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July Discussion


HimoorWx

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I think that Euro (Oper) look for the D5-10 last night, and again on this 12z runs,  are a bit over cooked; a little happy to muscle the pattern toward a PNAP structure.  I wouldn't necessarily say the previous 4 -cycles in a row of subtropical ridge and continental fire is correct either, just that some consistency is warranted here.   (Heat is actually got some support in the modestly +NAO that also rises a bit more toward D10)

 

My personal hypothesis ...which may very well be full of total sh!t ... sure, is that when the Euro suddenly loses an ongoing signal it sort of runs home to momma.   Momma in this case is what I read about the Euro: it has correction schemes to smooth out false emergent forces out in time.  I think that the climatological base-line, low amplitude PNAP ( Perennial North American Pattern, which feature a flat ridge over the Rockies and a teleconnected shallow trough in the Lakes -OV-NE regions... ) is one of its corrections.  So it has lost the ridge. Now, it opts for a trough because in the absence synoptic events, that's it's empty canvas (so to speak).

 

However, it's losing the ridge is suspect in my mind.  To abrupt.   Also, the mean at the freebie site is not as amplified, nor is the GEFs camp in its entirety, either.      

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Cool AFD from MIA for my week here. Sahara dust!

 

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH FORECAST 500MB TEMPS TO BE IN
THE RANGE OF -7 TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY
JULY. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH SHOWS
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50W. FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE HIGHER VALUES APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FOR HAZY
CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR QUALITY BUT IT COULD ALSO PLAY A PART IN
OVERALL LESS CONVECTION BUT MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE
INTERESTING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE HOW MUCH
OF THE SAL AFFECTS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS.

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5th consecutive low dew sunny warm weekend, let's DEW this all summer long.

Yup..... Feels like home back in the SF Bay Area.....people ask me "how do you deal with the winter?"...... I say " please, high dews in the summer kill me more than -5 in the winter or an 18+ nor'easter in the winter.... Love seasons in New England.....grateful to have moved here...

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