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July Discussion


HimoorWx

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Yeah there won't be any high heat or heat waves this summer. but we knew that going in.

 

The first week of August looks very subtropical  with deep south flow..So it's probably just a wet, humid pattern as we close the month and enter August

 

So you have come to terms with this?  Hopefully your hopes for a cold snowy winter will bear out.

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Actually according to this map the first color begins around September 12th. That's really really early. By the last week of October most of NNE is already past peak.

 

http://www.yankeefoliage.com/peak-foliage-forecast-map/

When I lived in Fort Kent, peak would usually be during the last week of September, but that's the north end of NNE. In my current foothills location, color begins about the equinox (a bit earlier on ash) and peaks somewhere in the Oct 1-10 timeframe, varying from one season to the next. I enjoy th leaf-off look of the woods. Not only is it a precursor to snow, but my views thru the trees are much longer, and that's useful in my work.

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So you have come to terms with this?  Hopefully your hopes for a cold snowy winter will bear out.

I've always been on the no high heat this summer train. You could see the setup early in spring just wasn't going to allow it..but with the trough axis continually to our west over the Lakes, it leaves the east coast in a humid regime with fropas with a dry down day or 2, and then more humidity etc etc. The pattern we've been in all summer. 

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Yeah there won't be any high heat or heat waves this summer. but we knew that going in.

 

The first week of August looks very subtropical  with deep south flow..So it's probably just a wet, humid pattern as we close the month and enter August

 

You've been hyping high heat and humidity for weeks... and nothing has come of it. 

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Are the SNE climo sites past their historic high temps at this point?

 

It is (will be nice) to be on the decline even if it's just 'in principle' for a while rather than noticeable.

 

67.9/62

 

Not SNE, but Farmington, Maine COOP has such a flat peak it's almost silly to pick a single day as top. For all data 1893 on (which includes more than one instrument location) the avg reaches 67.5 on 7/11 and remains there thru 7/27, with the wamest day at 68.1 on 7/19. The numbers for 1981-2010 are even broader, and less symmetrical. The daily mean reaches 66.5 on 7/13 and remains aoa that mark thru 8/7, with 7/29 the warmest at a tic over 67. My own location (1998 on) mirrors Farm 1981-2010 but 1F cooler, reaching 65.5 on 7/16 and sustaining that thru 8/5, with peak also on 7/29, squeaking above 66.

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With a nice coastal storm as well! 

 

GFS has some "bagginess" of the isobars off the NJ coast Monday so the GFS is probably a cooler/easterly flow setup.

 

Sounds like a rough stretch for those rooting for high heat. 

 

 

Lol, that thing looks straight out of winter...we'd be talking about where the banding sets up if it was snow.

 

I'm not sure I buy something that far south just yet...but its starting to look like next Sunday night and monday could see some sort of ugly easterly flow rain event.

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I actually haven't found this summer to be hot or humid... quite comfortable in fact. 

All I know is..it hasn't been a hot summer. But Imo it has been fairly humid in July..which explains why all of the big 4 are AN for the month. Mostly due to warm, muggy nighttime mins on many of the nights..starting again tonight thru Thurs nite

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Actually according to this map the first color begins around September 12th. That's really really early. By the last week of October most of NNE is already past peak.

http://www.yankeefoliage.com/peak-foliage-forecast-map/

Looks about right...can even start to get some change in the higher elevation (like 3,000ft) birch and beeches in late August.

And West Chesterfield, MA goes past peak on Labor Day, haha.

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 Not SNE, but Farmington, Maine COOP has such a flat peak it's almost silly to pick a single day as top. For all data 1893 on (which includes more than one instrument location) the avg reaches 67.5 on 7/11 and remains there thru 7/27, with the wamest day at 68.1 on 7/19. The numbers for 1981-2010 are even broader, and less symmetrical. The daily mean reaches 66.5 on 7/13 and remains aoa that mark thru 8/7, with 7/29 the warmest at a tic over 67. My own location (1998 on) mirrors Farm 1981-2010 but 1F cooler, reaching 65.5 on 7/16 and sustaining that thru 8/5, with peak also on 7/29, squeaking above 66.

 

With my own personal data I have a plateau as well from July 15th through July 30th with a daily mean of 69.6°F but I'm able to show more decimal places and I know that I reach a peak of 69.72 on July 23rd.

 

Someone posted a table a few years ago showing climate peak dates and it's interesting how some places have a peak earlier in July and others not until early August.  You could even see places that were regionally close had dates that were weeks apart.  Then again, we're talking about "smoothing" out a non-linear curve of averages from one day to the next.

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All I know is..it hasn't been a hot summer. But Imo it has been fairly humid in July..which explains why all of the big 4 are AN for the month. Mostly due to warm, muggy nighttime mins on many of the nights..starting again tonight thru Thurs nite

You are delusional. I put my central A/C on when it gets even slightly humid at night. I hate being warm when I'm sleeping. The fact that my A/C has been off more than on in July is very rare for me in SE NY. Up at my house in Lake George it's a different story.

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I don't want to be wearing sweat pants and sweatshirts in July at night...i want to be in my undergarments on the porch soaking in the heat and nature sounds of deep summer

Yes, because it's so much more pleasant to sit outside and get eaten by bugs and have no choice but to shower before you get into bed because you are soaked with sweat. That's like saying I want it so cold in January that my nose hair freezes when I breathe, No...I want it cold enough to snow and accumulate. It's pleasant out to take a walk in without my fingers and toes going numb. Most people that like it roasting hot all summer or bitter cold all winter seem to not have to pay for their utilities......

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I don't want to be wearing sweat pants and sweatshirts in July at night...i want to be in my undergarments on the porch soaking in the heat and nature sounds of deep summer

Nothing worse in the warm wx months than to have to worry about bringing a long sleeved tee or North Face jacket with you at night. Absolutely ruins the summer vibe and feel
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I don't want to be wearing sweat pants and sweatshirts in July at night...i want to be in my undergarments on the porch soaking in the heat and nature sounds of deep summer

 

 

You live in a bad spot for that where your summer avg daily min temp is in the low to mid 50s...moving to the mid-atlantic would help a lot.

 

Or maybe even the CT river valley in a spot that doesn't radiate too much would help quite a bit.

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You are delusional. I put my central A/C on when it gets even slightly humid at night. I hate being warm when I'm sleeping. The fact that my A/C has been off more than on in July is very rare for me in SE NY. Up at my house in Lake George it's a different story.

Same here, we've barely run it this year.  Most nights have been cool and dry. Great sleeping weather.  Nice to save some $$$ on utilities after this past winter!

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