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July Discussion


HimoorWx

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I wouldn't lock that in either at 6 days out. In the winter you guys tell us not to take anything verbatim even 3 days out..yet in summer..we're locking in an op Euro/GFS run of 82/52 for 5 straight days at day 6.

Well we're talking H5 here...not a d6 coastal storm or QPF. There's plenty of ens support for a high amplitude trough in the eastern 2/3 of the US/Can next week. The intensity and location of the heart of the cold dump is TBD. It looks fairly anomalous for mid July though.
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Well we're talking H5 here...not a d6 coastal storm or QPF. There's plenty of ens support for a high amplitude trough in the eastern 2/3 of the US/Can next week. The intensity and location of the heart of the cold dump is TBD. It looks fairly anomalous for mid July though.

Hopefully it sets up to our west so we have predominately humid/stormy conditions. A week of 80's and dry air in July would just be terribly boring
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Who said that? The fact is..we live in a humid continental climate. I'm sorry, but there's no way anyone can debate that.

 

You have no clue how they define that. None. Nice try though.  It has nothing to do with what you want summer to be. It has to do with precip amounts. 

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Recurves FTW. 

 

The first image shows the WPAC TC near SW Japan and the response  already starting in terms of the ridge building out ahead of it. Look how by 12/12z we have the ridge really build in amplitude out by the Kamchatka Peninsula and extreme NE Asia and then a response of a digging GOA low with big ridging into NW Canada. This helps lead to colder air moving into the US by the 13th. All this probably would not happen as dramatically if we didn't have a Rossby Wave train already in place. In other words, if we didn't have a ridge-rough-ridge-trough setup. The recurve basically acts to enhance the features already in place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Digging a little deeper on the updated Koppen-Geiger classification scheme and you get this description of the Dfb climate:

 

Precipitation is relatively well distributed year-round in many areas with this climate, while others may see a marked reduction in wintry precipitation and even a wintertime drought. Snowfall, regardless of average seasonal totals, occurs in all areas with a humid continental climate and in many such places is more common than rain during the height of winter. In places with sufficient wintertime precipitation, the snow cover is often deep. Most summer rainfall occurs during thunderstorms and a very occasional tropical system. Though humidity levels are often high in locations with humid continental climates, the "humid" designation does not mean that the humidity levels are necessarily high, only that the climate is not dry enough to be classified as semi-arid or arid. Very few areas with a humid continental climate fall in the Dsa or Dsb categories; generally these are adjacent to Mediterranean climates where the elevation precludes such classification due to colder winters.

 

 

and further down the page you get this:

 

The warm summer subtype is marked by mild summers, long cold winters and less precipitation than the hot summer subtype, however, short periods of extreme heat are not uncommon.

 

I've placed in bold what I think is the key point here.

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Dfb (thus all of New England) is humid continental WARM (or mild) summer. MA gets to Dfa, hot summer.

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