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July 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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WOW -- just 20 minutes ago we are having a drink in the sun on the deck and feel a couple drops.  I thought...bird?  Then I notice a tiny, but dark cloud right over us.  Then it starts to actually rain so I look at Radarscope and there's a developing shower so small it fills just one pixel on the expanded radar shot.  That thing has blown up right over us and it has been pouring harder for 10-15 minutes than it has in any of the storms for the last week.  We might approach an inch out of this.  And you can look in all directions and see open sky.

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WOW -- just 20 minutes ago we are having a drink in the sun on the deck and feel a couple drops.  I thought...bird?  Then I notice a tiny, but dark cloud right over us.  Then it starts to actually rain so I look at Radarscope and there's a developing shower so small it fills just one pixel on the expanded radar shot.  That thing has blown up right over us and it has been pouring harder for 10-15 minutes than it has in any of the storms for the last week.  We might approach an inch out of this.  And you can look in all directions and see open sky.

That's what I like about a pattern like this in the middle of summer.   The anything could happen stuff makes the weather interesting.  I had a crazy thunderstorm Thursday night around 9pm after it looked like everything was said and done for the day.  It had vivid CG lightning, cool looking updraft, odd movement from the north, loud booming thunder and heavy rain.  Briefly gusty winds too.  I got a quick .40" from it but the storm development, eeriness of the lowering base,  and advancement on me with the vivid lightning display was the best part.

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Despite the models poo-pooing today for storms because of a mid-level cap, it seems from water vapor that that cap has decreased via wetbulbing from storms overnight upstream in the OV. We could have shower/sub-severe storm initiation any time now if a convergence boundary set's up somewhere.

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Despite the models poo-pooing today for storms because of a mid-level cap, it seems from water vapor that that cap has decreased via wetbulbing from storms overnight upstream in the OV. We could have shower/sub-severe storm initiation any time now if a convergence boundary set's up somewhere.

I have darkening skies now.

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woo July.

 

storms don't seem to be able to sustain outside of elevation so far.

 

Those updrafts who break 20kft should be able to maintain. The multicell cluster coming over the front range near Fredrick should maintain and grow. Even though shear below 300mb is fairly uniform, there is a 50kt northerly wind at 300mb that should provide good storm top divergence.

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Euro ens run last night is pretty wet for the 15 days on the means. Looks like 3"+ for all. Not worth reading into that much though. I checked h5 and it looks like a boundary could possibly set up somewhere in the southern plains/lower tn valley. Who knows really. Looks plenty wet for the SE if things shake out like that. Mid and upper level flow is mainly sw-wsw after the cool spell.

MN, you're right about the potential for the coolest days to happen once the hp drifts ne and turns our surface flow e-ne. Looking forward to it.

Both euro ens and gefs have been trending towards ANOTHER cool shot to close the month. Anomalous trough digs in the east again as the ridge in the desert sw pumps up. Possible best July in many years? Me thinks so.

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