mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 1500 MLCAPE and 2000 SBCAPE already in some parts of the LWX CWA 2500 sbcape in parts of northern/western MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 are you using the SPC hourly analysis page or a different source? 1500 MLCAPE and 2000 SBCAPE already in some parts of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 3500 sbcape now coming out of PA per SPC meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wonder if we'll get a special balloon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wonder if we'll get a special balloon today.Short bus balloon ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I haven't looked at god model yet. What's it say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Short bus balloon ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 MD to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Short bus balloon ftw. I hope the storms miss you and you have 6000 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 includes your BY. AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...VT...WRNMA/CT...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL NJ...AND NRN MDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 021428Z - 021530ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHFROM WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THEMORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BELIKELY...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELYBY LATE MORNING.DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ASHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKESREGION...AND A SECOND UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH LOWER MI/NRNIND. AN ATTENDANT BAND OF 50-60 KT SWLY 500 MB WINDS EXTENDS FROMTHE UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN QUEBEC PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...WITH THESEWINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFTSOMEWHAT EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING BULK SHEAR.MOSAIC RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWEDCU/TCU AND A FEW CB DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY FROM WRN/CENTRAL PAINTO CENTRAL NY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...GIVEN ABUNDANTSURFACE HEATING PER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVEENVIRONMENT.OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ALREADYMODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. THIS IS CONFIRMED PERMODIFICATION OF THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOWING NO INHIBITION AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. DESPITEVERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH THE AIR MASSBECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORTORGANIZED STORMS FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS EFFECTIVEBULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45 KT FROM NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER NWD THISAFTERNOON...PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014 MD to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Extreme northern portion of LWX is included in that MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I know. Was trying to be DC centric for a change, geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 3000-4000 SBCAPE showing up already on SPC meso page at 14z... 1500-2000 MLCAPE... LI's -5 to -7... 1100-1200 DCAPE. Wish we could hold on to the ML Lapse Rates of 6.5C/KM a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I hope the storms miss you and you have 6000 SBCAPEPossible. Not a cloud to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Possible. Not a cloud to be seen. I'm assuming we are capped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Possible. Not a cloud to be seen. The atmosphere is cooking right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'm assuming we are capped? Yeah, at least per spc meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Storms firing in W MD/E WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'm assuming we are capped? Not strongly but some remnant EML around still I think. It is supposed to wane as we go. In theory it could be an ideal setup but we may still struggle to get widespread convection right around here and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Watch up for PA and northeast. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0384.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Watch up for PA and northeast. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0384.html We should get an MD later on, prob early afternoon. I expect a watch... maybe a "meh one" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 4000 SBCAPE DC and west and 11a. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 3000-4000 SBCAPE showing up already on SPC meso page at 14z... 1500-2000 MLCAPE... LI's -5 to -7... 1100-1200 DCAPE. Wish we could hold on to the ML Lapse Rates of 6.5C/KM a bit longer 15z 4000 SBCAPE right over DCA... ~2500 MLCAPE... LI's -5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wish every day was CAPEday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wish every day was CAPEday. Is this the type of environment, if we were to get storms (we better) that a storm could go from a blip on radar to a severe storm in a few scans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wish every day was CAPEday. FailCAPEDay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 FailCAPEDay I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I don't think so. bullish ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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