Quincy Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The Euro is actually decent on Tuesday. 10m field is relatively backed at 18z and LLJ ramps up a bit over SNE. Instability is okay at 1000-2000 J/kg, strongest from SW CT and points SW. Forcing may be more of a question mark with the front hanging back during peak heating and only fragmented pieces of shortwave energy rotating through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 interesting that sunday night was originally looking like an instability burst...now it's actually more of a frontal passage...almost like a backdoor as there's a noticeable push of drier air behind it for a time...with wind shift to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Surprised to see both GFS and NAM speed things up a bit. Decent severe threat on Tuesday as modeled. Yea the moist up looks temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 interesting that sunday night was originally looking like an instability burst...now it's actually more of a frontal passage...almost like a backdoor as there's a noticeable push of drier air behind it for a time...with wind shift to the N.in the year of Leon we note backdoor fronts and overrunning,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Yea the moist up looks temporary. we've been pretty lucky so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 IsentropicLift - first of all you can't post the Euro hires stuff on here. That's pretty clear. Secondly, I really wouldn't focus on an operational run's QPF output 4 or 5 days out for how it "looks for severe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 interesting that sunday night was originally looking like an instability burst...now it's actually more of a frontal passage...almost like a backdoor as there's a noticeable push of drier air behind it for a time...with wind shift to the N. nice looking LLJ to accompany it as well. Euro really likes the fropa on Sunday night - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Yea the moist up looks temporary. OK... but I think "moist up" is a pretty funny way to describe what looks like a really sultry/nasty couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 OK... but I think "moist up" is a pretty funny way to describe what looks like a really sultry/nasty couple days.Lol it's a play off of DITs dry downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 nice looking LLJ to accompany it as well. Euro really likes the fropa on Sunday night - interesting. also an interesting set-up on Tue if we actually have a warm front draped over the area and lifting S/N like it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 we've been pretty lucky so far.Yep, it's been a fantastic summer, bouts of rain, a tropical storm, perfect weekends, can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Compared to the past ten years according to Box this is an overachieving low dew brochure making local chamber award winning summer. http://ow.ly/i/6cEWA http://static.ow.ly/photos/thumb/6cEWA.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I don't see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 You using Euro QPF forecasts for your severe weather forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 You using Euro QPF forecasts for your severe weather forecasts? I think he's agreeing with you. He's locked in 12-24 TORs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I think he's agreeing with you. He's locked in 12-24 TORs. Adjust upwards if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I think he's agreeing with you. He's locked in 12-24 TORs. lol oh yes... I'm sure there will be a million tree topping fakenadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 You using Euro QPF forecasts for your severe weather forecasts?No I just meant I think Tuesday is going to be a moderate end risk of severe/tors for NE. I don't think that's too crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 CFS2, brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 CFS2, brrr Big winter incoming? Anyway, BTV feeling the love and the COC weather of late...what amazing days. Past two days have been 74/51 and 78/46, blue skies, light breeze. I don't care what anyone says about it not feeling like summer weather in the 70s in July...in full sun, mid/upper 70s is perfectly warm. Looks like we tickle the 40s again early in the morning, followed by low 80s with dews in the 50s. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 58/54 Super moon x3 Polar Vortex COC-a-doodle-doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 58/54 Super moon x3 Polar Vortex COC-a-doodle-doo lol. agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Was actually cold in the tent this morning. Wow what a great day,enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Was actually cold in the tent this morning. Wow what a great day,enjoy. 55° over here this morning. Can't beat that! I usually leave my fans going unless it's in the low 40s but it was a great night for sleeping. I don't mind the warm-ups as long as we get these breaks which we have been and normally do so it's been a great summer so far. 11 more days to climo peak for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 55° over here this morning. Can't beat that! I usually leave my fans going unless it's in the low 40s but it was a great night for sleeping. I don't mind the warm-ups as long as we get these breaks which we have been and normally do so it's been a great summer so far. 11 more days to climo peak for me!Yea pretty awesome night, well looks like skanky short term moist up then back to your regularly scheduled fine COC weekends. Pretty solid consensus now for number 7 in a row to be sweet. Euro Ens drop 850s in the 10 range, hottest climo time of the year too. CFS 2 keeps it sweet LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Can really feel the dews coming up now on south winds. Getting well into low and mid 60's . Beautiful out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Odds are we have a blast furnace downslope dandy Sonoran heat release someday but not in the cards anytime soon. Might be one of my favorite summer's, have not hit 90 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 87 for my high A 90 or two will come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Nicest summer of past 15? Snowiest winter of past 19 years incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 We really got a treat today with these mid 60's dews. Came in early. No business being done today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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