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July Discussion


HimoorWx

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Came across this ob today from Dubai...

 

OMDB 191200Z 34012KT 290V010 8000 NSC 37/31 Q0994 NOSIG

 

Nothing like an onshore flow pushing dews to near 90F. I cant even imagine what that feels like.

 

Wouldn't it be cool to take a 100mX100mX2.5m deep slab of that air mass and have it instantly appear/transport to the middle of Antarctica ?

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You and DIT pack your bags....you'll rarely be happy here in the summer.

 

I'm happy here in the summer.  I enjoy all the weather we get and the wide variety and I vastly enjoy all the challenges we are provide with when it comes to forecasting...it's an incredible learning experience and while it can be a little frustrating at times in the end it's also a great deal of fun.  

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You guys come off as actually ...competing over the DP realization/experience... 

 

It's very bizarre and ...well, weird.  It's like if someone gets higher DPs there's this smoldering petty resentment, like the other side (and vice versa for lower DPs) had anything to do with it.  

 

Egh...   Anyway,  my suspicions from yesterday have since emerged as well founded in the operational (and ensembles) since. No eastern ridging.. I think this is the 7th iteration of extended range failure on that.   Even the Euro was up to a 2.5 day torrid signal just 3 days.  Now. ...might be a 1 day if that.  

 

That said, I feel pretty strongly that the following/next trough incursion will do the same sort of thing, plumb more like straight down then up in latitude ...unable to really penetrate the deeper version of its self much past the eastern cordillera. Probably sticks us in a deep layer SW flow before another limping boundary finally comes through ... way out there in time. It's kind of confusing, because assume a trough, but assume a weaker slower fropa.    

 

I almost wonder if this tendency to rinse and repeat that sort of thing will prove prelude to perhaps a true Bahama blue rail pattern... perhaps later in August during WAR climo. The kind where puffy white towers poke up into screen-saver blue, with DPs around 72, and those bee-bee sized high pixel downpours that race S-N along favored instibility streets.  I've always imagine a hurricane forming near Puerto Rico just as one of those stalled tropical transport deals gets under way.  Never has happened though (interestingly..); why, I wonder.  

 

Seems it's either the pattern transport thing, or, flaming internet fights over correlating NAO phase states to East Coast butt banging; either side of preference, strike or no strike consternation that give us all popsicle headaches.  etc, etc.. Seems H's up this way come by the latter and it's one helluva of a needle threader.

 

You know, you can't even go into the tropical thread because it's sniper fire in there.  But I digress...  You know, many of us on here knew Sandy was going to be "Sandy" ...like 15 f days ahead, but would not risk advertising our thinking lest unintentionally solicit odd-ball resent rooted trolling.  It has absolutely zero justification really, that which goes on in tropical threads.  Lot of moderators are guilty of it ("Lord Of The Flies")

 

Buuut, this is a forum for the public and moderation is de facto structured around a kind of hush-hush popularity scheme. Some would try and argue that it's not, but to those with open minds and intelligent detection capacity ...it's pretty clear.  Someone says one thing and there can be no other logical explanation for why they said it -- yet these types seem to think people don't suspect them, or don't care.   

 

Where the hell am I going... Oh, yeah, could be interesting if such a trough semi-perms its self into say 90 W and we see that channel kick in... They're almost guaranteed good convective filming chances, with crispy TCU/CB.   Love those patterns.  

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We are running +1.0 up here on the month, with 10 above days, and 8 below. We would be below normal if it weren't for the +13, +11 and +8 days on July 1-3. Overall though, like June, very close to normal in the means.

 

+1.3°F here.  On the heel of a 11 straight months below normal.  To be fair, some of those months were only a half a degree below but a negative is a negative.

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+1.3°F here.  On the heel of a 11 straight months below normal.  To be fair, some of those months were only a half a degree below but a negative is a negative.

 

 

How in the heck did you come in below normal for October last year?

 

 

I think most were +1.5-+2...some good radional cooling nights?

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Parabolic recurves and the influence on our weather coming up shown very well here. Look how the pig ridge out west just keeps getting rebuilt, resulting in troughiness on the east coast

First is west Pac, then loop the west coast then loop the east coast, finally loop the Hemispheric view.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014072006/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wpac.html

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014072006/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_wus.html

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014072006/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_eus.html

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014072006/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem.html

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