wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Nobody should be "busting" CAPE day at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 SPC should upgrade the NYC to DC and SW corridor for tomorrow to slight at next update IMO. #doit Also, some cu popping up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MD AND VA/PARTS OF ERN WV AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 021605Z - 021700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF MD AND VA...AND PORTIONS OF ERN WV AND PERHAPS NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN WV INTO MD AND NRN/CENTRAL VA. MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FARTHER SWD INTO NRN NC. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DISCUSSION...MODIFIED 12Z IAD SOUNDING WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY RISING TO AROUND 90 F WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT RESULTS IN NO INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...WITH SBCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY BEING REALIZED WITH THE TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN ERN WV /TUCKER COUNTY/ INTO THE WRN MD PANHANDLE /GARRETT AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES/. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SWD FROM PA TO NERN TN/WRN NC...AND WITHIN A NNE-SSW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NRN/WRN VA TO WRN NC. GIVEN THE UNCAPPED AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH. STRONGEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. MULTICELL STORM MODE CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN WV THROUGH NRN VA AND MD...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Wonder if they'll add a 30% wind.. could see that into northern parts of the area at least. Tho hi res are not emphatic on coverage on the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 What are transient rotating structures? Are those like storms that attain brief sup status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 1600 SPC mesoanalysis has DC to BWI in 3000 MLCAPE and 4000 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Wonder if they'll add a 30% wind.. could see that into northern parts of the area at least. Tho hi res are not emphatic on coverage on the whole. We have a winner... 30% wind added to extreme N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 We have a winner... 30% wind added to extreme N MDNow to get the slight for tomorrow at 1730z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 STW issued... from 1245pm to 8pm... winds to 70 and hail to 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 DISCUSSION...TSTMS FORMING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN ZONE OFCONFLUENCE ATTENDANT TO UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TOINCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING THROUGH THEAFTN. WHILE DEEP WSWLY SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...SUFFICIENTSHEAR APPEARS PRESENT THROUGHOUT WW AREA PER VWP DATA TO SUPPORTORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS SVRHAIL GIVEN DEGREE OF BUOYANCY/MOISTURE PRESENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Downstream MCD issued for eastern areas as well MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1145 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF LONGISLAND/CT/RI/MA AND SRN NHCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 021645Z - 021745ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THEMID-ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMSBECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WWISSUANCE IS LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND SWD TO NJ...SERN PA ANDPERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA.DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURESALREADY AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AROUND NOON IN THE UPPER 80S TOLOWER 90S FROM SERN PA AND NJ NWD TO NH. THIS HEATING OCCURRINGWITHIN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES OF 1.7TO NEAR 2 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITYACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. EFFECTIVEBULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOMESUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. THESEFACTORS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATSTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Did the GFS show the same flooding rains for tomorrow? 12z NAM looked like a deluge just east of the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 CU cloudification commencing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Went out at lunch real quick, could see towers going up to my north and west. Some are the storms near York, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Did the GFS show the same flooding rains for tomorrow? 12z NAM looked like a deluge just east of the I-95 corridorNot really, 0.4-0.8" areawide tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 SPC should upgrade the NYC to DC and SW corridor for tomorrow to slight at next update IMO. #doit Verified. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Verified. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Woostorms. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCH. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODEST AT BEST...REGIONS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND/UPSTATE NY TO CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATELY STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT /30-40 KT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND ISOLATED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS ALTHOUGH MARGINAL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Where is my TOR threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Lots of CU going up outside now. Just watching them grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Ian is the next Nostradamus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Where is my TOR threat? Tomorrow should be a 2%er given the shear at least. Pretty unidirectional but see if there are boundaries etc. Near the front might do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It might be another few hours before we see anything come east of the mts and I-81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I am not super impressed so far - but it does look like they are forming a line of sorts. I also see a few hail markers along the line - most notably just east of Lost City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 At least radar is showing the signs of the old school line formation from the 80's. It will probably split in half and skip dc metro tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I am not super impressed so far - but it does look like they are forming a line of sorts. I also see a few hail markers along the line - most notably just east of Lost City. Gives us more time to destabilize I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Almost looks like our squall lines of the 90s and early 2000s trying to form paging Bob Chill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like some slight bowing starting in the line out by MRB and to the SW of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 230 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 300 PM EDT * AT 225 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHEPHERDSTOWN TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHARLES TOWN...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR KEARNEYSVILLE. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE INDOORS TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Storm near Harrisonburg just warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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