wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 NAM also advertising Thursday as an early day special. 2200 SBCAPE just as the nocturnal inversion clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Slight risk still for tomorrow. Discussion states best threat may be north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Slight risk still for tomorrow. Discussion states best threat may be north of us. We suck at shear. Though 20-30kts at 500mb should be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Line firing up in C PA. And a warned cell east of Cumberland that doesn't look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looking good as we close. Tomorrow seems at least scattered severe chowing down on CAPE and gusting out etc.. could be more widespread if it comes together right. Thurs has good shear and still plenty of instability. Question there is more timing but I think it should easily be another storm day... probably more widespread with severity to be determined? Thurs has upside tornado potential but timing and placement of features might be pretty important. Goooo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looking good as we close. Tomorrow seems at least scattered severe chowing down on CAPE and gusting out etc.. could be more widespread if it comes together right. Thurs has good shear and still plenty of instability. Question there is more timing but I think it should easily be another storm day... probably more widespread with severity to be determined? Thurs has upside tornado potential but timing and placement of features might be pretty important. Goooo storms. Let's go for two days in a row with good severe somewhere in the metro area. Haven't had a really nice two day stretch in a while. Although...knowing our track record one of the days will probably bust horribly. CAPE Day seems poised to deliver on at least CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Let's go for two days in a row with good severe somewhere in the metro area. Haven't had a really nice two day stretch in a while. Although...knowing our track record one of the days will probably bust horribly. CAPE Day seems poised to deliver on at least CAPE. I still have a bit of a hard time accepting 5000+ SBCAPE and 4000+ MLCAPE the NAM insists on for us tomorrow afternoon. GFS I believe was 3500 and 2000, respectively, but I will check to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I still have a bit of a hard time accepting 5000+ SBCAPE and 4000+ MLCAPE the NAM insists on for us tomorrow afternoon. GFS I believe was 3500 and 2000, respectively, but I will check to be sure almost 3k CAPE this evening. 0z NAM has 3k by 12z out west. 4k should be easy somewhere unless we convect super early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 almost 3k CAPE this evening. 0z NAM has 3k by 12z out west. 4k should be easy somewhere unless we convect super early. Lots of hail showing up on there ont he SARS section. Though I won't pretend to understand that system - too lazy to read about it right now. I wonder if tomorrow will be a day with pulsey type stuff but the kind that will be explosive for a while before collapsing/outflowing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 almost 3k CAPE this evening. 0z NAM has 3k by 12z out west. 4k should be easy somewhere unless we convect super early. Untitled-1.gif One would think that if there was 4000 MLCAPE we may see some 70mph gusts tomorrow... or does MLCAPE not really reflect damaging wind potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 One would think that if there was 4000 MLCAPE we may see some 70mph gusts tomorrow... or does MLCAPE not really reflect damaging wind potential? DCAPE is good to look at for damaging winds in some cases. The problem with looking at CAPE only for damaging winds is that they can come from a bunch of different sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 00z NAM at 12z WED (8am tomorrow morning) has 2500 MLCAPE/1320 DCAPE/2000 SBCAPE at KIAD 15z at KIAD has 25 kts shear, 3800 MLCAPE, and 4500 SBCAPE 18z at KIAD has 20-25 kts shear, 4500 MLCAPE, and 5000 SBCAPE Not sure why SUP Potential is in the 70% range at 18z and 21z... SBCAPE nearing 6000 at 21z at KIAD, so evening fireworks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 00z tomorrow at DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 The NAM has gone from being a bad model in winter to just being a bad model. Last week it barely convected (the low res ver at least) and it barely does at 0z here either. Rise of the HRRR has really shown the NAM is still really sub-par with a lot of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 HI res NAM doesn't appear to have much either but does pop a few cells mainly NW by 4-6 then tries to get a line going moving east. Find the storms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Go me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 NAM could be right. There's no large scale trigger and heights are rising in the morning followed by steady in the PM. But it also drops 700mb temps during the day and all that CAPE has to do something somewhere. Good lee trough day maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 You're so wishy washy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 You're so wishy washy I work at a think tank.. we don't make any decisions we just offer suggestions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I work at a think tank.. we don't make any decisions we just offer suggestions.Made me laugh. My less than extensive knowledge from Intro to Convection 101 class that I'm less than half way through makes me think some acceptable stuff fires tomorrow. Seems kinda ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 00z GFS has 4000 SBCAPE at IAD 18z... so some support to high CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Made me laugh. My less than extensive knowledge from Intro to Convection 101 class that I'm less than half way through makes me think some acceptable stuff fires tomorrow. Seems kinda ripe. There's no great trigger but there is more than enough instability and probably enough shear to get something to roll off the terrain, plus any local windshifts/differential heating etc. Thurs is more the sure bet to get wet areawide but I'd be a little surprised if nothing comes of the setup tomorrow.. tho the GFS does have the same steady heights after rising heights. Add in some remnant EML and isolated stuff or a cap bust isn't unheard of either. Plus I think the timing of the shortwave on Thurs is going to be off anyway.. not to mention the turd off the coast. Always something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 There's no great trigger but there is more than enough instability and probably enough shear to get something to roll off the terrain, plus any local windshifts/differential heating etc. Thurs is more the sure bet to get wet areawide but I'd be a little surprised if nothing comes of the setup tomorrow.. tho the GFS does have the same steady heights after rising heights. Add in some remnant EML and isolated stuff or a cap bust isn't unheard of either. Plus I think the timing of the shortwave on Thurs is going to be off anyway.. not to mention the turd off the coast. Always something. Wasn't there a day a lil while back where we had 6000 SBCAPE... but since no trigger, nothing came of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I am going 2/15/30 for the 0600 OTLK. All in on CAPE DAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Wasn't there a day a lil while back where we had 6000 SBCAPE... but since no trigger, nothing came of it? Two weeks ago tomorrow.. some stuff did fire out ahead of the decaying main line up north. Late show but probably 4-5 cells in the area lots of lightning etc. It didn't rain here of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 There's no great trigger but there is more than enough instability and probably enough shear to get something to roll off the terrain, plus any local windshifts/differential heating etc. Thurs is more the sure bet to get wet areawide but I'd be a little surprised if nothing comes of the setup tomorrow.. tho the GFS does have the same steady heights after rising heights. Add in some remnant EML and isolated stuff or a cap bust isn't unheard of either. Plus I think the timing of the shortwave on Thurs is going to be off anyway.. not to mention the turd off the coast. Always something. Hopefully things get organized to the West with more than a county and a half coverage. Would be nice for most of us to at least have a storm at the same general time. Not sure about thurs. Maybe more wet than exciting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 For now, SPC puts the kibosh on the Thursday severe chances with its new Day 2 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Day 1 SPC OTLK from 0600z -- 0/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 1500 MLCAPE and 2000 SBCAPE already in some parts of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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