ice1972 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Probably immature teenagers and men on the internet. Probably..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Probably.....women too, if we are going to be completely PC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 How in the heck did you come in below normal for October last year? I think most were +1.5-+2...some good radional cooling nights? Yeah, that was the month that was barely below normal for me. It was well above through the last week but the last week was solidly below normal - enough to nudge it just negative. The 26th was the coldest day with a mean -9° below the long term normal. FWIW, October would have been based on 29 year normals but since May I've been completing the 30 year cycle so as of next May I'll have a complete 30 year record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Dew you dew, feel like I dew? CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND WORCESTER CLOUDY 65 55 70 E6 FITCHBURG CLOUDY 69 59 70 CALM SPRINGFIELD PTSUNNY 70 59 68 N6 WESTFIELD CLOUDY 67 60 78 N7 NORTH ADAMS CLOUDY 64 59 83 CALM PITTSFIELD CLOUDY 63 58 83 N3 $$ RIZALL-201500- RHODE ISLAND CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PROVIDENCE LGT RAIN 68 59 73 NE7 NEWPORT CLOUDY 68 58 70 E7 BLOCK ISLAND CLOUDY 66 61 82 E9 SMITHFIELD CLOUDY 66 55 68 NE6 WESTERLY CLOUDY 70 59 68 NE9 $$ CTZALL-201500- CONNECTICUT CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND BRADLEY INTL CLOUDY 69 60 73 N5 HARTFORD CLOUDY 69 57 65 NE6 BRIDGEPORT CLOUDY 70 59 68 NE9 DANBURY MOSUNNY 69 58 67 E8 GROTON CLOUDY 67 59 75 NE8 NEW HAVEN CLOUDY 71 59 65 NE6 CHESTER FAIR 66 57 72 NE5 MERIDEN CLOUDY 69 58 67 N7 WILLIMANTIC CLOUDY 67 57 70 N3 OXFORD PTSUNNY 66 55 68 NE7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 The recurving typhoon idea is being overstated, not just because the correlation is much weaker at this time of year (which makes sense if one understands atmospheric dynamics/physics), but because there are no recurving typhoons in the first place. Everything is suppressed S into China as of late. The reason the recurve correlation is weaker at this time of year is because the gradients everywhere are too weak to respond -- gradient drives everything, including ...the generation of the jet stream (that core of the westerlies the circuitously wends its way around the hemisphere) From a purely statistical point of view the PNA isn't even correalted at CDC for a reason, from early June to late August. If the PNA isn't correlating, how the hell can a recurving typhoon also teleconnect all the way around the hemisphere, either ? Answer: not NCEP mentioned this in their discussion last week and they were wrong to do so. The recurving typhoon effect on pattern study is resurfacing as an apparent meme, and every paper I have read on the subject matter says to do so at this time of year means the science is being improperly referenced. The strongest correlation for this relationship in large dosing of latent heat forcing R-wave construction is Sept through Dec, and that makes sense dynamically, because that is when gradient returns to the N/ Hemisphere in sufficient measure to actually "trigger" those responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Correct. No recurves at all upcoming either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Due west?, and yes many mets have posted on the effect, not understanding where Tip is coming from, multiple studies conclude and many mets here including Mike Ventrice and Sam Lillo have posted proof. did you even look at the links I posted, geez. Latest Joint Typhoon center, also the GEFS has two more recurves, please please read this link , about halfway down is a great explanation on what is going on. http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-forecast-for-august-another-highly-anomalous-polar-air-mass-to-impact-the-eastern-two-thirds/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 We do not toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Due west?, and yes many mets have posted on the effect, not understanding where Tip is coming from, multiple studies conclude and many mets here including Mike Ventrice and Sam Lillo have posted proof. did you even look at the links I posted, geez. Latest Joint Typhoon center, also the GEFS has two more recurves, please please read this link , about halfway down is a great explanation on what is going on. http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-forecast-for-august-another-highly-anomalous-polar-air-mass-to-impact-the-eastern-two-thirds/ It certainly helps to have refereed material, as opposed to one persons opinions - agreed. But that link is just another Met's And by the way, that pattern/chart put up on that link is classically over-amplfied relative to what has, and most likely, will take place. I am but one person. And it is my opinion that it is being overstated ... and I did not say there is no effect at all. Just that it is being mentioned too often, particularly when the correlation/physical relationship to pattern forcing is theoretically dubious at this time of year. And I am well educated Meteorologist. That part is scientific fact, regardless of "other mets" -- that's a kind of weak argument, frankly. The atmosphere is going to be sensitive to all inputs in the balancing of heat source and sink. So dosing to higher latitudes of latent heat fluxes from transitioning typhoons has to have some effect. I understand that. But the "effect" is weak at this time of year. The science is centered around transitioning typhoons into extratropical vortexes, and kinetic energy distribution which we see in the form of modulating the pattern. I don't sense that those who are mentioning the recurve actually understand that. (not necessarily you per se..) just in general. Consider this ... the pattern et al was well established before this season's west Pac activity ramped up. How do you explain that. We have been in this type of west-east, ridge trough relationship all the while. The other thing that's less a debate over causality: Has anyone noticed that despite the pattern "appeal" we are struggling to get negative departures? If find that interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Upton can't win-went party sunny yesterday we were cloudy, vice versa for today. Oh well. 73/64 with a nice breeze here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 http://met.nps.edu/climate_CDPW09/documents/Session_10/10.03_Archambault_34th_CDPW_Oct09.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 It certainly helps to have refereed material, as opposed to one persons opinions - agreed. But that link is just another Met's And by the way, that pattern/chart put up on that link is classically over-amplfied relative to what has, and most likely, will take place. I am but one person. And it is my opinion that it is being overstated ... and I did not say there is no effect at all. Just that it is being mentioned too often, particularly when the correlation/physical relationship to pattern forcing is theoretically dubious at this time of year. And I am well educated Meteorologist. That part is scientific fact, regardless of "other mets" -- that's a kind of weak argument, frankly. The atmosphere is going to be sensitive to all inputs in the balancing of heat source and sink. So dosing to higher latitudes of latent heat fluxes from transitioning typhoons has to have some effect. I understand that. But the "effect" is weak at this time of year. The science is centered around transitioning typhoons into extratropical vortexes, and kinetic energy distribution which we see in the form of modulating the pattern. I don't sense that those who are mentioning the recurve actually understand that. (not necessarily you per se..) just in general. Consider this ... the pattern et al was well established before this season's west Pac activity ramped up. How do you explain that. We have been in this type of west-east, ridge trough relationship all the while. The other thing that's less a debate over causality: Has anyone noticed that despite the pattern "appeal" we are struggling to get negative departures? If find that interesting. last 5 days were negative departures but trough and coldest is Midwest as is recurving typhoons climo, you mentioned its overused, link? I think the NWS, Mike Ventrice, WSI, Sam Lillo are highly educated too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Hey Powederfreak, I wish that NWS Boston would put up climate sheets for BTV to CAR, like they do for SNE (but that would be outside their purview of course... heh), because I have a sneakin' suspicion that while HFD and ORH are light to moderately positive bias in temperatures so far for July, those northern sites might be closer to neutral. Just a hunch ...oh wait! Ha, BTV's office does do those sheets! sweet. Annnywho, looks like my suspicions are "partially" confirmed. Looks like heat in the first 3 days of July are skewing the N locales a good bit. Remove those three days and BTV and CAR are modestly less than +1 above normal... Unnfortunately, though, we do not have that luxury of removing data from data sets... In intellectual circles we call that fudging the numbers (aka, cheating...). So, including those enormous positive anomalies puts up +3.36 so far for CAR (that's getting impressive)... and a little more than +2 for BTV. By the way, HFD (CT) confirmed a heat wave over the 1st - 3rd. Hmm. Didn't know that. Anyway, for some reason I remember this, but Scott mentioned it a couple weeks ago in passing, that it is interesting to be AN with so few 90 deg readings. I'll further that sentiment by saying it is interesting to do so, in general, with a persistent +PNAP pattern orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 last 5 days were negative departures but trough and coldest is Midwest as is recurving typhoons climo, you mentioned its overused, link? I think the NWS, Mike Ventrice, WSI, Sam Lillo are highly educated too. Link? ..what do you mean, link. It's over-used by a-priori knowledge of the science. I told you I have read many papers on it, for one, but I also described to you a little about the physical causality there... I'm done with this for now Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 I'm glad John clarified what he meant in the 2nd post...that he's not saying that there's no effect a all. I wonder if it's an Archambault paper that he's thinking of where she states the teleconnected troughs are stronger in the central US outside of Summer due to stronger temp gradients/jets. That exiting latent heat has to go somewhere though and even though the thermal gradients are weaker this time of year we've still seen the western ridge get some enhancement. Someone (Sam maybe?) a few weeks ago posted a PV/DT loop during a recurve that showed this. We've struggled to get much below normal, but we've kept the high heat well SW of us. If we're getting an abundance of sunny days it's tough to pull off negative monthly departures this time of year anyways. In the 1960s/70s we had more luck with below normal July cP airmasses, but for whatever reason (AGW, something else...) those have become rare. We really need some dead ratter 65/55 type days to pull those monthly means down, and the closest I've had this month is a 70/57. My maxT is near normal though so it's another July being influenced mostly by warm min temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Link? ..what do you mean, link. It's over-used by a-priori knowledge of the science. I told you I have read many papers on it, for one, but I also described to you a little about the physical causality there... I'm done with this for now Steve. cool but you were incorrect in stating typhoons are going into SChina as only Rasmussen has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Businessmen abandoned us this weekend, Coc streak broken. Overcast cancels COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Businessmen abandoned us this weekend, Coc streak broken. Overcast cancels COC. COC block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 We've had some good Polar air masses move into the Great Lakes region but I think it seems like they've somewhat run into a wall during this +AMO. Pretty sure that has something to do with it. Also, this whole recurve idea definitely had more of an effect when a prior RW train exists or having it occur in the cooler wx season when wavelengths are longer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Its actually clearing out nicely just west of BOS. I suspect the afternoon might be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Hey Powederfreak, I wish that NWS Boston would put up climate sheets for BTV to CAR, like they do for SNE (but that would be outside their purview of course... heh), because I have a sneakin' suspicion that while HFD and ORH are light to moderately positive bias in temperatures so far for July, those northern sites might be closer to neutral. Just a hunch ...oh wait! Ha, BTV's office does do those sheets! sweet. Annnywho, looks like my suspicions are "partially" confirmed. Looks like heat in the first 3 days of July are skewing the N locales a good bit. Remove those three days and BTV and CAR are modestly less than +1 above normal... Unnfortunately, though, we do not have that luxury of removing data from data sets... In intellectual circles we call that fudging the numbers (aka, cheating...). So, including those enormous positive anomalies puts up +3.36 so far for CAR (that's getting impressive)... and a little more than +2 for BTV. By the way, HFD (CT) confirmed a heat wave over the 1st - 3rd. Hmm. Didn't know that. Anyway, for some reason I remember this, but Scott mentioned it a couple weeks ago in passing, that it is interesting to be AN with so few 90 deg readings. I'll further that sentiment by saying it is interesting to do so, in general, with a persistent +PNAP pattern orientation. I'm a couple miles away from the MVL ASOS but its running at +0.8 on the month right now. We radiate a lot better than BTV so I think the cooler nights are keeping the departures a bit closer to normal. As you can see from the F-6, without the first three days of the month, it would be below normal. But alas it doesn't work that way...but that July 1-3 period was really the only noteworthy departures in either direction. Most of the days this month have been +/- 5F or less from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 I'm glad John clarified what he meant in the 2nd post...that he's not saying that there's no effect a all. I wonder if it's an Archambault paper that he's thinking of where she states the teleconnected troughs are stronger in the central US outside of Summer due to stronger temp gradients/jets. That exiting latent heat has to go somewhere though and even though the thermal gradients are weaker this time of year we've still seen the western ridge get some enhancement. Someone (Sam maybe?) a few weeks ago posted a PV/DT loop during a recurve that showed this. We've struggled to get much below normal, but we've kept the high heat well SW of us. If we're getting an abundance of sunny days it's tough to pull off negative monthly departures this time of year anyways. In the 1960s/70s we had more luck with below normal July cP airmasses, but for whatever reason (AGW, something else...) those have become rare. We really need some dead ratter 65/55 type days to pull those monthly means down, and the closest I've had this month is a 70/57. My maxT is near normal though so it's another July being influenced mostly by warm min temps. How far off are your minimum temps? Looking at the MVL climo sheet, its probably similar to you... the highs look spot on average at 79-80F, and the lows might be 1-1.5F above normal (56-57F, instead of 55F). We've done 3 nights in the 40s, and I usually look for about 5 or so mins in the 40s (but we still have 10 days left in the month) in July. To me its all in those first three days of July...our mins were 64/69/64 which is +10 to +15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 How far off are your minimum temps? Looking at the MVL climo sheet, its probably similar to you... the highs look spot on average at 79-80F, and the lows might be 1-1.5F above normal (56-57F, instead of 55F). We've done 3 nights in the 40s, and I usually look for about 5 or so mins in the 40s (but we still have 10 days left in the month) in July. To me its all in those first three days of July...our mins were 64/69/64 which is +10 to +15. Without looking I think I'm running about 80/60 so far and my July avg is about 79/57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Epic COC today. Just got back from VT with wall-to-wall sun here and 78/59 on the Davis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Businessmen abandoned us this weekend, Coc streak broken. Overcast cancels COC.yea mentioned yesterday but the sun is coming out now in Western sections, half a COC better than no COC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Finally cleared out here. With light NE flow it should be a nice afternoon. 73/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Been pretty nice out up here all day... CLR since 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Whatever the cause that pig arse ridge is stubborn and keeps getting reinforced. Certainly based on all Ens no sustainability for high heat in the East,odds are we maintain our within normal range summer. All ASOS stations are nearing below +2 and with the predicted pattern will probably finish +1/1.5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Its actually clearing out nicely just west of BOS. I suspect the afternoon might be pretty nice. Yup, 76/62 here mostly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 I'm a couple miles away from the MVL ASOS but its running at +0.8 on the month right now. We radiate a lot better than BTV so I think the cooler nights are keeping the departures a bit closer to normal. As you can see from the F-6, without the first three days of the month, it would be below normal. But alas it doesn't work that way...but that July 1-3 period was really the only noteworthy departures in either direction. Most of the days this month have been +/- 5F or less from normal. MVL.jpg Interesting ... so you have ur only little sort of dubious consideration with temperature averages, using BTV. I don't even use Boston any more for landscaping the averages for SNE. HFD and ORH, while accounting for 1,000ft elevation as much as once can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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