CapturedNature Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Happened on 7/3. High temp of 90, low of 67. BDL was 91/69 on that day. I recorded a 90° on 7/3 as well even though the coop in another part of town hit 89°. I think it was one of those occasions where if you had a cloud or two more than another area, you hit 89 and the other place hit 90. I usually have a handful of them so no big deal. I was hoping for none, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Mike Ventrice http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-forecast-for-august-another-highly-anomalous-polar-air-mass-to-impact-the-eastern-two-thirds/ More changeable weather is on the way across the U.S. during the Week 3-5 time frame. Week 3 looks to feature a -North Atlantic Oscillation blocking ridge, favoring a period of hot weather across ERCOT in through the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. But statistical and dynamical models are indicating potential for another recurving West Pacific Typhoon around the second week of August, favoring increased chances for another polar vortex air-mass intrusion over the eastern two thirds around the 2nd or 3rd week of August over the eastern two thirds of the U.S. Forecast confidence is considered near average standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Little smoke from the western wildfires showing up on the Visible Satellite this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Wait...it's ok to use sick days when not ill? I have a years worth in the bank. Not retiring in the next 4 years at least, I never know when I'll need them at my age. I only use sl when medical appointments or actually sick. I've only been unable to work due to sickness about 4-5 days in the past 41 years. The incentive to not using sl is the remainder at retirement is added to years worked. That's another year tacked onto pension calculations. Well it's kind of hard to explain, but sort of...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Everyone describing today as perfect. I concur, not many describe HHH as perfect, looks like next weeks heat wave went poof. Although people rooting for HHH is no different or more crazy than you or others rooting for record cold & snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Right...that's what i was getting at. If you follow him on Twitter he has been steadfast against a mod-strong nino and has always been leaning weak to low end mod Well his top analog was 2002 which is a moderate El Nino. He was always against a strong east-based El Nino that was long lived...but I never saw him say that he was against a solid moderate peak...or even a shotlived strong peak like 2009, 1965, and 1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 We should be fairly confident in a day to day and half of torrid conditions at some point next week, particularly as the current flattening of the circulation prepares its self for the next interval of unseasonable eastern amplitude. During that transitional period ... some ejected western heat may get caught up in the front side of the new trough (timed circa 8 days from now). It's been a broken record bias in the pattern to do so... Just when the middle/extended range operational models appear to be tentatively agreeing on lifting the westerlies to 50N over the east, some errant run drills heights seemingly without actual physical cause ... yet, guess what? The other model types agonizingly latch on and there we go again... I just see next week falling victim to the same insistence to dim summer at least excuse imaginable. I'm completely at a loss, outside of science-fiction, to explain why that's been the case. Either way, I get the feeling there will be no heat waves in the OV-NE quadrants this summer. If there is, so be it, but it would be a nested anomaly, which is to say, an anomaly relative to a cool (ah, "ish") summer. Yet, despite that preponderance, we find that most climo sites around the OV-NE aren't that far off from average. May even be a half tick or two above. Suppose that's "normal" for a world that's just come some 30 years straight on a 45 degree upward warming climate modality. 'See ... everything in nature, not just electromagnetism, has relativity about it. You are in say, 10-year warm anomaly, inside of which one may experience one of the coldest winters in their lives. This summer, if we get a bona fide heat wave (and by that I mean not chintzing around with this 89.7 suff, but a mid 90s for three days) it appears clear that relative to all, it will be like that; some vagarious emergence that takes place because of the quasi-fractal nature of atmospheric events, while in general ... the tendency is still to base-line toward a dimmed summer. Interesting. I was also thinking the other day that there is a kind of geometrical "wobble" factor that goes on. Consider a mean polar vortex; which is to say ... all the trough amplitudes and relaxations added up and divided by N events, and then draw the structure of that vortex. Firstly, the result is not a circle. These feature become ovoid. And therein is the interesting aspect for me. Sometimes the ovoid structure's axis of symmetry will align along a negative, or positive slope. When negative, intra-weekly events tend to be more intense, because they take on more negative rotation and therefore are more amplified. When positive ... the opposite is true. Again, keeping in mind that neither prevents the emergence of a nested anomaly ... relative too. Truly I have a dizzying intellect ("Princess Bride") Annyway, this summer we probably could find a mean vortex structure over eastern Canada that is negatively tilted to some degree. And that favors troughs being able to bully their way against the more longer term seasonal norm of WAR intervals. When not ...we have a kind of trough node near 90-80W ... a shear axis that's like a atmospheric levy against Sonoran/Plateau generated heat. Either or, but nary a ridge. Next week the models were attempting to overcome the ovoid (so to speak) and link a WAR construct with the western persistent ridge, but now, they appear to be ceding to the base-line yet again. We'll see. I did see a couple/few ensemble and operational runs over the past three days with 24C air over BUF during the original depictions. They're rarefied since, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Posted on Twitter so allowed here, sweet also hello Mr Lett DFW airport hit 65 this morning, breaking the record low by 2 degrees. First record low in July since 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 hearing some rumblings of a bona fide heatwave next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Yeah it looks hot later next week.yeah, but the euro op found a way to put a fly in the days of 90s ointment. It's probably a long shot though...I'd still lean toward a few days of higher heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Well his top analog was 2002 which is a moderate El Nino. He was always against a strong east-based El Nino that was long lived...but I never saw him say that he was against a solid moderate peak...or even a shotlived strong peak like 2009, 1965, and 1957. Are you on Twitter..or do you go on under Megan? I know she's on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 yeah, but the euro op found a way to put a fly in the days of 90s ointment. It's probably a long shot though...I'd still lean toward a few days of higher heat Most in the know are..and all mets certainly are. But it will only be 3-4 days of torrid stuff. Nothing long lasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Are you on Twitter..or do you go on under Megan? I know she's on there No, i dont post or read twitter, but I've read his thoughts elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Yeah it looks hot later next week. we will squeeze some upper 80s in, valleys and UHI spots 90s but roasted heat wave, nah, might be cloudy and wet though, nothing out of the ordinary for climo heat time of the year. Find a beach if you are off. Jerry I hope your retirement is long and healthy but dude you need to take some of that time off and enjoy it now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Most in the know are..and all mets certainly are. But it will only be 3-4 days of torrid stuff. Nothing long lasting LOl, yea OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Most in the know are..and all mets certainly are. But it will only be 3-4 days of torrid stuff. Nothing long lastingnot sure I'd use the word "torrid"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Most in the know are..and all mets certainly are. But it will only be 3-4 days of torrid stuff. Nothing long lasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 not sure I'd use the word "torrid"... Couple of 95/72 type days next Wed-Fri/Sat..Euro is damn slow with fropa..Details TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 not sure I'd use the word "torrid"... oddly the Mets at NWS are saying couple of degrees above normal with higher humidity but also increased chances of rain, nothing I have read has any met said torrid, heat wave, etc, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Couple of 95/72 type days next Wed-Fri/Sat..Euro is damn slow with fropa..Details TBD 95???? where, seriously? link to that data? oh yea BDL, you will be lucky to break 90 this year for the forseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 oddly the Mets at NWS are saying couple of degrees above normal with higher humidity but also increased chances of rain, nothing I have read has any met said torrid, heat wave, etc, in fairness, they are always conservative this far out. The signs are there for some hot days...ridge building in, typhoon going due west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 not sure I'd use the word "torrid"... Yeah we get about 36-48 hours of +17-18C 850s...that's pretty warm, but not really noteworthy. We still have the problem of the big heat ridge being stuck in the SW U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 in fairness, they are always conservative this far out. The signs are there for some hot days...ridge building in, typhoon going due west Study on non recurving typhoons and East Coast weather? Thats a new one on me, Mattmo is slightly re curving does that mean we have moderation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Yeah we get about 36-48 hours of +17-18C 850s...that's pretty warm, but not really noteworthy. We still have the problem of the big heat ridge being stuck in the SW U.S. Sonora heat jail locked up tighter than a pit bulls jaws on a rabitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 we will squeeze some upper 80s in, valleys and UHI spots 90s but roasted heat wave, nah, might be cloudy and wet though, nothing out of the ordinary for climo heat time of the year. Find a beach if you are off. Jerry I hope your retirement is long and healthy but dude you need to take some of that time off and enjoy it now, lol Funny you should mention it but I'm planning a beach day next Thursday the 24th. I take a lot of weeks per year. I get plenty of regular vacation days separate from sl. I usually take 4-6 weeks off every year but on principal I don't think I should use sick leave unless I'm sick or have medical/dental appointments or procedures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Funny you should mention it but I'm planning a beach day next Thursday the 24th. I take a lot of weeks per year. I get plenty of regular vacation days separate from sl. I usually take 4-6 weeks off every year but on principal I don't think I should use sick leave unless I'm sick or have medical/dental appointments or procedures. awesome, you really need to someday visit the SW RI beaches , I would gladly escort you to the hidden gems away from the touristas, mid week of course. You have that same old school work ethic I have though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I'd bet against 95/72 type heat. Looking at BDL climatology, the annual average is 1.6 hours of temperatures 95+ coincident with 72+ dew points. I should also add that when it has happened the wind direction was generally westerly to northwesterly. EDIT: The occurrences as one would expect tend to run in strings of several hourly obs, so it doesn't happen every year, maybe every other year or every third year. In the 30-year normals period only 93-94-95 and 05-06-07 had back to back annual occurrences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I'd bet against 95/72 type heat. Looking at BDL climatology, the annual average is 1.6 hours of temperatures 95+ coincident with 72+ dew points. I should also add that when it has happened the wind direction was generally westerly to northwesterly. Yeah usually when it gets that hot (95+), its due to increased drying and increased mixing, so you *typically* won't see it with 70+ dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Echoes exactly what I said in my own diatribe a bit ago... THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE MEAN...ABOVE AVG LVLS OF DEEP MSTR... AND A STNRY SFC FRONT DURING THEFIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... MAY ENCOURAGE GREATER THAN TYPICALCOVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERNSTATES ALONG WITH BELOW AVG DAYTIME TEMPS. AWAY FROM THIS AREATHE MOST PROMINENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WITH TWO FRONTS...ONE PROGRESSING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NORTHEAST/MID ATLC AND ASECOND MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY NEXT THU-FRI. CURRENTLYEXPECT THE LEADING FRONT TO HAVE THE HEAVIER RNFL WITH BESTPOTENTIAL OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY/NRN GRTLKS MON-WED. LOWCONFIDENCE SFC WAVE DETAILS WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON WHEREHEAVIEST RNFL OCCURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPSWITH SOME PLUS 10F OR GREATER ANOMALIES PSBL FOR HIGHS OVER THENRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND FOR LOWS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTOGRTLKS MON-WED. SOME OF THIS WARM AIR SHOULD REACH THE EAST FORAT LEAST A DAY OR TWO. THE W-CNTRL CONUS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ABOVENORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. And I concur this not looking (at this time) to be 3 or 4 days long, nor is it out of control torridity, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I know it's day 6-7 but the 00z ECMWF had a pretty nice low dropping down from the lakes and then off the coast. Looks clipperish or something you would normally expect in Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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