint at some hope from 18z NAM. Saw moderate risk mentioned in that back-and-forth on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I don't really see the mod risk for tomorrow.. maybe in an idealized situation across eastern OH into W PA but things look rather muddled for that for now. NAM4k has storms tomorrow locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 I like tomorrow evening for us... I think storms will be isolated, but those that form or come across the BR could pack a punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I just want to see some really nice storms...I was in Southern Maryland on the 3rd and missed the good storms locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Pretty meh about tomorrow for home grown severe. Heights are high at 700mb and today we didn't even get a cu field with good mixing. Perhaps if it comes over the apps from the OV then perhaps we have a shot. PA looks better for tomorrow and I'm more optimistic about Wednesday around here, but, still a few kinks need to be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 0z NAM has a distinct enough ripple at 500mb tomorrow to think it would be a trigger if right. Does fire some stuff up in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I guess we'll have to watch both days. It's another situation of "we shall see" - when is it not in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4 get us with the stuff in the midwest or spawn of that. Regular NAM looks to fire up east of the mtns and kill that stuff.. it's also earlier. Wed has killer shear for us lately. It's still a little wonky otherwise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4 get us with the stuff in the midwest or spawn of that. Regular NAM looks to fire up east of the mtns and kill that stuff.. it's also earlier. Wed has killer shear for us lately. It's still a little wonky otherwise though. Let's do something special with Wednesday. It's been a while since we had good shear. Though history says timing won't improve and if anything will get less favorable lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 New SPC Day 2 outlook has basically zilch for us in regards to severe... this would be for Wednesday... no SLGT risk anywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC338 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A TROF AXIS RESIDES ALONG THE I-95 CRRDR ELY THIS MRNG. BUT WITHWARM MID-LVLS...NOTHING HAS COME OF IT. EVEN THE ASSOCD CLDCVR HASTHINNED OUT. LAST NGTS CNVCTN IN THE UPR OHVLY HAS DSPTD AS WELL...AND THE RESULTANT DEBRIS CLDS WL BE ADVECTING EWD THRU THE ELY MRNGHRS.A SFC CDFNT CAN BE ANALYZED ACRS WI-MO-NRN TX...IN A SIMLR POSN TOWHERE ONE WAS 24 HRS AGO. IT WL BE MIGRATING EWD DURING THE DAY.THEREFORE...THE CWFA WL EXPERIENCE SWLY FLOW THRUT THE DAY...WITH ARATHER SGFNT P-GRAD FOR THE HEART OF SUMMERTIME. THINK DEWPTS WL BERISING INTO THE UPR 60S...WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTBY LVLS/SOMETHING THAT WAS MISSING YDA/. HWVR...CAPE/LI NOT AS GREAT ASNEIGHBORING AREAS...LKLY A CONSEQUENCE OF WARM MID-LVLS AS EVIDENCEIN MDL SNDGS. SINCE KINEMATICS ON THE STRONGER SIDE...THERE/S A LTLSHEAR TO WORK WITH AS WELL...BETTER W OF APCLNS NWD INTO PA/NYS.OVERALL...INGREDIENTS FOR CNVCTN PRESENT...PROVIDED THE CAP CAN BEBROKEN. WHAT MAY BE THE MORE LKLY SITUATION WL BE FOR TSRA TO DVLPIN THE UPR OHVLY IN THE AFTN...AND THEN FOR THAT CNVCTN TO PROPAGATEEWD...SUSTAINING ITS OWN COLD POOL. WL START TSRA IN THE AFTN W/ THEASSISTANCE OF TRRN CIRCULATIONS...AND THEN SPREAD PCPN EWD FM THERE.HV BEEN RATHER RESERVED W/ POPS...GNLY GOING NO HIER THAN SCT. THEONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ERN WVA/NRN SHEN VLY/WRN-CENTRL MD BY LTDAY-ELY EVE. ITS A QSTN IF CVRG...NOT IF ITS GOING TO HPPN. LATERGDNC MAY PUSH ME TO BE MORE EMPHATIC. CAN SEE A SVR THREAT JUSTABOUT ANYWHERE W/IN CWFA...BUT THE MORE CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZEDACTIVITY WHERE LKLY POPS PAINTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 Both 0600z runs of the LWX HME4 and the LWX ARW4N show some nice storms for the region this evening and tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 30% wind moved toward I-81 corridor.... 15% wind to I-95 corridor. Per 12z IAD sounding, ConvT is 93 degrees, which we should reach today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Rain. Any chance of some of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 The SREF maps over on the SPC site look pretty meh for tomorrow. Hopefully things trend better - they don't even look great for today locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 LWX likes today in its updated morning disco: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC957 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE A COLD FRONTMOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILLAPPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT. A SOUTHWESTFLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE HOT AND HUMIDCONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70SAND LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSSMOST OTHER LOCATIONS.THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLEATMOSPHERE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER TODAY INSTABILITYSHOULD TURN OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN MONDAY. THE MODIFIED 12Z KIADRAOB SHOWS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PRESSURETROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF CONVECTION ISEXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTOTHE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ITWILL REACH THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS EARLYTHIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ANDFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THEBEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERNMARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL AS EASTERNWEST VIRGINIA. THIS IS WHERE THE HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST AND THESHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Mesoscale disco well to our north and west that says "substantial wind damage threat" - impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4 has a line dying on my doorstep which seems reasonable. Double meh on tap today and tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 NAM4 has a line dying on my doorstep which seems reasonable. Double meh on tap today and tomorrow? I am hinging my severe weather hopes on this evening with that line... I am not big on tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I am hinging my severe weather hopes on this evening with that line... I am not big on tomorrow Tomorrow looks mostly southeast. was hoping it would slow down but it doesn't seem to want to. We suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.