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July 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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ok it is pretty darn nice out right now. 68/57

ac is not running.

feels like fall.

this is July! where is the heat wave ?

I can't wait untill this cold snap that started last December dies.

maybe this dec to March will be super warm. maybe we will get a equator vortex :).

yeah it's nice out but isn't that what September is for!

ok I'm done crying , I have some global warming to start:p

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Scoring some record lows in July is very rare nowadays. Great to see it can still happen.

 

Since the DCA measuring location was moved into the river, only twice have there been record lows tied (none set outright) in July.  July 1, 1988 and July 6, 1979.

 

Edit - even better, in the last 25 years there have been exactly two days that have broken into the 50s at DCA.  July 2nd and 3rd, 2001.  Same as the number of days with a low of 84.

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Since the DCA measuring location was moved into the river, only twice have there been record lows tied (none set outright) in July. July 1, 1988 and July 6, 1979.

Edit - even better, in the last 25 years there have been exactly two days that have broken into the 50s at DCA. July 2nd and 3rd, 2001. Same as the number of days with a low of 84.

With the river location and very dense uhi I wouldn't be shocked if DCA never breaks a July low record again in my lifetime.

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Checking prelim monthly data, DCA/BWI/IAD are .9/.2/-.8 on the month respectively. All 3 will be below over the weekend as we add to the - departures through Tuesday. Hard to say where we go for the rest of the month. There are mixed signals in the LR. Looks AOA late next week into the weekend. The depth of the prog'd EC trough has flattened over time so my wag would be normal on the means for the last week of the month with heat early and a break late. I think the odds of the month finishing BN at all 3 airports are pretty good from what I'm seeing.

ETA: Just checked yesterday's euro weeklies. The overall LW pattern with ridge centered over the sw and general troughing over the eastern half of the country persists all the way through mid august. It's a pleasant look overall. If it verifies, at the very least it's a lower humidity pattern. August can be soupy so I'm rooting for the weeklies. lol

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Crickets in here lately.

Looks like we gradually warn through Wed-Thur and then cool a few degrees for next weekend. Still no crazy heat on the horizon.

Euro ens are trending back towards ANOTHER shot of canadian air after next weekend. GEFS is quicker but similar. West based -nao to boot so it holds for 3+ days. We'll see how it shakes out but considering we've already seen 2 so far this month I think odds favor another.
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Euro ens are trending back towards ANOTHER shot of canadian air after next weekend. GEFS is quicker but similar. West based -nao to boot so it holds for 3+ days. We'll see how it shakes out but considering we've already seen 2 so far this month I think odds favor another.

The pattern of the summer is similar to winter wrt to the warm uncomfy spells being short lived with fronts moving through and knocking back temps and dews. Bonus with the low lurking off the coast this weekend keeping it mostly cloudy and holding temps mostly in the upper 70s. The Bermuda high this week will again be transient and give us probably 2 days of low 90s with humidity before the next front arrives late week with a cooler and drier air mass. I'll take it. Must be that atmospheric memory deal.

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The pattern of the summer is similar to winter wrt to the warm uncomfy spells being short lived with fronts moving through and knocking back temps and dews. Bonus with the low lurking off the coast this weekend keeping it mostly cloudy and holding temps mostly in the upper 70s. The Bermuda high this week will again be transient and give us probably 2 days of low 90s with humidity before the next front arrives late week with a cooler and drier air mass. I'll take it. Must be that atmospheric memory deal.

give me a BN summer any year...the bonus of late has been the following winters ala 09/10 and 13/14

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Checking prelim monthly data, DCA/BWI/IAD are .9/.2/-.8 on the month respectively. All 3 will be below over the weekend as we add to the - departures through Tuesday. Hard to say where we go for the rest of the month. There are mixed signals in the LR. Looks AOA late next week into the weekend. The depth of the prog'd EC trough has flattened over time so my wag would be normal on the means for the last week of the month with heat early and a break late. I think the odds of the month finishing BN at all 3 airports are pretty good from what I'm seeing.

ETA: Just checked yesterday's euro weeklies. The overall LW pattern with ridge centered over the sw and general troughing over the eastern half of the country persists all the way through mid august. It's a pleasant look overall. If it verifies, at the very least it's a lower humidity pattern. August can be soupy so I'm rooting for the weeklies. lol

 

CPC likes a cool 6-10 and 8-14 outlook, I'm assuming the models are agreeing on that happening?

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85 is an aberrant and unsupportable high for DCA today inlight of the environs. Think only one other station got above 80. Also, this is the driest station that exists. Why is it's rh almost always 10-30% lower than surrounding stations and how can it Possibly be in a tropcial downpour and the rh is 83%???

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ok it is pretty darn nice out right now. 68/57

ac is not running.

feels like fall.

this is July! where is the heat wave ?

I can't wait untill this cold snap that started last December dies.

maybe this dec to March will be super warm. maybe we will get a equator vortex :).

yeah it's nice out but isn't that what September is for!

ok I'm done crying , I have some global warming to start:p

 

We've had a pretty normal summer this year... I think some heat lovers have been spoiled by 2010 and 2011. 

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BWI is only -.4 for the month through the 19th

awfully cool feeling for just an average July

The first 3 days racked up a head start with + anoms. Since then - days out number + days 10-6. The variability has been nice. I don't mind heat for a few days when the back gets broken by nice air.

Euro+GFS really starting to show a stable EC trough setting up late week and lasting 5+ days. Big block up in canada with ridging in the sw. Couple of sw's look to rotate underneath through that period. We're close to locking in a BN month at all 3 airports.

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