A-L-E-K Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 87 IMBY gonna get rolled later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Some nice moisture convergence along the front. Dews behind dip into the 50s in spots over southern MN, while out ahead of it are in the 75-80 range. The 25 dew at Worthington MN is erroneous. Someone must have tripped over a cord there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 this is about the highest dew point I've ever seen (Storm Lake IA) Conditions at: KSLB observed 06 July 2014 20:15 UTC Temperature: 31.0°C (88°F) Dewpoint: 28.0°C (82°F) [RH = 84%] KSLB 062015Z AUTO 28013G18KT 10SM SCT025 31/28 A2982 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 6, 2014 Author Share Posted July 6, 2014 SPC mesoanalysis showing 7500j/kg SBCAPE southeast of Sioux City IA. Wow. Up to 8000 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 8000j/kg lolli showing up southeast of Sioux City now per SPC meso. EDIT: ^ninja'd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 84°/74° here. HI 90° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Just had a little boomer/downpour move through... already miss the weather of last week. Not a fan of 70F+ dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 gonna get rolled later Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Some nice towers over southern MN on the latest vis. Looks like initiation is getting pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Cooking here. Getting licked by a hot sun and muggy southwesterlies. A real chafer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Not terribly excited about today, though something to take the edge off this scorching sun would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 It's about 4 hours out. I'm thinking it'll hold when it pushes down south. With interval partly cloudy skies for the remainder of the day, some classic summer night boomers later looks likely at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 GOES-detected sounding from ORD shows >4000 j/kg CAPE as of 21z. Image will update with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 LOT does not sound too excited, though N IL has had hours to destabilize ... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 546 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 535 PM CDT AM IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...NAMELY TO ADJUST TIMING OF POPS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MASS OF CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN WITH EROSION OCCURRING ACROSS IA/IL. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN FROM LACROSSE EASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE IMPULSE THAT TRACKED SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN EARLIER AND SEEMS TO HAVE ENHANCED THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. FURTHER WEST...THE COOL FRONT IS STARTING TO DRIVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EAU CLAIRE TO ROCHESTER TO MASON CITY TO WEBSTER CITY. IN TERMS OF THE LOCAL CWA...WILL BE SLOWING DOWN POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM ORD/MDW CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SUPPORTING THE FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE INITIAL CONCERN IS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. TIMING FROM SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD HAVE THIS POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD 01Z. CAPPING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET SO SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IF NOT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88. WILL ADJUST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION OF ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA ROUGHLY AROUND 03Z AND TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA ROUGHLY 05/06Z. THE NEXT QUESTION IS COVERAGE. LESS CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT BUT WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOT THAT WELL DEFINED CONVECTION MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING OR INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT SUSPECT THAT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCATTERED BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THOUGH IT MAY BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS GIVEN THE LATER TIMING. MDB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Up to 8000 now. One of the most impressive instability gradients that I've seen. Would love to just take a drive from the region of 8000 J/KG CAPE to the region of >100 J/KG CAPE to get a feel of the drastic airmass difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 One of the most impressive instability gradients that I've seen. Would love to just take a drive from the region of 8000 J/KG CAPE to the region of >100 J/KG CAPE to get a feel of the drastic airmass difference. If something goes, *cough* Plainfield, IL *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Hawkeye might see a little action. Tornado warned cell about 40 miles northwest of Cedar Rapids heading his way. EDIT: That storm has now produced a confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Really nice tornado on live stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 And here is the screenshot showing that tight instability gradient earlier today. Omaha 00Z sounding came in at 7282 j/kg for SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 836 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 834 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF TRAER AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 That storm in Jasper County IA that was just TORed is probably about to produce a strong-violent tornado. Classic pre-tornadic signature on Doppler velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I mean it might not be a bad idea to have a tornado watch for Iowa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I mean it might not be a bad idea to have a tornado watch for Iowa... A severe watch, an MD...something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 A severe watch, an MD...something.I was gonna say, there's not even an MD, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 TOG, good call Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 At least it's in a 2% unlike some other events this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Jeez, finally an MD is out but watch is unlikely due to high uncertainty. Meanwhile there are 2 tornadoes on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 A severe watch, an MD...something. I had to look back, they haven't had anything since that MD several hours ago. A bit baffling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0907 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INTO ERN IACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 070207Z - 070300ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THISEVENING. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHSTRONGEST STORMS. AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.DISCUSSION...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE NOTED ON RADAR INMADISION...JASPER...BENTON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN IA JUST AHEAD OFTHE SFC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WERE ALONG THE AXIS OF GREATESTINSTABILITY IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL IA. THE 00Z DVN RAOBSUGGESTS THAT CAPPING INCREASES WITH EASTERN EXTENT HOWEVER...SOLONGEVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE LIKELYTAPPING INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT RECEIVEDSTRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...THE DVN 88-D VWP SHOWSAROUND 150-250 M2/S2 SRH...WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN THE MOSTLYSHORT-LIVED LAND SPOUT TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL IA THISEVENING...AND THE LONGER-LIVED AND DEEPER TORNADO-PRODUCINGMESOCYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAMA/BENTON COUNTY SUPERCELL. WHILECURRENT PARAMETER SPACE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SEVEREPOTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH EWD EXTENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENSAND CAPPING INCREASES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANYINCREASE IN ACTIVITY...BUT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TOBOTH EVOLUTION AND LONGEVITY OF THE ONGOING THREAT...LEITMAN/HART.. 07/07/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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