EastCoast NPZ Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lot of arguing going on here. I can tell you, there are some serious storms today. By radar, it looks like my house is finally going to see some real rain. I hope the hail missed it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hail core showing up in Culpepper county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hail core showing up in Culpepper county a few are showing that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0173NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD233 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...VA...MD...PA...NYCONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELYVALID 031820Z - 040020ZSUMMARY...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTEDTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MERGING AND LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CELLSWILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY AGITATEDAND EXPANDING CU/TCU FIELD FROM SOUTHWEST VA NORTHEAST UP ALONGTHE EASTERN FLANK OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGEINVOLVING EASTERN WV...VA...MD...PA AND NY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THEGROWING CU/TCU FIELD ARE ALREADY CLUSTERS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AQUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HUNG UP OVERTHE APPALACHIANS. THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE FRONT IS BECOMING VERYUNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...ESP ALONG ANDWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.STRONG DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH ATROPICAL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ANDNORTHEAST...AND AIDED IN PART BY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY INOFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF HURRICANE ARTHUR...WILL FOSTERVERY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZEDHEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.OVER THE NEXT SEVEREAL HOURS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGENERALLY WEST OF I-95 AND CONCENTRATED ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WESTOF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY ANDAPPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGINDEVELOPING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.THERE IS STRONG CONCERN FOR CELL-MERGERS AND CELL TRAINING ACROSSTHE THREAT AREA...AND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE BLUE RIDGE OFWESTERN VA...EASTERN WV...WESTERN MD...AND SOUTHWEST PA WHEREENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUNCE/MOISTURE FLUX AND WEAK STEERING FLOWAROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF APPROACHING HURRICANE ARTHUR WILLSUPPORT SLOW-MOVING AND TRAINING CELLS.GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND PWATS AS PER LATEST GOES-SOUNDER OF 1.75 TO2 INCHES...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE VERY INTENSE...AND LIKELY ON THEORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR FLASHFLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED...AND ESP OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.ORRISON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Jesus, true golf-ball sized hail in Middletown just now. I can't believe it. Definitely seems like hail threat is larger than previously anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Woah... 2-3" p/h rates... havent seen those since Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Meh storms for all! ....I told the hubby who was leaving early to please take down our patio cover and bring in my plants. I'm not taking chances with possible 60-70 gusts and hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 My threads don't fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Lol. Loads of "meh storms" right now with 60mph winds and 1-2" hail. Lots of minor damage can be done with even low-end severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Stay vigilant Leesburg! BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 301 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... CENTRAL LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 301 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR BERRYVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLUEMONT... ROUND HILL... PURCELLVILLE... OATLANDS... LEESBURG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Might be good enough for some "meh" storms. here's the thing...as someone who's read this forum since the Eastern days. this is a pro-storm crowd. providing instincts in favor of a storm is acceptable here usually, but if you're gonna "meh" something, you gotta provide science. there's tropical moisture around with a cold front coming through. this is a good setup for storms, maybe not severe here, but it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Frustrating. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 75 dewie at DCA. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Moderate rain and distant thunder here. Calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 321 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... EASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CITY OF MANASSAS PARK IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CITY OF MANASSAS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... WESTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 320 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 6 MILES SOUTH OF HAYMARKET...OR 8 MILES WEST OF MANASSAS...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BULL RUN... MANASSAS... CENTREVILLE... SOUTH RIDING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 One just missed Germantown to the NW but I think I'll finally get much-needed rain today. I've gotten only 0.2" since June 19 and my lawn is crispy!! Radar earlier looked like finally a decent downpour in the Stephens City, VA Desert Region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Urbana here hit head on. Lightning, thunder, wind, and very heavy rain. Not too shabby! Storm gets a seven on the wife complaining that the satellite is out scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks like southern MoCo may be in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 One just missed Germantown to the NW but I think I'll finally get much-needed rain today. I've gotten only 0.2" since June 19 and my lawn is crispy!! Radar earlier looked like finally a decent downpour in the Stephens City, VA Desert Region? Yeah, I've been watching. Certainly looks like I finally got a good one! I'll find out here in another hours or so. That combined w/ some cooler wx tomorrow might bring back my grass some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The heavy rain train is coming on the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I am cautiously hopeful but I will just have to wait and see. I hear all the hype, but my pavement is bone dry. My grass is crispy brown. I have partly cloudy weather plenty of sunshine, temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 77 degrees. There's no guarantee of rain but we definitely have a 100 percent guarantee of hot and humid thru most of September. Hoping and praying hard for a quarter inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Cell SW and NW both showing some supercell characteristics .. RFDs showing up now on radar. One SW is behind outflow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 335 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 MDC013-021-027-031-032015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-140703T2015Z/ FREDERICK MD-MONTGOMERY MD-CARROLL MD-HOWARD MD- 335 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR HOWARD...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY AND FREDERICK COUNTIES... AT 334 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR GREEN VALLEY...OR NEAR DAMASCUS...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MOUNT AIRY... WATERSVILLE... POPLAR SPRINGS... LISBON... WATERSVILLE... WOODBINE... LIBERTYTOWN... UNIONVILLE... WINFIELD... MARSTON... NEW WINDSOR... LINWOOD... ELDERSBURG.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 One just missed Germantown to the NW but I think I'll finally get much-needed rain today. I've gotten only 0.2" since June 19 and my lawn is crispy!! Radar earlier looked like finally a decent downpour in the Stephens City, VA Desert Region? There were 65dBZ returns less than 5 miles from my house and I got 5 big, fat drops here in Clarksburg. Missed by a hair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Little cell by me is starting to crackle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Someone get my crow pie going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Someone get my crow pie going. I've got it in the oven now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 MDC013-021-027-032015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-140703T2015Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL MD-HOWARD MD- 346 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR HOWARD...CARROLL AND FREDERICK COUNTIES... AT 344 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR MOUNT AIRY... OR 6 MILES NORTH OF DAMASCUS...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WATERSVILLE... WOODBINE... LIBERTYTOWN... UNIONVILLE... WINFIELD... MARSTON... NEW WINDSOR... LINWOOD... UNION BRIDGE... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The Manassas cell has held together for quite a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 woo warning. not sure it's going to hit most of DC tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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