Bob Chill Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 Quite a pattern we have. You think this has staying power? Looks better than the previous 2 shots this month as far as staying power goes. Quite a wall between hudson and GL. Depth is pretty good on the means. If I had to guess, the front late week could clear to near SC before retreating. That's pretty far south of us. A reinforcing shortwave or 2 appears possible to probable to continue the pattern down the line. It's pretty far out there but there is some good agreement at this lead. Last week's euro weekly run showed the same general lw pattern persisting into the first half of august. Much will depend on the staying power of the west based -nao. Looks pretty stout late week. Prob take some time to go away. We haven't had more than 3 days in a row of 90+ in June or July. Hard to bet against that kind of persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I'm starting to get nervous about winter. Day after tomorrow stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 I'm starting to get nervous about winter. Day after tomorrow stuff Yea, me too except more like 2012-13 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 FWIW, CPC gives a 78% chance of an El Nino of any strength developing by late fall. They state that current conditions suggest a "borderline moderate" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 We all want to go out with a bang...might as well have your houses fall on you from the weight of a 15 foot snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 79/68 now. Yesterday was great. 77 in the late afternoon on July 20. Can't beat it. (The high was 81.8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Yea, me too except more like 2012-13 stuff. Optimism is good for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 bubbly looking down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 lol @ talking about next winter in a July obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Looking like DCA will finish July very slightly above normal while the other two might be slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Looking like DCA will finish July very slightly above normal while the other two might be slightly below normal. Dca is running .5 as of yesterday. We could string some neg days starting Thursday. Much will depend on lows moreso than highs. It's at least possible to go neg at dca. Dulles and Bwi are prob locks based on med-lr models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Dca is running .5 as of yesterday. We could string some neg days starting Thursday. Much will depend on lows moreso than highs. It's at least possible to go neg at dca. Dulles and Bwi are prob locks based on med-lr models. Problem is that tomorrow and sat/sun all look to be decent +'s. I think that will clinch it at DCA considering the inability to cash in on the low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Problem is that tomorrow and sat/sun all look to be decent +'s. I think that will clinch it at DCA considering the inability to cash in on the low temps. No doubt that's the way to hedge. The only way would be to get lucky with a cloudy/rainy shortwave under low heights and pop a -10 or 2 somewhere during the last week. Predicting that at long leads is silly of course. Latest euro ens run is pretty impressive @ h5 the second half of next week. We'll see how it shakes out. Regardless of the final #'s, this July has been just about as nice as you could ask for overall. Not having more than 3 days in a row of 90+ in June and July @ DCA is a 10/10 in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Dca is running .5 as of yesterday. We could string some neg days starting Thursday. Much will depend on lows moreso than highs. It's at least possible to go neg at dca. Dulles and Bwi are prob locks based on med-lr models. at just below normal,I didn't know how cool a normalish BWI July really felt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 yucky outside. thats my ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 84/72 feels like July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 soupy. Feels like what July should probably feel like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 umm, was that an earthquake tremor about 11:35 am? anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 87/73 very oppressive outside. Hopefully some boomers later this evening or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 umm, was that an earthquake tremor about 11:35 am? anyone else? Nothing on the USGS map: http://tinyurl.com/msy9xb3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 88.4/74 imby...it's hot out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 umm, was that an earthquake tremor about 11:35 am? anyone else? Might have been the sweat missiles dripping from my head and hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 90/75, pretty much how July is supposed to feel around here. This summer has been a blessing. How did we make it through 2010-2012? That afternoon where the HI @ DCA topped 121 degrees? I'm not sure I could do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 87.7/75 with a heat index of 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 92/72 line of storms looks to be building up in S.E. PA. Hope it holds together as it moves S.E. My yard needs rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 93 at DCA. No off-river kick on the ob yet. 92.3 as the high at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 94/78. Have been in most of the day. Sinus headache is starting to creep up, would like some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I worked in Mom's yard this morning, pruning her 100+ azaleas. I must have lost 2-3lbs in sweat! This front can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Sub severe storm in Martinsburg but still pretty wild. Great CG strikes crashing down. Rain ponding on roadways. Saw some small branches down on one road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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