Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Not Leontine Steve. That's over. Note that the records expected IMHO will not occur. We in fact will average AOA for the next 2 weeks most likely. Big snow winter ahead though.records in the MW Jerry, then about as nice as pie after soupy Ville. Top ten July morning this morning ,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Could be your funniest! He quietly has some great one-liners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 So now dews in the low-mid 60's are business wx? The definition keeps changing..Tough to keep up66/55 here at camp. Man what a great night of outside sleeping. Leaving Sunday just ahead of the skank weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 So now dews in the low-mid 60's are business wx? The definition keeps changing..Tough to keep updelayed but not denied next week. We'll get some low dew sloppy seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 This is a Ginxy fantasy. Ranchi India has had 42" of rain this month. 865% of normal. Of course this can happen in their monsoon season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Another COC day in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 This is a Ginxy fantasy. Ranchi India has had 42" of rain this month. 865% of normal. Of course this can happen in their monsoon season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 midwest cold departures keep getting trimmed back on each model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 midwest cold departures keep getting trimmed back on each model cycleNot surprising. Seemed extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 midwest cold departures keep getting trimmed back on each model cycle Not a shock. Our severe/hydro threat may wind up being Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 If thAt even came close to verifying which it will end up massively modified, that would be one hell of a Severe and/ or TOR outbreak in the northeast with a closed low to our west Bounce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 eastern areas don't even get negative departures http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_0z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 i thought damage in tolland had left the board. i was all set on coming back to post regularly. damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Bounce Somebody met tag him already....kid has aligator blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 eastern areas don't even get negative departures http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_0z/tloop.html WAR is going to be stronger than progged as it has been last few summers. I'm wondering if the front ever makes it through at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 WAR is going to be stronger than progged as it has been last few summers. I'm wondering if the front ever makes it through at all. Better hope it makes it through otherwise it's going to be one wet period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 It's gonna come through. It's a highly anomalous trough that keeps digging so it will slow the front down, but it comes through. Ensembles yesterday hinted at a slow progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 eastern areas don't even get negative departures http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_0z/tloop.html Sent you a PM about this... It's pretty clear this was slated to happen, as the synoptic evolution, both by trend and by a-priori knowledge on these sort of things, didn't/don't allow such enormously deep trough axis to come E of our longitude in July. For the average reader... This is a full latitude "bobber" for lack of better word. It's like dropping a floater straight down and having it bob straight up. I think there is something deeper to this, tho, where it is harder to get a -3SD temp depature in July than January...? Counter, it's harder to get a +3SD air mass in January than July. It's like a "statistical probability for a standard deviation event" Basically... when it's warm season, it's easier to go above average and vice versa for cold season. Not sure if that is really true -- just seems that way, and here we are with a big enormous spector of an incredible anomaly that has no hope. Even for the upper MW this seems to be eroding, but that much in its self, ...everyone on this board should have known to suspect (rather than flights of enabled fantasy ...) because many of these global model-types have N-S amplitude biases out there in time. The Euro and GGEM, are particularly lubed up bed-partners in that regard, which collectively we tend to omit when said anomaly massages personal bias' ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 WAR is going to be stronger than progged as it has been last few summers. I'm wondering if the front ever makes it through at all. I have my doubt, honestly... My personal intuition on the period is that more of a frontalysis passes through ... which for the lay person means a front that is diffused and losing identity. The axis of that trough doesn't really get E of us, and then fills and forms a sort of shear axis .. Beyond that, can envision more humid and 87 time sack sticker weather E of said axis, and continental dry heat west of it. All the while this "coc" (whatever that means) stays relegated to the upper MW/Lakes. That's sort of where I'm leaning... I'm wondering what does to the convection complexion for the week. Yesterday's Euro cycles were threatening looking with remnant EML leading a v-max incursion out of PA for next Tuesday...Seems now with the trough sort of not moving E, maybe more like training heavy rainers. Who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 That's 546 thicknesses coming into the Plains. There will certainly be huge temp departures...esp if precip is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 There is a high building in with NW-N flow later this week and weekend. I fully expected cooler and drier wx...probably low 80s type stuff..or perhaps akin to what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 It's gonna come through. It's a highly anomalous trough that keeps digging so it will slow the front down, but it comes through. Ensembles yesterday hinted at a slow progression. Meh, it depends... The axis of the trough's mass was definitely progged to more actively move E until these recent runs. If it does stay west of us... I think folks are going to be surprised. Then the trough fills (like in my last post) and what are you left with ? a weak pos that does nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Mind you, I'm talking about us in SNE... Again, the coc business stays west... Tentative barring some continuity with recent trend alterations Let's not start a holy war over temperature expectations without reading precisely what the author states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Cocks west. Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Meh, it depends... The axis of the trough's mass was definitely progged to more actively move E until these recent runs. If it does stay west of us... I think folks are going to be surprised. Then the trough fills (like in my last post) and what are you left with ? a weak pos that does nothing. It does fill, but leaves a pocket of cooler 850s behind. I've seen that before..heck we sort of have that now. You get that high to move in to limit mixing..seabreezes etc. By no means does it compare to what they'll see in ORD and up into INL, but I don't see this as something that goes from 87/74 to 85/66 or something like that. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 No business like weather to be seen despite the promises. Lots of businesses will be forced to close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Arguing over 85/60 vs 77/50...you know we are in mid-summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Or 85/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Arguing over 85/60 vs 77/50...you know we are in mid-summer. It's bit more extreme than that... The original depictions were nearing historic values for a large area ...the recent evolution/trend should be considered more remarkable therefore - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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